I think some such mechanism is necessary to account for the variations in
mean global temperature associated with the oceanic oscilations.
Not exact matches
As discussed elsewhere on this site, modeling studies indicate that the modest cooling of hemispheric or
global mean temperatures during the 15th - 19th centuries (relative to the warmer
temperatures of the 11th - 14th centuries) appears to have been
associated with a combination of lowered solar irradiance and a particularly intense period of explosive volcanic activity.
The
global mean temperature rise of less than 1 degree C in the past century does not seem like much, but it is
associated with a winter
temperature rise of 3 to 4 degrees C over most of the Arctic in the past 20 years, unprecedented loss of ice from all the tropical glaciers, a decrease of 15 to 20 % in late summer sea ice extent, rising sealevel, and a host of other measured signs of anomalous and rapid climate change.
The uncertainties
associated with reconstructing hemispheric
mean or
global mean temperatures from these data increase substantially backward in time through this period and are not yet fully quantified.
Time evolution of the
global mean temperature (upper blue curve), forcings
associated with CO2 (green), galactic cosmic rays (grey; from CLIMAX and plotted as -1 x GCR), total solar irradiance (light blue), and the sunspot number (red, bottom)
An increase in data coverage will affect the estimated variance and one - year autocorrelation
associated with the
global mean temperature, which also should influence the the metric.
The term «climate sensitivity» refers to the steady - state increase in the
global annual
mean surface air
temperature associated with a given
global mean radiative forcing.
«It has been well known for many years that ENSO is
associated with significant variability in
global mean temperatures on interannual timescales.
Our study suggests that these patterns may also exist in deseasonalized monthly
means of the measured
temperature record in the post industrial era, a period that is normally
associated with
global warming and climate change.
The uncertainties
associated with reconstructing hemispheric
mean or
global mean temperatures from these data increase substantially backward in time through this period and are not yet fully quantified.
If you look at the increase in
global mean temperature over the last fifty years, the vast majority of that is
associated with human activity and the burning of fossil fuels.
A set of Monte Carlo simulations nevertheless indicated that the weak amplitude of the
global mean temperature response
associated with GCR could easily be due to chance (p - value = 0.6), and there has been no trend in the GCR.
Future
global vegetation carbon change calculated by seven
global vegetation models using climate outputs and
associated increasing CO2 from five GCMs run with four RCPs, expressed as the change from the 1971 — 1999
mean relative to change in
global mean land
temperature.
In other words, under solar or anthropogenic influence the changes in
mean climate values, such as the
global temperature, are less important than increased duration of certain climate patterns
associated say with cold conditions in some regions and warm conditions in the other regions
It is possible to construct a clear Fact about changes in
global mean surface
temperature changes and the
associated uncertainties.
The most likely candidate for that climatic variable force that comes to mind is solar variability (because I can think of no other force that can change or reverse in a different trend often enough, and quick enough to account for the historical climatic record) and the primary and secondary effects
associated with this solar variability which I feel are a significant player in glacial / inter-glacial cycles, counter climatic trends when taken into consideration with these factors which are, land / ocean arrangements,
mean land elevation,
mean magnetic field strength of the earth (magnetic excursions), the
mean state of the climate (average
global temperature), the initial state of the earth's climate (how close to interglacial - glacial threshold condition it is) the state of random terrestrial (violent volcanic eruption, or a random atmospheric circulation / oceanic pattern that feeds upon itself possibly) / extra terrestrial events (super-nova in vicinity of earth or a random impact) along with Milankovitch Cycles.
«These shifts were accompanied by breaks in the
global mean temperature trend with respect to time, presumably
associated with either discontinuities in the
global radiative budget due to the
global reorganization of clouds and water vapor or dramatic changes in the uptake of heat by the deep ocean.
«And since it has long been known that the DTR has declined significantly over many parts of the world as
mean global air
temperature has risen over the past several decades (Easterling et al., 1997), it can be appreciated that the
global warming with which this DTR decrease is
associated (which is driven by the fact that
global warming is predominantly caused by an increase in daily minimum
temperature) has likely helped to significantly reduce the CHD mortality of the world's elderly people.»
These weights allow for an objective, statistical prediction of
global mean temperature fluctuations arising solely from SST -
associated internal variability within a given model.
The heavy line in Fig. 2B shows the
global temperature anomaly
associated with these observed oscillatory discriminants consists of an interdecadal
global mean temperature fluctuation effectively identical to that in Fig. 1A.
The La Nina phase is
associated with a lower
global mean temperature than usual.
Models are able to reproduce many features of the observed
global and Northern Hemispher (NH)
mean temperature variance on interannual to centennial time scales (high confidence), and most models are now able to reproduce the observed peak in variability
associated with the El Niño (2 - to 7 - year period) in the Tropical Pacific.
Climate models vary widely in their projections of both
global mean temperature rise and regional climate changes, but are there any systematic differences in regional changes
associated with different levels of
global climate sensitivity?
Using
global mean temperature, the variability
associated with regional variability is averaged out, giving a larger signal to noise ratio.»