Changes in
mean global ocean pH / pCO2, due to uptake of anthropogenic CO2, will reduce pH (ca − 0.3 to 0.5 units / 500 + µatm), and global warming will contribute to increased sea surface temperature (+1.1 to 6.4 °C), by 2100 [1 — 4,7].
Water changes temperature more slowly than the air or land, which
means the global ocean heat is likely to persist for some time.
Researchers found the magnitude of the moon's very slight wobble, as it orbits Saturn, can only be accounted for if its outer ice shell is not frozen solid to its interior,
meaning a global ocean must be present.
Not exact matches
The paper notes that
ocean warming around Greenland may be almost double the
global mean by 2100.
The iron deprivation
means that estimates of
global ocean carbon uptake are probably 2 to 4 percent too high, the group reports in the August 31 Nature.
The ability of the
oceans to take up carbon dioxide can not keep up with the rising levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, which
means carbon dioxide and
global temperatures will continue to increase unless humans cut their carbon dioxide emissions.
However, the discovery in 2015 of an oscillation in Enceladus's rotation known as a libration, which is linked to tidal effects, suggests that it has a
global ocean and a much thinner ice shell than predicted, with a
mean thickness of around 20 km.
As
global warming affects the earth and
ocean, the retreat of the sea ice
means there won't be as much cold, dense water, generated through a process known as oceanic convection, created to flow south and feed the Gulf Stream.
Much of Pres. Donald Trump's Mar - a-Lago country club in Palm Beach, Fla., sits less than two meters above the Atlantic
Ocean,
meaning big parts of the resort could rest beneath the waves by the end of this century as seas rise in response to
global warming.
And
global shipping traffic has increased fourfold since 1990 —
meaning that the
ocean area available to reflect away heat is only expected to grow.
A working group known as PALSEA2 (Paleo constraints on sea level rise) used past records of local change in sea level and converted them to a
global mean sea level by predicting how the surface of the Earth deforms due to changes in ice -
ocean loading of the crust, along with changes in gravitational attraction on the
ocean surface.
He said he does think, however, that there will a broader shift to warmer
ocean conditions that will last for several years and that
means that
global temperatures will hover around the level they have recently reached before moving upward again, like stairs on a staircase.
g (acceleration due to gravity) G (gravitational constant) G star G1.9 +0.3 gabbro Gabor, Dennis (1900 — 1979) Gabriel's Horn Gacrux (Gamma Crucis) gadolinium Gagarin, Yuri Alexeyevich (1934 — 1968) Gagarin Cosmonaut Training Center GAIA Gaia Hypothesis galactic anticenter galactic bulge galactic center Galactic Club galactic coordinates galactic disk galactic empire galactic equator galactic habitable zone galactic halo galactic magnetic field galactic noise galactic plane galactic rotation galactose Galatea GALAXIES galaxy galaxy cannibalism galaxy classification galaxy formation galaxy interaction galaxy merger Galaxy, The Galaxy satellite series Gale Crater Galen (c. AD 129 — c. 216) galena GALEX (Galaxy Evolution Explorer) Galilean satellites Galilean telescope Galileo (Galilei, Galileo)(1564 — 1642) Galileo (spacecraft) Galileo Europa Mission (GEM) Galileo satellite navigation system gall gall bladder Galle, Johann Gottfried (1812 — 1910) gallic acid gallium gallon gallstone Galois, Évariste (1811 — 1832) Galois theory Galton, Francis (1822 — 1911) Galvani, Luigi (1737 — 1798) galvanizing galvanometer game game theory GAMES AND PUZZLES gamete gametophyte Gamma (Soviet orbiting telescope) Gamma Cassiopeiae Gamma Cassiopeiae star gamma function gamma globulin gamma rays Gamma Velorum gamma - ray burst gamma - ray satellites Gamow, George (1904 — 1968) ganglion gangrene Ganswindt, Hermann (1856 — 1934) Ganymede «garbage theory», of the origin of life Gardner, Martin (1914 — 2010) Garneau, Marc (1949 ---RRB- garnet Garnet Star (Mu Cephei) Garnet Star Nebula (IC 1396) garnierite Garriott, Owen K. (1930 ---RRB- Garuda gas gas chromatography gas constant gas giant gas laws gas - bounded nebula gaseous nebula gaseous propellant gaseous - propellant rocket engine gasoline Gaspra (minor planet 951) Gassendi, Pierre (1592 — 1655) gastric juice gastrin gastrocnemius gastroenteritis gastrointestinal tract gastropod gastrulation Gatewood, George D. (1940 ---RRB- Gauer - Henry reflex gauge boson gauge theory gauss (unit) Gauss, Carl Friedrich (1777 — 1855) Gaussian distribution Gay - Lussac, Joseph Louis (1778 — 1850) GCOM (
Global Change Observing Mission) Geber (c. 720 — 815) gegenschein Geiger, Hans Wilhelm (1882 — 1945) Geiger - Müller counter Giessler tube gel gelatin Gelfond's theorem Gell - Mann, Murray (1929 ---RRB- GEM «gemination,» of martian canals Geminga Gemini (constellation) Gemini Observatory Gemini Project Gemini - Titan II gemstone gene gene expression gene mapping gene pool gene therapy gene transfer General Catalogue of Variable Stars (GCVS) general precession general theory of relativity generation ship generator Genesis (inflatable orbiting module) Genesis (sample return probe) genetic code genetic counseling genetic disorder genetic drift genetic engineering genetic marker genetic material genetic pool genetic recombination genetics GENETICS AND HEREDITY Geneva Extrasolar Planet Search Program genome genome, interstellar transmission of genotype gentian violet genus geoboard geode geodesic geodesy geodesy satellites geodetic precession Geographos (minor planet 1620) geography GEOGRAPHY Geo - IK geologic time geology GEOLOGY AND PLANETARY SCIENCE geomagnetic field geomagnetic storm geometric
mean geometric sequence geometry GEOMETRY geometry puzzles geophysics GEOS (Geodetic Earth Orbiting Satellite) Geosat geostationary orbit geosynchronous orbit geosynchronous / geostationary transfer orbit (GTO) geosyncline Geotail (satellite) geotropism germ germ cells Germain, Sophie (1776 — 1831) German Rocket Society germanium germination Gesner, Konrad von (1516 — 1565) gestation Get Off the Earth puzzle Gettier problem geyser g - force GFO (Geosat Follow - On) GFZ - 1 (GeoForschungsZentrum) ghost crater Ghost Head Nebula (NGC 2080) ghost image Ghost of Jupiter (NGC 3242) Giacconi, Riccardo (1931 ---RRB- Giacobini - Zinner, Comet (Comet 21P /) Giaever, Ivar (1929 ---RRB- giant branch Giant Magellan Telescope giant molecular cloud giant planet giant star Giant's Causeway Giauque, William Francis (1895 — 1982) gibberellins Gibbs, Josiah Willard (1839 — 1903) Gibbs free energy Gibson, Edward G. (1936 ---RRB- Gilbert, William (1544 — 1603) gilbert (unit) Gilbreath's conjecture gilding gill gill (unit) Gilruth, Robert R. (1913 — 2000) gilsonite gimbal Ginga ginkgo Giotto (ESA Halley probe) GIRD (Gruppa Isutcheniya Reaktivnovo Dvisheniya) girder glacial drift glacial groove glacier gland Glaser, Donald Arthur (1926 — 2013) Glashow, Sheldon (1932 ---RRB- glass GLAST (Gamma - ray Large Area Space Telescope) Glauber, Johann Rudolf (1607 — 1670) glaucoma glauconite Glenn, John Herschel, Jr. (1921 ---RRB- Glenn Research Center Glennan, T (homas) Keith (1905 — 1995) glenoid cavity glia glial cell glider Gliese 229B Gliese 581 Gliese 67 (HD 10307, HIP 7918) Gliese 710 (HD 168442, HIP 89825) Gliese 86 Gliese 876 Gliese Catalogue glioma glissette glitch
Global Astrometric Interferometer for Astrophysics (GAIA)
Global Oscillation Network Group (GONG) Globalstar globe Globigerina globular cluster globular proteins globule globulin globus pallidus GLOMR (
Global Low Orbiting Message Relay) GLONASS (
Global Navigation Satellite System) glossopharyngeal nerve Gloster E. 28/39 glottis glow - worm glucagon glucocorticoid glucose glucoside gluon Glushko, Valentin Petrovitch (1908 — 1989) glutamic acid glutamine gluten gluteus maximus glycerol glycine glycogen glycol glycolysis glycoprotein glycosidic bond glycosuria glyoxysome GMS (Geosynchronous Meteorological Satellite) GMT (Greenwich
Mean Time) Gnathostomata gneiss Go Go, No - go goblet cell GOCE (Gravity field and steady - state
Ocean Circulation Explorer) God Goddard, Robert Hutchings (1882 — 1945) Goddard Institute for Space Studies Goddard Space Flight Center Gödel, Kurt (1906 — 1978) Gödel universe Godwin, Francis (1562 — 1633) GOES (Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite) goethite goiter gold Gold, Thomas (1920 — 2004) Goldbach conjecture golden ratio (phi) Goldin, Daniel Saul (1940 ---RRB- gold - leaf electroscope Goldstone Tracking Facility Golgi, Camillo (1844 — 1926) Golgi apparatus Golomb, Solomon W. (1932 — 2016) golygon GOMS (Geostationary Operational Meteorological Satellite) gonad gonadotrophin - releasing hormone gonadotrophins Gondwanaland Gonets goniatite goniometer gonorrhea Goodricke, John (1764 — 1786) googol Gordian Knot Gordon, Richard Francis, Jr. (1929 — 2017) Gore, John Ellard (1845 — 1910) gorge gorilla Gorizont Gott loop Goudsmit, Samuel Abraham (1902 — 1978) Gould, Benjamin Apthorp (1824 — 1896) Gould, Stephen Jay (1941 — 2002) Gould Belt gout governor GPS (Global Positioning System) Graaf, Regnier de (1641 — 1673) Graafian follicle GRAB graben GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment) graceful graph gradient Graham, Ronald (1935 ---RRB- Graham, Thomas (1805 — 1869) Graham's law of diffusion Graham's number GRAIL (Gravity Recovery and Interior Laboratory) grain (cereal) grain (unit) gram gram - atom Gramme, Zénobe Théophile (1826 — 1901) gramophone Gram's stain Gran Telescopio Canarias (GTC) Granat Grand Tour grand unified theory (GUT) Grandfather Paradox Granit, Ragnar Arthur (1900 — 1991) granite granulation granule granulocyte graph graph theory graphene graphite GRAPHS AND GRAPH THEORY graptolite grass grassland gravel graveyard orbit gravimeter gravimetric analysis Gravitational Biology Facility gravitational collapse gravitational constant (G) gravitational instability gravitational lens gravitational life gravitational lock gravitational microlensing GRAVITATIONAL PHYSICS gravitational slingshot effect gravitational waves graviton gravity gravity gradient gravity gradient stabilization Gravity Probe A Gravity Probe B gravity - assist gray (Gy) gray goo gray matter grazing - incidence telescope Great Annihilator Great Attractor great circle Great Comets Great Hercules Cluster (M13, NGC 6205) Great Monad Great Observatories Great Red Spot Great Rift (in Milky Way) Great Rift Valley Great Square of Pegasus Great Wall greater omentum greatest elongation Green, George (1793 — 1841) Green, Nathaniel E. Green, Thomas Hill (1836 — 1882) green algae Green Bank Green Bank conference (1961) Green Bank Telescope green flash greenhouse effect greenhouse gases Green's theorem Greg, Percy (1836 — 1889) Gregorian calendar Grelling's paradox Griffith, George (1857 — 1906) Griffith Observatory Grignard, François Auguste Victor (1871 — 1935) Grignard reagent grike Grimaldi, Francesco Maria (1618 — 1663) Grissom, Virgil (1926 — 1967) grit gritstone Groom Lake Groombridge 34 Groombridge Catalogue gross ground, electrical ground state ground - track group group theory GROUPS AND GROUP THEORY growing season growth growth hormone growth hormone - releasing hormone growth plate Grudge, Project Gruithuisen, Franz von Paula (1774 — 1852) Grus (constellation) Grus Quartet (NGC 7552, NGC 7582, NGC 7590, and NGC 7599) GSLV (Geosynchronous Satellite Launch Vehicle) g - suit G - type asteroid Guericke, Otto von (1602 — 1686) guanine Guiana Space Centre guidance, inertial Guide Star Catalog (GSC) guided missile guided missiles, postwar development Guillaume, Charles Édouard (1861 — 1938) Gulf Stream (ocean current) Gulfstream (jet plane) Gullstrand, Allvar (1862 — 1930) gum Gum Nebula gun metal gunpowder Gurwin Gusev Crater gut Gutenberg, Johann (c. 1400 — 1468) Guy, Richard Kenneth (1916 ---RRB- guyot Guzman Prize gymnosperm gynecology gynoecium gypsum gyrocompass gyrofrequency gyropilot gyroscope gyrostabilizer Gyulbudagian's Nebula (H
Ocean Circulation Explorer) God Goddard, Robert Hutchings (1882 — 1945) Goddard Institute for Space Studies Goddard Space Flight Center Gödel, Kurt (1906 — 1978) Gödel universe Godwin, Francis (1562 — 1633) GOES (Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite) goethite goiter gold Gold, Thomas (1920 — 2004) Goldbach conjecture golden ratio (phi) Goldin, Daniel Saul (1940 ---RRB- gold - leaf electroscope Goldstone Tracking Facility Golgi, Camillo (1844 — 1926) Golgi apparatus Golomb, Solomon W. (1932 — 2016) golygon GOMS (Geostationary Operational Meteorological Satellite) gonad gonadotrophin - releasing hormone gonadotrophins Gondwanaland Gonets goniatite goniometer gonorrhea Goodricke, John (1764 — 1786) googol Gordian Knot Gordon, Richard Francis, Jr. (1929 — 2017) Gore, John Ellard (1845 — 1910) gorge gorilla Gorizont Gott loop Goudsmit, Samuel Abraham (1902 — 1978) Gould, Benjamin Apthorp (1824 — 1896) Gould, Stephen Jay (1941 — 2002) Gould Belt gout governor GPS (
Global Positioning System) Graaf, Regnier de (1641 — 1673) Graafian follicle GRAB graben GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment) graceful graph gradient Graham, Ronald (1935 ---RRB- Graham, Thomas (1805 — 1869) Graham's law of diffusion Graham's number GRAIL (Gravity Recovery and Interior Laboratory) grain (cereal) grain (unit) gram gram - atom Gramme, Zénobe Théophile (1826 — 1901) gramophone Gram's stain Gran Telescopio Canarias (GTC) Granat Grand Tour grand unified theory (GUT) Grandfather Paradox Granit, Ragnar Arthur (1900 — 1991) granite granulation granule granulocyte graph graph theory graphene graphite GRAPHS AND GRAPH THEORY graptolite grass grassland gravel graveyard orbit gravimeter gravimetric analysis Gravitational Biology Facility gravitational collapse gravitational constant (G) gravitational instability gravitational lens gravitational life gravitational lock gravitational microlensing GRAVITATIONAL PHYSICS gravitational slingshot effect gravitational waves graviton gravity gravity gradient gravity gradient stabilization Gravity Probe A Gravity Probe B gravity - assist gray (Gy) gray goo gray matter grazing - incidence telescope Great Annihilator Great Attractor great circle Great Comets Great Hercules Cluster (M13, NGC 6205) Great Monad Great Observatories Great Red Spot Great Rift (in Milky Way) Great Rift Valley Great Square of Pegasus Great Wall greater omentum greatest elongation Green, George (1793 — 1841) Green, Nathaniel E. Green, Thomas Hill (1836 — 1882) green algae Green Bank Green Bank conference (1961) Green Bank Telescope green flash greenhouse effect greenhouse gases Green's theorem Greg, Percy (1836 — 1889) Gregorian calendar Grelling's paradox Griffith, George (1857 — 1906) Griffith Observatory Grignard, François Auguste Victor (1871 — 1935) Grignard reagent grike Grimaldi, Francesco Maria (1618 — 1663) Grissom, Virgil (1926 — 1967) grit gritstone Groom Lake Groombridge 34 Groombridge Catalogue gross ground, electrical ground state ground - track group group theory GROUPS AND GROUP THEORY growing season growth growth hormone growth hormone - releasing hormone growth plate Grudge, Project Gruithuisen, Franz von Paula (1774 — 1852) Grus (constellation) Grus Quartet (NGC 7552, NGC 7582, NGC 7590, and NGC 7599) GSLV (Geosynchronous Satellite Launch Vehicle) g - suit G - type asteroid Guericke, Otto von (1602 — 1686) guanine Guiana Space Centre guidance, inertial Guide Star Catalog (GSC) guided missile guided missiles, postwar development Guillaume, Charles Édouard (1861 — 1938) Gulf Stream (
ocean current) Gulfstream (jet plane) Gullstrand, Allvar (1862 — 1930) gum Gum Nebula gun metal gunpowder Gurwin Gusev Crater gut Gutenberg, Johann (c. 1400 — 1468) Guy, Richard Kenneth (1916 ---RRB- guyot Guzman Prize gymnosperm gynecology gynoecium gypsum gyrocompass gyrofrequency gyropilot gyroscope gyrostabilizer Gyulbudagian's Nebula (H
ocean current) Gulfstream (jet plane) Gullstrand, Allvar (1862 — 1930) gum Gum Nebula gun metal gunpowder Gurwin Gusev Crater gut Gutenberg, Johann (c. 1400 — 1468) Guy, Richard Kenneth (1916 ---RRB- guyot Guzman Prize gymnosperm gynecology gynoecium gypsum gyrocompass gyrofrequency gyropilot gyroscope gyrostabilizer Gyulbudagian's Nebula (HH215)
Averaged across the
global ocean,
mean MHW durations have become significantly longer by 1.3 days per decade (p < 0.01) since 1982.
MHW intensity between 1982 — 1998 and 2000 — 2016 increased in over 65 % of the
global ocean, most notably in all five western boundary current regions, where the
mean warming has been considerably faster than the
global average39, and most mid-latitude
ocean basins (Fig. 1e).
Global mean temperatures averaged over land and
ocean surfaces, from three different estimates, each of which has been independently adjusted for various homogeneity issues, are consistent within uncertainty estimates over the period 1901 to 2005 and show similar rates of increase in recent decades.
(Top left)
Global annual
mean radiative influences (W m — 2) of LGM climate change agents, generally feedbacks in glacial - interglacial cycles, but also specified in most Atmosphere -
Ocean General Circulation Model (AOGCM) simulations for the LGM.
«
Global mean time series of surface - and satellite - observed low - level and total cloud cover exhibit very large discrepancies, however, implying that artifacts exist in one or both data sets... The surface - observed low - level cloud cover time series averaged over the global ocean appears suspicious because it reports a very large 5 % - sky - cover increase between 1952 and
Global mean time series of surface - and satellite - observed low - level and total cloud cover exhibit very large discrepancies, however, implying that artifacts exist in one or both data sets... The surface - observed low - level cloud cover time series averaged over the
global ocean appears suspicious because it reports a very large 5 % - sky - cover increase between 1952 and
global ocean appears suspicious because it reports a very large 5 % - sky - cover increase between 1952 and 1997.
Based on the linear trend, for the 0 to 3,000 m layer for the period 1961 to 2003 there has been an increase of
ocean heat content of approximately 14.2 ± 2.4 × 1022 J, corresponding to a
global ocean volume
mean temperature increase of 0.037 °C during this period.
However, comparison of the
global, annual
mean time series of near - surface temperature (approximately 0 to 5 m depth) from this analysis and the corresponding SST series based on a subset of the International Comprehensive
Ocean - Atmosphere Data Set (ICOADS) database (approximately 134 million SST observations; Smith and Reynolds, 2003 and additional data) shows a high correlation (r = 0.96) for the period 1955 to 2005.
If all of this energy went into an accumulation of temperature in the upper 100 m of the
global oceans, we would see an upper
mean 100 m
global ocean temperature increase of 1.1 oC.»
On shorter time scales, however, changes in heat storage (i.e.,
ocean heat uptake or release) can affect
global mean temperature.
ECS is defined in terms of
global mean temperature change, not separately for land and
ocean.
She is also a Nereus fellow, which
means she is part of the collaborative Nereus program between six leading marine science institutes with the aim of undertaking research that advances our comprehensive understandings of the
global ocean systems across the natural and social sciences, from oceanography and marine ecology to fisheries economics and impacts on coastal communities.
Given the impacts of adding 120 meters equivalent of
global mean sea level equivalent of freshwater to the system are unlikely to be negligible on
ocean circulation and biological activity.
The diagnostics, which are used to compare model - simulated and observed changes, are often simple temperature indices such as the
global mean surface temperature and
ocean mean warming (Knutti et al., 2002, 2003) or the differential warming between the SH and NH (together with the
global mean; Andronova and Schlesinger, 2001).
A large ensemble of Earth system model simulations, constrained by geological and historical observations of past climate change, demonstrates our self ‐ adjusting mitigation approach for a range of climate stabilization targets ranging from 1.5 to 4.5 °C, and generates AMP scenarios up to year 2300 for surface warming, carbon emissions, atmospheric CO2,
global mean sea level, and surface
ocean acidification.
The Fourth Assessment Report finds that «Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in
global average air and
ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising
mean sea level.
Also they use a 5 × 5 ° grid for the
oceans (or SSTs and Shakun et al 2011) and 2 × 2 ° grid for the land, and because of more data in the
oceans, the
global mean is probably too biased toward the
ocean.
This approach accounts for the delayed response of the climate system caused by the large thermal inertia of the
ocean, yielding a
global mean temporal response in close accord with that obtained from
global climate models.
While every storm has its own characteristics and quirks, this one being particularly unusual, a warming
global ocean means we're likely to see more storms of this strength in future.
a)
global mean thermosteric sea level anomaly (b) and zonal
mean ocean temperature at 792.5 mtrs, 66 S (the Southern Oc
ocean temperature at 792.5 mtrs, 66 S (the Southern
OceanOcean).
Ray, I think Lee Grable's point is important: The fact that we use the term «
global temperature» to
mean the average temperature on a two - dimensional surface rather than the three - dimensional
ocean plus land plus atmosphere system of the earth has the potential to allow confusion.
Human influence has been detected in warming of the atmosphere and the
ocean, in changes in the
global water cycle, in reductions in snow and ice, in
global mean sea level rise, and in changes in some climate extremes.
If
mean global temperatures trending significantly upward over the last 100 years isn't worrying enough for you, how about that giant piece of Antarctica that is about to crack off and sink into the
ocean... I don't know how the existence of
global warming is still a debate!
By 2100, the
ocean uptake rate of 5 Gt C yr - 1 is balanced by the terrestrial carbon source, and atmospheric CO2 concentrations are 250 p.p.m.v. higher in our fully coupled simulation than in uncoupled carbon models2, resulting in a
global -
mean warming of 5.5 K, as compared to 4 K without the carbon - cycle feedback.
I don't think we really have a good idea yet of what a newly open
ocean at the top of the world will
mean for
global climate.
Note that this sampling noise in the tide gauge data most likely comes from the water sloshing around in the
ocean under the influence of winds etc., which looks like sea - level change if you only have a very limited number of measurement points, although this process can not actually change the true
global -
mean sea level.
Since the CMIP5 models used by the IPCC on average adequately reproduce observed
global warming in the last two and a half decades of the 20th century without any contribution from multidecadal
ocean variability, it follows that those models (whose
mean TCR is slightly over 1.8 °C) must be substantially too sensitive.
: Re sunshades, yes, what LG said at 14, plus, the shades do nothing to reduce the
ocean acidification... why would we want to expend the energy and resources to treat a symptom of planetary CO2 poisoning and take all the risks that LG describes when it pretty clear that the best approach is a wildly ambitious conversion to very low emission energy / transportation / agriculture systems **** concurrent with, and achieved by the same
means, *** a wildly ambitious
global program of CO2 sequestration / removal... and... under *** 300 ppm *** in 20 — 100 years, at most?
The current Landsea / Trenberth / Emanuel discussion has been parsed by many to
mean that Landsea claims that the number of hurricanes is constant, and Trenberth is claiming that their intensity should increase as
global warming heats the
ocean surface.
These parameters include
global mean surface temperature, sea - level rise,
ocean and ice sheet dynamics,
ocean acidification, and extreme climatic events.
Lou Grinzo (12)-- I am under the impression that HadCRUTv3 uses air temperatures on land and sea surface temperatures in the
oceans to produce their
global mean.
I particularly enjoyed the slides that, when combined (1) provided an overview of hotter and cooler CO2 molecules as it relates to how they are seen from outer space and from profile — because this will make it easier for me to explain this process to others; (2) walked through the volcanic and solar activity vs assigning importance to CO2 changes — because this another way to help make it clearer, too, but in another way; (3) discussed CO2 induced warming and
ocean rise vs different choices we might make — because this helps point out why every day's delay matters; and (4) showed Figure 1 from William Nordhaus» «Strategies for Control of Carbon Dioxide» and then super-imposed upon that the
global mean temperature in colors showing pre-paper and post-paper periods — because this helps to show just how far back it was possible to make reasoned projections without the aid of a more nuanced and modern understanding.
Temporarily, you can also store heat in the
ocean or release it, but the scope for changes in
global mean temperature through this mechanism is quite limited.
First,
global mean surface temperature depends on the quantity of heat stored at the surface of the earth (earth, lower atmosphere, and the mixed layer of the
oceans).
Given that you comment that the largest differences between the different forcings is between land and
ocean or between the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, have you looked at the land —
ocean temperature difference or the Northern — Southern Hemisphere temperature difference, as they both scale linearly with ECS, in the same way as
global mean temperature for ghg forcing, but not for aerosol forcing.
First I calculated the land - only,
ocean - only and
global mean temperatures and MSU - LT values for 5 ensemble members, then I looked at the trends in each of these timeseries and calculated the ratios.
This
means that the heat content was «reset» to this earlier value, whereas the multi-decadal
global climate model projects a more - or-less monotonic increase in
ocean heat content.
Corrections to the
global mean are obviously less than for the
oceans alone (since they comprise 70 % of the surface) and that is taken into account above.