I have no reason to doubt that global warming is increasing
mean global rainfall, and I've certainly never said anything different.
Not exact matches
But the
global -
mean rainfall is thermodynamically constrained to increase more slowly, so we expect a general tendency to increased drought as well.
Most of the focus has been on the
global mean temperature trend in the models and observations (it would certainly be worthwhile to look at some more subtle metrics —
rainfall, latitudinal temperature gradients, Hadley circulation etc. but that's beyond the scope of this post).
The review by O'Gorman et al (3) reports that a 1C increase in
global mean temperature will result in a 2 % — 7 % increase in the precipitation rate; the lower values are results of GCM output, and the upper values are results from regressing estimated annual
rainfalls on annual
mean temperatures.
Most of the focus has been on the
global mean temperature trend in the models and observations (it would certainly be worthwhile to look at some more subtle metrics —
rainfall, latitudinal temperature gradients, Hadley circulation etc. but that's beyond the scope of this post).
But the issue is not really the
global mean temperature (even though that is what is usually plotted), but the distribution of temperature change,
rainfall patterns, winds, sea ice etc..
This in turn may
mean that something other than
global temperature - for example,
rainfall - has changed much more in X than in Y.
One thing that does seem clear is that warmer oceans (a la
global warming)
mean more evaporation, and that likely leads to storms with more and more dangerous
rainfall of the kind we saw with Hurricane Irene last year.
Where is the evidence that the combination of increased
global mean temp, increased
global rainfall, and increased CO2 has produced changes for the worse?
Perhaps with all that is known now, someone will propose a well - defined multivariate test entailing all relevant
global data (including Antarctic ice extent and total Antarctic ice mass,
mean and extremal
rainfall everywhere,
mean and extremal cyclonic storms everywhere.)
The steady increase in
global temperatures, including average temperatures in Australia,
means that even when
rainfall is at or near the historical average, conditions are drier than before because evaporation rates are higher.
They estimate that Harvey's
rainfall was probably almost 19 percent higher due to
global warming, which also
means the probability of a storm of Harvey's size is now 3.5 times more likely.
«Absrtact: Wentz et al. (Reports, 13 July 2007, p. 233) present a satellite estimate of
global -
mean rainfall that increases with
global warming faster than predicted by climate models.
Can you tell what will happen in the climate (
global mean temp or
rainfall perhaps) when the concentration of CO2 doubles?
With one such «control parameter» one could control exactly one property of the climate system, for example, the
global mean temperature or the temperature in China or the
rainfall in the United States.
One of the points on which Prof Curry and Dr. Schmidt agree is that attribution requires a comparison of the actual data (
global mean temp,
global mean rainfall, etc) to a model of what would have happened absent human alteration of the Earth surface and atmosphere.
For example, extremes of
rainfall (at both the high and low ends) are predicted to increase, but the
global mean rainfall should only increase very slightly.
How many elk will die if
global warming
means that there's no longer the right amount of
rainfall in Yellowstone?
There are corollary benefits: - «Organic agriculture's use of compost and crop diversity
means it will also be able to better withstand the higher temperatures and more variable
rainfall expected with
global warming».
a The
global mean surface temperature impact is also a proxy for the many additional climate impacts that occur alongside
global mean temperature change, including changes in sea - level,
rainfall, heatwaves, etc