The changes produced a decrease of 0.006 °C / decade for the 1880 to 2014 trend of the annual
mean land surface air temperature rather than the 0.003 °C / decade increase reported by NCEI.
Not exact matches
Pitman, A.J., B.J. McAvaney, N. Bagnoud, and B. Cheminat, 2004: Are inter-model differences in AMIP - II near
surface air temperature means and extremes explained by
land surface energy balance complexity?
Lou Grinzo (12)-- I am under the impression that HadCRUTv3 uses
air temperatures on
land and sea
surface temperatures in the oceans to produce their global
mean.
(The specific dataset used as the foundation of the composition was the Combined
Land -
Surface Air and Sea -
Surface Water
Temperature Anomalies Zonal annual
means.)
However, the CRU global
mean combined
land air / sea
surface temperature estimates for Jan - Aug 2005 lag behind the 1998 annual
mean estimate by 0.08 C (0.50 C vs. 58C for 1998) while GISS indicates a lag of 0.02 C.
Since then there are a number of papers published on why the warming was statistically insignificant including a recent one by Richardson et al. 2016 which tries to explain that the models were projecting a global tas (
temperature air surface) but the actual observations are a combination of tas (
land) and SST oceans,
meaning projected warming shouldn't be as much as projected.
The fact this is seemingly not fully recognized — or here integrated — by Curry goes to the same reason Curry does not recognize why the so called «pause» is a fiction, why the «slowing» of the «rate» of increase in average ambient global
land and ocean
surface air temperatures over a shorter term period from the larger spike beyond the longer term
mean of the 90s is also meaningless in terms of the basic issue, and why the average ambient increase in global
air temperatures over such a short term is by far the least important empirical indicia of the issue.
Without atmosphere the
surface of the ocean or
land would lose o (T ^ 4 — Ts ^ 4)(1) where Ts is the
temperature of the space (about 4K) while in the presence of the atmosphere the heat losses are hc * (T — Tl)(2) and o (T ^ 4 — Tl ^ 4)(3) where (2) represents the heat transfer by convection (inclusive conduction) through the
air layer and (3) corresponds to the net flow due to the heat exchange by radiation, Tl being the
mean temperature of the
air layer.
Global
temperatures usually are described in terms of the
surface air temperature anomaly, the deviation of the
temperature at each site from a
mean of many years that is averaged over the whole world, both
land and oceans.