Not exact matches
As we all here know (but most in the general public who are reading Mr. Rose's article probably do not), the «cool phase» is named so because of what it
means for sea
surface temperatures primarily
along the North American west coast.
Current «cool» phase of the PDO began in late 1998 / early 1999 (certainly not 2008), and when it flipped it generally
meant cooler sea
surface temperatures along the west coast of N. America but warmer
temperatures on average over other other broad regions of the Pacific.
The complexity of the climate system and the uncertainty around our understanding of its mechanisms and the feedback interactions of it's components,
along with the uncertainty around our measurements of its activity
mean that at this stage we can not be sure global
surface temperature will trend up or down, or even whether
surface temperature is the most useful metric for the throughput of energy in the climate system.
The original ICOADS global
mean sea
surface temperature is shown in figure 1
along with the simple war - time adjustment analysed in this study.
Figure 2: Observed GISS 21 - year running
mean global
mean surface temperature (heavy solid)
along with that
temperature cleaned of the internal signal (dashed).
You are confused: Saying we are solving for the radiative imbalance at the top - of - the - atmosphere doesn't
mean that we are only interested in the
temperature there... What it
means is that we can use that value,
along with the fact that the lapse rate in the troposphere will be determined mainly by convection to figure out what will happen at the
surface most easily.
The top left panel shows the TOA energy balance for the first stasis period 2048 — 2058 for the net radiation (R T),
along with the global
mean surface temperature perturbation.
The observed changes (lower panel; Trenberth and Fasullo 2010) show the 12 - month running
means of global
mean surface temperature anomalies relative to 1901 — 2000 from NOAA [red (thin) and decadal (thick)-RSB- in °C (scale lower left), CO2 concentrations (green) in ppmv from NOAA (scale right), and global sea level adjusted for isostatic rebound from AVISO (blue,
along with linear trend of 3.2 mm / year) relative to 1993, scale at left in mm).