In the opinion of the panel, the warming trend in global -
mean surface temperature observations during the past 20 years is undoubtedly real and is substantially greater than the average rate of warming during the twentieth century.
* However, the same panel then concluded that «the warming trend in global -
mean surface temperature observations during the past 20 years is undoubtedly real and is substantially greater than the average rate of warming during the twentieth century.
Not exact matches
However, comparison of the global, annual
mean time series of near -
surface temperature (approximately 0 to 5 m depth) from this analysis and the corresponding SST series based on a subset of the International Comprehensive Ocean - Atmosphere Data Set (ICOADS) database (approximately 134 million SST
observations; Smith and Reynolds, 2003 and additional data) shows a high correlation (r = 0.96) for the period 1955 to 2005.
Thus, given the height and value of the emission
temperature, we can get a simple estimate for the
surface temperature: 255K + 5.5 km * 6K / km = 288K (= 15oC; close to the global
mean estimated from
observations given by NCDC of ~ 14oC).
You stated: «Thus, given the height and value of the emission
temperature, we can get a simple estimate for the
surface temperature: 255K + 5.5 km * 6K / km = 288K (= 15oC; close to the global
mean estimated from
observations given by NCDC of ~ 14oC).»
The
observations from the Laptev Sea in 2007 indicate that the bottom water
temperatures on the mid-shelf increased by more than 3 C compared to the long - term
mean as a consequence of the unusually high summertime
surface water
temperatures.
Variations in global -
mean temperature are inferred from three different sets of measurements:
surface observations, satellite
observations, and radiosonde
observations.
However, comparison of the global, annual
mean time series of near -
surface temperature (approximately 0 to 5 m depth) from this analysis and the corresponding SST series based on a subset of the International Comprehensive Ocean - Atmosphere Data Set (ICOADS) database (approximately 134 million SST
observations; Smith and Reynolds, 2003 and additional data) shows a high correlation (r = 0.96) for the period 1955 to 2005.
Delegates debated at length to find the clearest language possible to explain that a claimed «15 - year hiatus» is based on a single variable (global
mean surface temperature), too short a period of
observation for climatic significance, and sensitive to the choice of the starting year from which a 15 - year period is calculated.
Figure 2: Gillett et al. time series of global
mean near -
surface air
temperature anomalies in
observations and simulations of CanESM2.
As is widely known, global
mean surface temperature (GMST) has not increased over the past 13 - plus years, contributing to a growing divergence between global warming predictions and
observations.
Since then there are a number of papers published on why the warming was statistically insignificant including a recent one by Richardson et al. 2016 which tries to explain that the models were projecting a global tas (
temperature air
surface) but the actual
observations are a combination of tas (land) and SST oceans,
meaning projected warming shouldn't be as much as projected.
Global
mean temperatures from climate model simulations are typically calculated using
surface air
temperatures, while the corresponding
observations are based on a blend of air and sea
surface temperatures.
With the model and
observation trends set to zero in 1979, the discrepancy between the model
mean of the near -
surface global
temperatures and the
surface observations by 2012 was 0.73 °C.
Global
mean surface temperature anomalies (°C), relative to the period 1901 to 1950, from
observations (black) and simulations (blue)[from Climate Change 2007: Working Group I: The Physical Science Basis]
We blended
surface meteorological
observations, remotely sensed (TRMM and NDVI) data, physiographic indices, and regression techniques to produce gridded maps of annual
mean precipitation and
temperature, as well as parameters for site - specific, daily weather generation for any location in Yemen.
However, our understanding of how the ocean impacts the global
mean surface temperature is strongly limited by available
observations, which historically have consisted primarily of sea
surface temperature (SST) measurements.
The lack of an oscillatory model signal suggests that the inter-decadal global
mean surface temperature signal derived from the
observations and shown in Figs. 1A and 2B is indeed the signature of natural long - term climate variability.
For each trip the
mean difference (trip bias), using the
surface temperature observations for the reference, and the standard deviation of the differences were computed.
Global average
temperature The
mean surface temperature of the Earth measured from three main sources: satellites, monthly readings from a network of over 3,000
surface temperature observation stations and sea
surface temperature measurements taken mainly from the fleet of merchant ships, naval ships and data buoys.
(Left) Sea
surface temperature averaged over the North Atlantic (75 - 7.5 W, 0 - 60N), in the HADGEM2 - ES model (ensemble
mean red; standard deviation yellow) compared with
observations (black), as discussed in Booth et al 2012.