The new adjustment are likely to have a substantial impact on the historical record of global -
mean surface temperatures through the middle part of the twentieth century.
Earth's annual
mean surface temperature of 15 °C is 33 °C higher as a result of the greenhouse effect than the mean temperature resulting from radiative equilibrium of a blackbody at the earth's mean distance from the sun.
This is in contrast to externally forced variability in global
mean surface temperature which arises due to changes in atmospheric greenhouse gasses, aerosols, solar irradiance, ect.
«Using the most recently available characterizations of ENSO, volcanic aerosols, solar irradiance and anthropogenic influences, we perform multiple linear regression analyses to decompose 118 years (11 complete solar cycles) of
monthly mean surface temperature anomalies into four components.
The WMO bases its temperature assessment on global
mean surface temperature datasets for January — September from several organisations, including the HadCRUT4 dataset compiled by the Met Office Hadley Centre and the University of East Anglia's Climatic Research Unit.
Removal of that hidden variability from the actual observed global
mean surface temperature record delineates the externally forced climate signal, which is monotonic, accelerating warming during the 20th century.
In the extreme case of extracting 1000 TW,
mean surface temperatures fell nearly 10 °C, total rainfall decreased by about 35 per cent and sea ice cover doubled (Energies, vol 2, p 307).
First let's define the «equilibrium climate sensitivity» as the «equilibrium change in global
mean surface temperature following a doubling of the atmospheric (equivalent) CO2 concentration.
When differences in scaling between previous studies are accounted for, the various current and previous estimates of
NH mean surface temperature are largely consistent within uncertainties, despite the differences in methodology and mix of proxy data back to approximately A.D. 1000... Conclusions are less definitive for the SH and globe, which we attribute to larger uncertainties arising from the sparser available proxy data in the SH.
«Their study shows that the time - dependent response of
zonal mean surface temperature differs significantly from its equilibrium response particularly in those latitude belts, where the fraction of ocean - covered area is relatively large.
In similar manner, it would be astonishing to find a modern climate science paper referencing that CO2 is a major driver of climate, or that changes in CO2 concentration have a direct impact on global
mean surface temperatures unless the paper was from an entirely different field (where assumption of such basic knowledge can not be made), or where the reference is not for the fact of influence, but for a specific estimate of the value of the impact.
Overall, in the absence of major volcanic eruptions and, assuming no significant future long term changes in solar irradiance, it is likely (> 66 % probability) that the GMST -LCB- global
mean surface temperature -RCB- anomaly for the period 2016 — 2035, relative to the reference period of 1986 — 2005 will be in the range 0.3 °C — 0.7 °C -LCB- 0.5 °F — 1.3 °F -RCB-(expert assessment, to one significant figure; medium confidence).