A study in 2015, for instance, predicted that the Earth is about to undergo a major climatic shift that could
mean decades of cooler temperatures and fewer hurricanes hitting the U.S.
A new study out of the United Kingdom predicts the Earth is about to go through a major climatic shift that could
mean decades of cooler temperatures and fewer hurricanes hitting the United States.
Not exact matches
These wind shifts
mean that air arrives in Western Europe via very different pathways in
decades when the surface
of the North Atlantic is warm, compared to
decades when it is
cool.
As the recent meltdown in Fukushima showed, the design
of these reactors» systems, such as the donut - shaped «suppression pool»
of water
meant to
cool the reactor in a crisis, showed flaws — flaws identified by regulators
decades ago.
You
mean the print books from college that were in one
of a half a dozen boxes that spent a
decade in the attic in my parents» house before they moved and I finally hauled them to the used book store to get enough store credit to trade them in for one
cool sci - fi novel I hadn't read before?
Press coverage that described this as forecasting a
decade of «global
cooling» was clearly off the mark, since the global
means (as you point out in one
of your clarifications) are flat and then rise.
To point out just a couple
of things: — oceans warming slower (or
cooling slower) than lands on long - time trends is absolutely normal, because water is more difficult both to warm or to
cool (I
mean, we require both a bigger heat flow and more time); at the contrary, I see as a non-sense theory (made by some serrist, but don't know who) that oceans are storing up heat, and that suddenly they will release such heat as a positive feedback: or the water warms than no heat can be considered ad «stored» (we have no phase change inside oceans, so no latent heat) or oceans begin to release heat but in the same time they have to
cool (because they are losing heat); so, I don't feel strange that in last years land temperatures for some series (NCDC and GISS) can be heating up while oceans are slightly
cooling, but I feel strange that they are heating up so much to reverse global trend from slightly negative / stable to slightly positive; but, in the end, all this is not an evidence that lands» warming is led by UHI (but, this effect, I would not exclude it from having a small part in temperature trends for some regional area, but just small); both because, as writtend, it is normal to have waters warming slower than lands, and because lands» temperatures are often measured in a not so precise way (despite they continue to give us a global uncertainity in TT values which is barely the instrumental's one)-- but, to point out, HadCRU and MSU
of last years (I
mean always 2002 - 2006) follow much better waters» temperatures trend; — metropolis and larger cities temperature trends actually show an increase in UHI effect, but I think the sites are few, and the covered area is very small worldwide, so the global effect is very poor (but it still can be sensible for regional effects); but I would not run out a small warming trend for airport measurements due mainly to three things: increasing jet planes traffic, enlarging airports (then more buildings and more asphalt — if you follow motor sports, or simply live in a town / city, you will know how easy they get very warmer than air during day, and how much it can slow night - time
cooling) and overall having airports nearer to cities (if not becoming an area inside the city after some
decade of hurban growth, e.g. Milan - Linate); — I found no point about UHI in towns and villages; you will tell me they are not large cities; but, in comparison with 20-40-60 years ago when they were «countryside», many small towns and villages have become part
of larger hurban areas (at least in Europe and Asia) so examining just larger cities would not be enough in my opinion to get a full view
of UHI effect (still remembering that it has a small global effect: we can say many matters are due to UHI instead
of GW, maybe even that a small part
of measured GW is due to UHI, and that GW measurements are not so precise to make us able to make good analisyses and predictions, but not that GW is due to UHI).
But the error margins for the period since 2000
mean that for the short period there is a 95 % chance that the trend is as much as warming 0.22 °C /
decade or a
cooling trend
of as much as -0.04 °C /
decade.
Along with an annual -
mean trend during the past 50 years
of about 0.1 °C /
decade averaged over Antarctica, there is a distinct seasonality to the trends, with insignificant change (and even some
cooling) in austral summer and autumn in East Antarctica, contrasting with warming in austral winter and spring.
A significant annual -
mean cooling of the lower stratosphere over the past two
decades (
of approximately 0.6 K per
decade) has been found over the mid-latitudes
of both hemispheres.»
April 11th 2018 saw the publication
of two studies (here and here) on the supposed «slowdown»
of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and what it might
mean for the climate
of Northern Latitudes in the coming
decades (
cooling, basically).
For example, Mann and Emanuel (2006) hypothesize that a reduction in aerosol - induced
cooling over the Atlantic in recent
decades may have contributed to the enhanced warming
of the tropical North Atlantic, relative to global
mean temperature.
I'd been
meaning a week ago to show the above plot (without the trend line) to Sebastian Thrun (the Santer contact I mentioned last week) to point out the apparent «defibrillating» effect
of the massive Pinatubo
cooling at 1992 (fibrillation for the two
decades before, steady heartbeat for the two after, like the sound
of a can right after being struck).
There is some prospect
of cooling from now till then so the fact that the last
decade temperate rise is exceeded at some point this
decade does not
mean it will still exceed it at the end
of the
decade.