Antartica would contribute a bit under 9.5 % of
the mean global land surface temperature and a bit under 2.8 % of the mean global surface temperature, if I have got my data right.
The difference in annual mean and 5 - year
mean global land - ocean temperature using ERSST v4 and v3b.
The challenge will be settled using the NASA GISS
mean global land surface temperatures for the conventional climate averaging period (defined by the World Meteorological Organization as 30 years) ending on December 31, 2016.
Not exact matches
The volume of
global travel
means the virus will soon
land at an airport near you, if it hasn't already.
Water changes temperature more slowly than the air or
land, which
means the
global ocean heat is likely to persist for some time.
Global mean temperatures averaged over
land and ocean surfaces, from three different estimates, each of which has been independently adjusted for various homogeneity issues, are consistent within uncertainty estimates over the period 1901 to 2005 and show similar rates of increase in recent decades.
The highest correlations between the net
land carbon flux and continental biome
mean fire weather season metrics were observed in the tropical and subtropical forests, grasslands and savannas and xeric shrublands of South America where regional fire weather season length metrics accounted for between 15.7 and 29.7 % of the variations in
global net
land carbon flux (Table 5).
ECS is defined in terms of
global mean temperature change, not separately for
land and ocean.
The lower
land - use efficiency of organic systems
means that «large - scale conversion to organic would likely require bringing more natural habitats into agricultural production,» with a potentially severe impact on
global biodiversity due to the loss of rainforests and other currently wild areas.
Warming over
land is amplified relative to
global mean by a model - dependent amount that is often around 50 %.
Also they use a 5 × 5 ° grid for the oceans (or SSTs and Shakun et al 2011) and 2 × 2 ° grid for the
land, and because of more data in the oceans, the
global mean is probably too biased toward the ocean.
The occasion of the conference provides an opportunity to place sustainable
land management (SLM),
land tenure, LDN, and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in a regional and
global context, providing the
means to enhance or adapted underlying theoretical paradigms, encourage the radical renewal of research methods and the validity of environmental change predictions, as well as to strengthen the integration between social and environmental branches of geography.
With humanity's ecological footprint of 2.7
global hectares (gha) per person
means to say that to sustain the current population on Earth of 7 billion people would take 18.9 billion gha (2.7 gha x 7 billion people) which is higher than the 13.4 billion
global hectares (gha) of biologically productive
land and water on Earth, a fact that indicates that already exceeded the regenerative capacity of the planet in the average level of current world consumption.
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The Sunshine Eaters is an original multi-sensory exhibition that highlights how artists and designers look to the
land and its plants, flowers and trees as a
means to imagine and conjure hope in the face of local and
global crises.
Ray, I think Lee Grable's point is important: The fact that we use the term «
global temperature» to
mean the average temperature on a two - dimensional surface rather than the three - dimensional ocean plus
land plus atmosphere system of the earth has the potential to allow confusion.
Overall, ecosystem - driven changes in chemistry induced climate feedbacks that increased
global mean annual
land surface temperatures by 1.4 and 2.7 K for the 2 × and 4 × CO2 Eocene simulations, respectively, and 2.2 K for the Cretaceous (Fig. 3 E and F).
These wildfires release soot into the atmosphere, which accelerates the rate of melting of glaciers, snow and ice it
lands upon, which can lead to less reflectivity,
meaning more of the sun's heat is absorbed, leading to more
global warming, which leads to even more wildfires, not to mention greater sea level rise, which is already threatening coastal areas around the world.
Lou Grinzo (12)-- I am under the impression that HadCRUTv3 uses air temperatures on
land and sea surface temperatures in the oceans to produce their
global mean.
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Given that you comment that the largest differences between the different forcings is between
land and ocean or between the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, have you looked at the
land — ocean temperature difference or the Northern — Southern Hemisphere temperature difference, as they both scale linearly with ECS, in the same way as
global mean temperature for ghg forcing, but not for aerosol forcing.
First I calculated the
land - only, ocean - only and
global mean temperatures and MSU - LT values for 5 ensemble members, then I looked at the trends in each of these timeseries and calculated the ratios.
If this bias was representative of the
land areas of the Earth, it would
mean that the IPCC underestimated the magnitude of the IPCC estimate of
global warming.»
However, the CRU
global mean combined
land air / sea surface temperature estimates for Jan - Aug 2005 lag behind the 1998 annual
mean estimate by 0.08 C (0.50 C vs. 58C for 1998) while GISS indicates a lag of 0.02 C.
For the 2005
global land - ocean index to exceed the annual 1998 record, the
mean anomaly needs to stay above 0.51 °C for the next three months.
http://www.springerlink.com/content/lm0024kv72t3841w/ «The simulated magnitude of hydrological changes over
land are much larger when compared to changes over oceans in the recent marine cloud albedo enhancement study since the radiative forcing over
land needed (− 8.2 W m − 2) to counter
global mean radiative forcing from a doubling of CO2 (3.3 W m − 2) is approximately twice the forcing needed over the oceans (− 4.2 W m − 2).
gavin, I am interested in what an x feet (for various x) increase in sea level
means as a reduction in actual
global land area but perhaps more relevantly in the resultant increase / decrease in habitable
land area (increased I imagine in Canada, Siberia, Antarctica etc).
Further, precipitation over
land is a small fraction of the total, so there's a lot of room for changes in precip there without altering the result on the
global mean.
Arguing wheter ocean or
land temperature raise to decide
global warming is no
meaning.
«The average
global temperature anomaly for combined
land and ocean surfaces for July (based on preliminary data) was 1.1 degrees F (0.6 degrees C) above the 1880 - 2004 long - term
mean.
«It is affirmed that
global atmospheric warming does not necessarily
mean a more drying atmosphere or a drier
land surface.»
Anthropogenic
global warming (AGW), a recent warming of the Earth's lower atmosphere as evidenced by the
global mean temperature anomaly trend [11], is BELIEVED to be the result of an «enhanced greenhouse effect» mainly due to human - produced increased concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere [12] and changes in the use of
land [13].
The net change over
land accounts for 24 % of the
global mean increase in precipitation, a little less than the areal proportion of
land (29 %).
Vertical
land movements such as resulting from glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA), tectonics, subsidence and sedimentation influence local sea level measurements but do not alter ocean water volume; nonetheless, they affect
global mean sea level through their alteration of the shape and hence the volume of the ocean basins containing the water.
On decadal and longer time scales,
global mean sea level change results from two major processes, mostly related to recent climate change, that alter the volume of water in the
global ocean: i) thermal expansion (Section 5.5.3), and ii) the exchange of water between oceans and other reservoirs (glaciers and ice caps, ice sheets, other
land water reservoirs - including through anthropogenic change in
land hydrology, and the atmosphere; Section 5.5.5).
By comparing modelled and observed changes in such indices, which include the
global mean surface temperature, the
land - ocean temperature contrast, the temperature contrast between the NH and SH, the
mean magnitude of the annual cycle in temperature over
land and the
mean meridional temperature gradient in the NH mid-latitudes, Braganza et al. (2004) estimate that anthropogenic forcing accounts for almost all of the warming observed between 1946 and 1995 whereas warming between 1896 and 1945 is explained by a combination of anthropogenic and natural forcing and internal variability.
So, if we could reduce the ocean blip by, say, 0.15 degC, then this would be significant for the
global mean — but we'd still have to explain the
land blip.
If the
global temperature isn't changing — that
means the
land temperature should be slightly cooling (if anything)..
At a time when the
land, water, and energy resources necessary to feed a
global population of 6.9 billion are increasingly limited - and when at least 1 billion people remain chronically hungry - food losses
mean a waste of those resources and a failure of our food system to meet the needs of the poor.
As you are aware there are major local variations from the
global pattern, with coastal
land in some regions sinking faster than the average and in other regions being uplifted with respect to
mean sea level.
So, if we could reduce the ocean blip by, say 0.15 deg C, then this would be significant for the
global mean — but we'd still have to explain the
land blip...» — Dr. Tom Wigley, University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, on adjusting
global temperature data, disclosed Climategate e-mail to Phil Jones, Sep. 28, 2008
Since then there are a number of papers published on why the warming was statistically insignificant including a recent one by Richardson et al. 2016 which tries to explain that the models were projecting a
global tas (temperature air surface) but the actual observations are a combination of tas (
land) and SST oceans,
meaning projected warming shouldn't be as much as projected.
Many agricultural regions warm at a rate that is faster than the
global mean surface temperature (including oceans) but slower than the
mean land surface temperature, leading to regional warming that exceeds 0.5 °C between the +1.5 and +2.0 °C Worlds.
Monthly averages of
global mean surface temperature (GMST) include natural variability, and they are influenced by the differing heat capacities of the oceans and
land masses.
When the earth's temperature rises on average by more than two degrees, interactions between different consequences of
global warming (reduction in the area of arable
land, unexpected crop failures, extinction of diverse plant and animal species) combined with increasing populations
mean that hundreds of millions of people may die from starvation or disease in future famines.
The evolution of
global mean surface temperatures, zonal
means and fields of sea surface temperatures,
land surface temperatures, precipitation, outgoing longwave radiation, vertically integrated diabatic heating and divergence of atmospheric energy transports, and ocean heat content in the Pacific is documented using correlation and regression analysis.
The fact that
global warming has been happening «naturally» since the end of the last ice age
means that it is happening spontaneously completely independent of the need for that warming to be caused by the sun heating the oceans (and
land of course).
The fact this is seemingly not fully recognized — or here integrated — by Curry goes to the same reason Curry does not recognize why the so called «pause» is a fiction, why the «slowing» of the «rate» of increase in average ambient
global land and ocean surface air temperatures over a shorter term period from the larger spike beyond the longer term
mean of the 90s is also meaningless in terms of the basic issue, and why the average ambient increase in
global air temperatures over such a short term is by far the least important empirical indicia of the issue.
What this
means is that the question of whether or not urban areas are representative of the world's
land area is completely separate from this question: That speaks instead to the question of whether an urban trend can be legitimately interpreted as a
global trend.
For example, at 4 °C of
global land surface warming (510 — 758 ppm of CO2), vegetation carbon increases by 52 — 477 Pg C (224 Pg C
mean), mainly due to CO2 fertilization of photosynthesis.