This chart, from Gagné et al, shows the area - averaged annual
mean sea ice concentration anomaly between 1950 and 2005.
The black line is a simulated
mean sea ice concentration from the CanESM2 large ensemble, a group of models developed at the Canadian Center for Climate Modelling and Analysis.
The colorscale over the ocean region indicates
the mean sea ice concentration for SON and the vectors indicate the SON mean 10 m wind vectors.
(a, b) Annual -
mean sea ice concentration in the CTL and SW experiments, and (c) SST anomalies during the last 50 years of the latter simulation.
Not exact matches
The most common indicator is the atmospheric background CO2
concentration, the global
mean temperature, the global
mean sea level, and the area with snow or Arctic
sea ice.
The laws of physics require that continually increasing GHG
concentrations will
mean a continually increasing temperature (subject to the natural climate fluctuations of course), and that will
mean continuing
sea ice decline.
Left figure: April
ice extent defined as 30 %
ice concentration in the Greenland
Sea / Fram Strait and Barents
Sea based on passive microwave data (red = April 2012, orange =
mean April 1999 - 2008, purple =
mean April 1980 - 1999, green =
mean April 1979 - 2008).
Right figure: May
ice extent defined as 30 %
ice concentration in the Greenland
Sea / Fram Strait and Barents
Sea based on passive microwave data (red = May 2012, orange =
mean May 1999 - 2008, purple =
mean May 1980 - 1999, green =
mean May 1979 - 2008)(Gerland et al.).
«It is very likely that the rate of global
mean sea level rise during the 21st century will exceed the rate observed during 1971 — 2010 for all Representative
Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios due to increases in ocean warming and loss of mass from glaciers and
ice sheets.
Ice extent (monthly means, April) southern border of 30 % ice concentration, in the Greenland Sea / Fram Strait and Barents Sea, based on passive microwave satellite data (red = April 2011, orange = April 2010, green = April 2009, blue = April 200
Ice extent (monthly
means, April) southern border of 30 %
ice concentration, in the Greenland Sea / Fram Strait and Barents Sea, based on passive microwave satellite data (red = April 2011, orange = April 2010, green = April 2009, blue = April 200
ice concentration, in the Greenland
Sea / Fram Strait and Barents
Sea, based on passive microwave satellite data (red = April 2011, orange = April 2010, green = April 2009, blue = April 2008).
Based on proxy records from
ice, terrestrial and marine archives, the LIG is characterized by an atmospheric CO2
concentration of about 290 ppm, i.e., similar to the pre-industrial (PI) value13,
mean air temperatures in Northeast Siberia that were about 9 °C higher than today14, air temperatures above the Greenland NEEM
ice core site of about 8 ± 4 °C above the
mean of the past millennium15, North Atlantic
sea - surface temperatures of about 2 °C higher than the modern (PI) temperatures12, 16, and a global
sea level 5 — 9 m above the present
sea level17.
That
means, at the location of Core PS2138 - 2 (d)
sea ice concentrations of < 10 % might have occasionally occurred at 120 ka
We also show a recent «climatology» value calculated using
mean daily
sea ice concentrations for the period 2003 - 2012 from the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC), and the IFD values so far in 2014 (up to day 23
ice concentrations for the period 2003 - 2012 from the National Snow and
Ice Data Center (NSIDC), and the IFD values so far in 2014 (up to day 23
Ice Data Center (NSIDC), and the IFD values so far in 2014 (up to day 231).
Wang, 5.0 (± 0.27), Modeling A projected September Arctic
sea ice extent of 5.0 million km2 is based on a NCEP ensemble
mean CFSv2 forecast initialized from the NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) that assimilates observed
sea ice concentrations and other atmospheric and oceanic observations.
The
mean ice concentration anomaly for June 2013 is 0.9 x 106 square kilometers greater than June 2012, however Arctic
sea ice thicknesses and volumes continue to remain the lowest on record.
Other climate or climate - related variables of importance may include CO2
concentration,
sea -
ice extent,
mean sea level pressure,
sea level, and storm surge frequencies.
«The hemispheric -
mean decline in winter
ice extent is due in large part to increasing
sea - surface temperatures in the Barents Sea and adjoining waters, which are consistent with increased concentrations of greenhouse gases.&raq
sea - surface temperatures in the Barents
Sea and adjoining waters, which are consistent with increased concentrations of greenhouse gases.&raq
Sea and adjoining waters, which are consistent with increased
concentrations of greenhouse gases.»
Ice extent (monthly means, June) southern border of 30 % ice concentration, in the Greenland Sea / Fram Strait and Barents Sea, based on passive microwave satellite data (red = June 2012, orange = mean June 1999 - 2008, purple = mean June 1980 - 1999, green = mean June 1979 - 2008)[Gerland et al
Ice extent (monthly
means, June) southern border of 30 %
ice concentration, in the Greenland Sea / Fram Strait and Barents Sea, based on passive microwave satellite data (red = June 2012, orange = mean June 1999 - 2008, purple = mean June 1980 - 1999, green = mean June 1979 - 2008)[Gerland et al
ice concentration, in the Greenland
Sea / Fram Strait and Barents
Sea, based on passive microwave satellite data (red = June 2012, orange =
mean June 1999 - 2008, purple =
mean June 1980 - 1999, green =
mean June 1979 - 2008)[Gerland et al.].
Table 1 summarizes
mean variation rates of temperature,
sea level and GHG
concentrations during (A) the last termination (19 — 10 kyr), (B) the Holocene (10 kyr to mid-19th century), (C) mid-19th century to mid-1970s, and (D) mid-1970s to 2005, based on
ice core studies [2], IPCC - 2001 and IPCC - 2007 [3], NASA - GISS [4], CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research [5], UK Meteorological Office [6] datasets and science journals.
Figure 3: Percentage difference in monthly
mean surface ozone
concentrations in March, between the run in which spring and summer
sea ice is removed («extreme scenario») and the run in which no perturbations were applied.
Ice extent (monthly means, July) southern border of 30 % ice concentration, in the Greenland Sea / Fram Strait and Barents Sea, based on passive microwave satellite data (red = July 2010, orange = July 2009, green = July 2008, blue = July 200
Ice extent (monthly
means, July) southern border of 30 %
ice concentration, in the Greenland Sea / Fram Strait and Barents Sea, based on passive microwave satellite data (red = July 2010, orange = July 2009, green = July 2008, blue = July 200
ice concentration, in the Greenland
Sea / Fram Strait and Barents
Sea, based on passive microwave satellite data (red = July 2010, orange = July 2009, green = July 2008, blue = July 2007).
Fig. 5:
Ice extent (monthly means, June) southern border of 30 % ice concentration in the Greenland Sea / Fram Strait and Barents Sea, based on passive microwave satellite data (red = June 2011, orange = mean June 1999 - 2008, purple = mean June 1980 - 1999, green = mean June 1979 - 200
Ice extent (monthly
means, June) southern border of 30 %
ice concentration in the Greenland Sea / Fram Strait and Barents Sea, based on passive microwave satellite data (red = June 2011, orange = mean June 1999 - 2008, purple = mean June 1980 - 1999, green = mean June 1979 - 200
ice concentration in the Greenland
Sea / Fram Strait and Barents
Sea, based on passive microwave satellite data (red = June 2011, orange =
mean June 1999 - 2008, purple =
mean June 1980 - 1999, green =
mean June 1979 - 2008).
Figure 2: Percentage difference in monthly
mean surface OH
concentrations in August, between the run in which late - summer
sea ice is removed («realistic scenario») and the run in which no perturbations were applied.
Ice extent (monthly means, July) southern border at 30 % ice concentration, in the Greenland Sea / Fram Strait and Barents Sea, based on passive microwave satellite data (red = July 2011, orange = mean July 1999 - 2008, purple = Mean July 1980 - 1999, green = mean July 1979 - 200
Ice extent (monthly
means, July) southern border at 30 %
ice concentration, in the Greenland Sea / Fram Strait and Barents Sea, based on passive microwave satellite data (red = July 2011, orange = mean July 1999 - 2008, purple = Mean July 1980 - 1999, green = mean July 1979 - 200
ice concentration, in the Greenland
Sea / Fram Strait and Barents
Sea, based on passive microwave satellite data (red = July 2011, orange =
mean July 1999 - 2008, purple =
Mean July 1980 - 1999, green =
mean July 1979 - 2008).