Not exact matches
There were no significant
trends in
mean annual total
precipitation or total
precipitation affected area but we did observe a significant increase in
mean annual rain - free days, where the
mean number of dry days increased by 1.31 days per decade and the global area affected by anomalously dry years significantly increased by 1.6 % per decade.
I am interpreting that to
mean that there is a
trend towards increasing annual 1 - day extreme
precipitation — but I am not sure how to quantify that change.
These variability
trends indicate that the frequency of extremes (more drought events and more heavy
precipitation events) has increased whereas the
mean has remained approximately the same.
This criterion may not be satisfied if observations are available only over a short time period (as is the case for the vertical structure of clouds), or if the predictor is defined through low - frequency variability (
trends, decadal variability), or if there is a lack of consistency among available datasets (as in the case for global -
mean precipitation and surface fluxes).
For regional climate predictability, the added value of RCMs should come from better resolving the relationship between
mean (temperature)
trends and key indicators that are supposedly better represented in the high resolution projections utilizing additional local information, such as temperature or
precipitation extremes.
Figure 3 shows Sahel
precipitation trends from Held et al., expressed as July - September proportional amounts relative to the 1901 - 2000 observed
mean.
The NAO's prominent upward
trend from the 1950s to the 1990s caused large regional changes in air temperature,
precipitation, wind and storminess, with accompanying impacts on marine and terrestrial ecosystems, and contributed to the accelerated rise in global
mean surface temperature (e.g., Hurrell 1996; Ottersen et al. 2001; Thompson et al. 2000; Visbeck et al. 2003; Stenseth et al. 2003).
a Ensemble -
mean of scaled - interannual regressions of winter SLP (contours) and SAT (color shading) anomalies upon the normalized leading PC of winter SLP anomalies during 1920 — 2012; b SLP and SAT
trend regressions upon the normalized leading PC of winter SLP 30 - year
trends based on 2016 — 2045; c as in (a) but for
precipitation in place of SAT; d as in (b) but for
precipitation in place of SAT.
Previous studies on the modification of
precipitation trends by quantile mapping have focused on
mean quantities, with less attention paid to extremes.
Observed 1979 — 2008
trends in global surface temperatures, Z850 and low - latitude
precipitation are shown in Fig. 9a, and the simulated
trends in Z850 and
precipitation from the GOGA and TOGA ensemble
means are shown in Fig. 9b, c, respectively.
Winter
precipitation (
mean and extreme) variability and
trends along the south coast and interior of Alaska appear to be closely related to variations in the PNA pattern over this timeframe, while El Nino / Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influences, through the Nino3 index, appear to be significant along the south coast alone.
Indeed, our results show that even in the absence of
trends in
mean precipitation — or
trends in the occurrence of extremely low -
precipitation events — the risk of severe drought in California has already increased due to extremely warm conditions induced by anthropogenic global warming.
Moreover, he said there are «signs that we're
trending toward a strong El Nino event,» which could
mean even above - normal
precipitation.