NASA released their 2016 global
mean surface temperature data today.
Not exact matches
The analysis of high - frequency
surface air
temperature,
mean sea - level pressure, wind speed and direction and cloud - cover
data from the solar eclipse of 20 March 2015 from the UK, Faroe Islands and Iceland, published today (Monday 22 August 2016), sheds new light on the phenomenon.
However, comparison of the global, annual
mean time series of near -
surface temperature (approximately 0 to 5 m depth) from this analysis and the corresponding SST series based on a subset of the International Comprehensive Ocean - Atmosphere
Data Set (ICOADS) database (approximately 134 million SST observations; Smith and Reynolds, 2003 and additional data) shows a high correlation (r = 0.96) for the period 1955 to 2
Data Set (ICOADS) database (approximately 134 million SST observations; Smith and Reynolds, 2003 and additional
data) shows a high correlation (r = 0.96) for the period 1955 to 2
data) shows a high correlation (r = 0.96) for the period 1955 to 2005.
When differences in scaling between previous studies are accounted for, the various current and previous estimates of NH
mean surface temperature are largely consistent within uncertainties, despite the differences in methodology and mix of proxy
data back to approximately A.D. 1000... Conclusions are less definitive for the SH and globe, which we attribute to larger uncertainties arising from the sparser available proxy
data in the SH.
Does that
mean the global
mean surface temperature trends over the 20th Century, or just that some 20th Century
data is used?
More than 95 % of the 5 yr running
mean of the
surface temperature change since 1850 can be replicated by an integration of the sunspot
data (as a proxy for ocean heat content), departing from the average value over the period of the sunspot record (~ 40SSN), plus the superimposition of a ~ 60 yr sinusoid representing the observed oceanic oscillations.
Large variability reduces the number of new records — which is why the satellite series of global
mean temperature have fewer expected records than the
surface data, despite showing practically the same global warming trend: they have more short - term variability.
Indeed, there's a world of difference between citing one paper that has done something that MIGHT rebalance the global
mean temperature data — as Joe's post suggests — and then assuming that the problem is fixed and the indicator remains the first best only way to measure global goals despite the fact that natural variability in the global
mean surface temperature will also make that a sluggish measure.
But I would suppose that equilibrium climate sensitivity [background] and even global
mean surface temperature on a decadal scale could be better nailed down by model pruning and better ocean
data.
The AARI
data include drifting stations and ice information, although not the majority (my fault to see that as «main»), that
means that the difference between only land based and total is in warmer sea
surface temperatures.
«The average global
temperature anomaly for combined land and ocean
surfaces for July (based on preliminary
data) was 1.1 degrees F (0.6 degrees C) above the 1880 - 2004 long - term
mean.
Given that, here are the absolute global
mean surface temperatures in five reanalysis products (ERAi, NCEP CFSR, NCEP1, JRA55 and MERRA2) since 1980 (
data via WRIT at NOAA ESRL).
The code currently starts from the annual -
mean data for the
surface, upper - air, and deep - ocean
temperatures that were extracted from the MIT IGSM model output files.
As a result, directly comparing the Sea
Surface Temperature data from the early 20th century to the current Sea
Surface Temperature data is like «comparing apples and oranges» — there have been too many changes in the
data sources for such comparisons to have much
meaning.
However, comparison of the global, annual
mean time series of near -
surface temperature (approximately 0 to 5 m depth) from this analysis and the corresponding SST series based on a subset of the International Comprehensive Ocean - Atmosphere
Data Set (ICOADS) database (approximately 134 million SST observations; Smith and Reynolds, 2003 and additional data) shows a high correlation (r = 0.96) for the period 1955 to 2
Data Set (ICOADS) database (approximately 134 million SST observations; Smith and Reynolds, 2003 and additional
data) shows a high correlation (r = 0.96) for the period 1955 to 2
data) shows a high correlation (r = 0.96) for the period 1955 to 2005.
Unfortunately, we don't have good ocean heat content
data for this period, while the
data we do have — global
mean atmospheric
surface temperature — is dominated by ocean oscillations.
In the Comment by Nuccitelli et al., they make many false and invalid criticisms of the CFC - warming theory in my recent paper, and claim that their anthropogenic forcings including CO2 would provide a better explanation of the observed global
mean surface temperature (GMST)
data over the past 50 years.
A similar mismatch between LIG - 120
mean annual
surface temperature (MAT) simulation and proxy
data is also described by Otto - Bliesner et al. 21.
Daily
mean NCEP / NCAR reanalysis
data are used as atmospheric forcing, i.e., 10 - m
surface winds, 2 - m
surface air
temperature (SAT), specific humidity, precipitation, evaporation, downwelling longwave radiation, sea level pressure, and cloud fraction.
In regards the gridded network» stations, I have been informed that the Climate Research Unit's (CRU) monthly
mean surface temperature dataset has been constructed principally from
data available on the two websites identified in my letter of 12 March 2007.
All
data are shown as global
mean temperature anomalies relative to the period 1901 to 1950, as observed (black, Hadley Centre / Climatic Research Unit gridded
surface temperature data set (HadCRUT3); Brohan et al., 2006) and, in (a) as obtained from 58 simulations produced by 14 models with both anthropogenic and natural forcings.
The fit of a trend line to the time series of global -
mean surface temperature (e.g., Figure 2.5) indicates a warming between 0.25 to 0.4 °C for this 20 - year period, or approximately 0.1 to 0.2 °C per decade, 6 depending upon which of the existing
data sets is used to represent the
surface temperatures, and exactly how the fitting is done.
Time series of seasonally averaged global
surface temperature (December 1879 — August 1999) based on the Quayle et al. (1999)
data set, computed as differences from the 1880 — 1998
mean.
And I should add to the last post that by global warming I
mean increases in the global
surface temperature, which is certainly not the only climate metric, or necessary the best one, but is the one for which we have the best
data.
Dating back into the late nineteenth century, the
data coverage has been dense enough to reveal the existence of gradual changes in hemispheric - and global -
mean surface temperature.
Figure 3: Global
mean sea level variations (light line) computed from the TOPEX / POSEIDON satellite altimeter
data compared with the global averaged sea
surface temperature variations (dark line) for 1993 to 1998.
Kevin C's excellent trend tool shows us what the new
data mean for the
surface temperature trend since 1970: it's about +0.17 C per decade, but there's a range in that because short term wiggles are caused by things like the El Nino - La Nina cycle in the Pacific which warm or cool the atmosphere by storing or releasing heat from the oceans.
The range (due to different
data sets) of the global
mean tropospheric
temperature trend since 1979 is 0.12 °C to 0.19 °C per decade based on satellite - based estimates (Chapter 3) compared to a range of 0.16 °C to 0.18 °C per decade for the global
surface warming.
Omission of successively larger polar regions from the global -
mean temperature calculations, in both tropospheric and
surface data sets, shows that
data gaps at high latitudes can not explain the observed differences between the hiatus and the pre-hiatus period....
TCR (1 + beta) extracted from HadCRUT4
data since 1850 is 1.8 C and only has the uncertainty of the global
mean surface temperature measurement that you argue in Lewis and Curry (2014) is insignificant compared to the aerosol contribution uncertainty.
Now, researchers from Germany and the US, who examined global
mean surface temperature (GMST) trends in the light of a recent series of three record - breaking years in a row in most
data sets, have published the results of their study, which identified two important pitfalls in analysing GMST trends, in Environmental Research Letters.
To achieve an average
surface air
temperature, or a global
mean temperature, first establish a baseline for the measurements; and then weigh new
data against the base line.
We blended
surface meteorological observations, remotely sensed (TRMM and NDVI)
data, physiographic indices, and regression techniques to produce gridded maps of annual
mean precipitation and
temperature, as well as parameters for site - specific, daily weather generation for any location in Yemen.
But the heart of his paper is the construction from published metereological
data of a table of
mean temperature and relative and absolute humidity for the
surface of the earth between 60 degrees south and 70 degrees north.
The scientists determined their findings by using
data — 5.1 million
temperature profiles — from sources around the world, to quantify the variability of the heat content (
mean temperature) of the world ocean from the
surface through 3000 meter depth for the period 1948 to 1996.
I don't think these new results will in any case affect the yearly
mean temperature grid calculations, as they depend on actual
surface station
temperature records — which both we and Steig et al. used — and not on reconstructed gridded
data.
Global average
temperature The
mean surface temperature of the Earth measured from three main sources: satellites, monthly readings from a network of over 3,000
surface temperature observation stations and sea
surface temperature measurements taken mainly from the fleet of merchant ships, naval ships and
data buoys.
GISS relies on
data collected by other organizations, specifically, NOAA / NCEI's Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN) v3 adjusted monthly
mean data as augmented by Antarctic
data collated by UK Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research (SCAR) and also NOAA / NCEI's Extended Reconstructed Sea
Surface Temperature (ERSST) v5
data.
Antartica would contribute a bit under 9.5 % of the
mean global land
surface temperature and a bit under 2.8 % of the
mean global
surface temperature, if I have got my
data right.
The global
mean of the local standard deviation of June — July — August
surface temperature increases from 0.50 °C for 1951 — 980
data to 0.58 °C for 1981 — 2010
data.
The monthly global
surface temperature data are from NCDC, NOAA: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/anomalies/index.html; the global
mean sea level
data are from AVISO satellite altimetry
data: http://www.aviso.oceanobs.com/en/news/ocean-indicators/
mean-sea-level/; and the CO2 at Mauna Loa
data are from NOAA http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/
To create the CRUTEM
surface temperature analysis, CRU scientists take
temperature data from 4,138 stations, and for each station they calculate the
mean temperature for 1961 - 1990 and
temperature anomalies relative to that period.
In fact, scientists are finding that, more recently, tree ring proxy
data for current growth is diverging from
surface temperature data,
meaning either that
surface temperature data is flawed or that they don't really understand how to scale tree ring
data yet.
The space - time structure of natural climate variability needed to determine the optimal fingerprint pattern and the resultant signal - to - noise ratio of the detection variable is estimated from several multi-century control simulations with different CGCMs and from instrumental
data over the last 136 y. Applying the combined greenhouse gas - plus - aerosol fingerprint in the same way as the greenhouse gas only fingerprint in a previous work, the recent 30 - y trends (1966 — 1995) of annual
mean near
surface temperature are again found to represent a significant climate change at the 97.5 % confidence level.