Sentences with phrase «mean surface temperature trends»
Similar but longer - term natural variability can also influence global mean surface temperature trends over several decades, as Scripps researchers have recently reported.
https://scripps.ucsd.edu/
««Barring a major volcanic eruption, most 15 - year global mean surface temperature trends in the near - term future will be larger than during 1998 - 2012...» --- That sounds about right.
«Barring a major volcanic eruption, most 15 - year global mean surface temperature trends in the near - term future will be larger than during 1998 - 2012,»
«Barring a major volcanic eruption, most 15 - year global mean surface temperature trends in the near - term future will be larger than during 1998 - 2012,» according to the 127 - page Technical Summary dated June 7 and obtained by Reuters.
Does that mean the global mean surface temperature trends over the 20th Century, or just that some 20th Century data is used?
If valid, it indicates that the mean surface temperature trend hiatus in no way refutes the core conclusions of IPCC, and will not have the power to do so even if it continues for some decades to come.
Recent coverage focuses on severe event attribution and the global mean surface temperature trend.
Not exact matches
Global mean surface temperatures have risen by 0.74 °C ± 0.18 °C when estimated by a linear trend over the last 100 years (1906 — 2005).
* However, the same panel then concluded that «the warming trend in global - mean surface temperature observations during the past 20 years is undoubtedly real and is substantially greater than the average rate of warming during the twentieth century.
411 SG Bolstrom, I am observing a particular trend unlike the recent past, whereas the Arctic air profiles are leaning more adiabatically during winter, this means a whole lot of confusion with respect to temperature trends, namely the high Upper Air should cool as the surface warms, and the reverse, the Upper air warms when heat from the lower atmosphere is transferred upwards.
Global warming does not mean no winter, it means winter start later, summer hotter, as Gary Peters said «The global average surface temperature has risen between 0.6 °C and 0.7 °C since the start of the twentieth century, and the rate of increase since 1976 has been approximately three times faster than the century - scale trend.»
Large variability reduces the number of new records — which is why the satellite series of global mean temperature have fewer expected records than the surface data, despite showing practically the same global warming trend: they have more short - term variability.
Eight decades with a slightly negative global mean surface - temperature trend show that the ocean above 300 m takes up significantly less heat whereas the ocean below 300 m takes up significantly more, compared with non-hiatus decades.
Its up to the contrarians to disprove the surface temperature trend by other means, the more they will look the more they will confirm the warming trend.
I wonder what the increase in global mean surface temperature is for the decade 1994 to end of year 2004 (thus, not counting Pinatubo) as compared to the longer term trend since 1880 or so.
«These papers should lay to rest once and for all the claims by John Christy and other global warming skeptics that a disagreement between tropospheric and surface temperature trends means that there are problems with surface temperature records or with climate models,» said Alan Robock, a meteorologist at Rutgers University.
Wu, Z., Huang, N., Wallace, J., Smoliak, B. & Chen, X. On the time - varying trend in global - mean surface temperature.
Dr Curry, the mean model surface temperature trend estimate is ~ 0.20 C / decade compared to Cowtan and Way ~ +0.17 C or GISS ~ +0.16 C (both attempting improved Arctic representation).
Evaluation of Climate Models: Participants debated extensively the text dealing with simulated and observed trends in global mean surface temperature in the long and short term.
What can «go away» might be a rising trend in global mean of surface temperatures — most likely on a temporary basis.
The changes produced a decrease of 0.006 °C / decade for the 1880 to 2014 trend of the annual mean land surface air temperature rather than the 0.003 °C / decade increase reported by NCEI.
Box 9.2 Climate Models and the Hiatus in Global Mean Surface Warming of the Past 15 Years «The observed global mean surface temperature (GMST) has shown a much smaller increasing linear trend over the past 15 years than over the past 30 to 60 years (Section 2.4.3, Figure 2.20, Table 2.7; Figure 9.8; Box 9.2 Figure Surface Warming of the Past 15 Years «The observed global mean surface temperature (GMST) has shown a much smaller increasing linear trend over the past 15 years than over the past 30 to 60 years (Section 2.4.3, Figure 2.20, Table 2.7; Figure 9.8; Box 9.2 Figure surface temperature (GMST) has shown a much smaller increasing linear trend over the past 15 years than over the past 30 to 60 years (Section 2.4.3, Figure 2.20, Table 2.7; Figure 9.8; Box 9.2 Figure 1a, c).
The NAO's prominent upward trend from the 1950s to the 1990s caused large regional changes in air temperature, precipitation, wind and storminess, with accompanying impacts on marine and terrestrial ecosystems, and contributed to the accelerated rise in global mean surface temperature (e.g., Hurrell 1996; Ottersen et al. 2001; Thompson et al. 2000; Visbeck et al. 2003; Stenseth et al. 2003).
In the opinion of the panel, the warming trend in global - mean surface temperature observations during the past 20 years is undoubtedly real and is substantially greater than the average rate of warming during the twentieth century.
What this means is that because (a) the land surface temperature record does in fact combine temperature measurements of light wind and windy nights and (b) there has been a reduction in nighttime cooling, the long - term temperature record may be contaminated by a warm bias that accentuates the observed trend of warmer temperatures.
Dieng et al., 2017 http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.4996/full We can note that the correlation between GMST [global mean surface temperature] trends and AMO trends is quite high.
Figure 9.6 (fourth row) shows that climate models are only able to reproduce the observed patterns of zonal mean near - surface temperature trends over the 1901 to 2005 and 1979 to 2005 periods when they include anthropogenic forcings and fail to do so when they exclude anthropogenic forcings.
The complexity of the climate system and the uncertainty around our understanding of its mechanisms and the feedback interactions of it's components, along with the uncertainty around our measurements of its activity mean that at this stage we can not be sure global surface temperature will trend up or down, or even whether surface temperature is the most useful metric for the throughput of energy in the climate system.
The fit of a trend line to the time series of global - mean surface temperature (e.g., Figure 2.5) indicates a warming between 0.25 to 0.4 °C for this 20 - year period, or approximately 0.1 to 0.2 °C per decade, 6 depending upon which of the existing data sets is used to represent the surface temperatures, and exactly how the fitting is done.
Thus the observed temporal evolution of the GMST [global mean surface temperature] trends may just reflect a 60 - year natural cycle driven by the AMO.
Time series of global - mean surface temperature from 1979 to 1998, repeated from Figure 2.3, shown with a trend line fitted by the method of ordinary least squares.
This disparity between the recent trends in global - mean surface and tropospheric temperature is the motivation for this report.
The discrepancy between recent observed and simulated trends in global mean surface temperature has provoked a debate about possible causes and implications for future climate change projections.
While the trend is not statistically significant, the central value is positive, meaning the average surface temperature has most likely warmed over this period.
Kevin C's excellent trend tool shows us what the new data mean for the surface temperature trend since 1970: it's about +0.17 C per decade, but there's a range in that because short term wiggles are caused by things like the El Nino - La Nina cycle in the Pacific which warm or cool the atmosphere by storing or releasing heat from the oceans.
Map of trends (°C / century) of annual (July — June) mean surface air temperature for observing stations west of 116 ° W. Triangles mark statistically significant (p < 0.05) trends (red, upward pointing: positive; blue, downward pointing: negative).
The range (due to different data sets) of the global mean tropospheric temperature trend since 1979 is 0.12 °C to 0.19 °C per decade based on satellite - based estimates (Chapter 3) compared to a range of 0.16 °C to 0.18 °C per decade for the global surface warming.
Observed 1979 — 2008 trends in global surface temperatures, Z850 and low - latitude precipitation are shown in Fig. 9a, and the simulated trends in Z850 and precipitation from the GOGA and TOGA ensemble means are shown in Fig. 9b, c, respectively.
'' that the «model simulations show a trend in global - mean surface temperature from 1951 to 2012 that agrees with the observed trend.»
The results here reveal a larger picture — that the western tropical Indian Ocean has been warming for more than a century, at a rate faster than any other region of the tropical oceans, and turns out to be the largest contributor to the overall trend in the global mean sea surface temperature (SST)»
With the model and observation trends set to zero in 1979, the discrepancy between the model mean of the near - surface global temperatures and the surface observations by 2012 was 0.73 °C.
This hardly seems to fit the IPCC description that «[m] odels reproduce observed continental - scale surface temperature patterns and trends over many decades» or is grounds for having «very high confidence» that the «model simulations show a trend in global - mean surface temperature from 1951 to 2012 that agrees with the observed trend.»
Now, researchers from Germany and the US, who examined global mean surface temperature (GMST) trends in the light of a recent series of three record - breaking years in a row in most data sets, have published the results of their study, which identified two important pitfalls in analysing GMST trends, in Environmental Research Letters.
He concludes: «Therefore, scientists should avoid the use of «pause» or «hiatus» when referring to fluctuations of global mean surface temperature around the longer - term warming trend.
Wu, Z., N.E. Huang, J.M. Wallace, B.V. Smoliak, and X. Chen, (2011): «On the time - varying trend in global - mean surface temperature», Climate Dynamics, Volume 37, Issue 3 - 4, pp 759 - 773, DOI: 10.1007 / s00382 -011-1128-8.
On the time - varying trend in global - mean surface temperature ``... we showed that the rapidity of the warming in the late twentieth century was a result of concurrence of a secular warming trend and the warming phase of a multidecadal (~ 65 - year period) oscillatory variation and we estimated the contribution of the former to be about 0.08 deg C per decade since ~ 1980.»
In this study, we primarily investigate the reliability of the climatology (long - term mean of model simulation) of large - scale features of climate model ensembles, but we also consider the trend for surface air temperature where transient simulations are available (that is, for the coupled ocean — atmosphere models).
The least - squares linear - regression trend on the RSS satellite monthly global mean surface temperature anomaly dataset continues to show no global warming for 18 years 9 months since February 1997, though one - third of all anthropogenic forcings have occurred during the period of the Pause.
The observed changes (lower panel; Trenberth and Fasullo 2010) show the 12 - month running means of global mean surface temperature anomalies relative to 1901 — 2000 from NOAA [red (thin) and decadal (thick)-RSB- in °C (scale lower left), CO2 concentrations (green) in ppmv from NOAA (scale right), and global sea level adjusted for isostatic rebound from AVISO (blue, along with linear trend of 3.2 mm / year) relative to 1993, scale at left in mm).
The space - time structure of natural climate variability needed to determine the optimal fingerprint pattern and the resultant signal - to - noise ratio of the detection variable is estimated from several multi-century control simulations with different CGCMs and from instrumental data over the last 136 y. Applying the combined greenhouse gas - plus - aerosol fingerprint in the same way as the greenhouse gas only fingerprint in a previous work, the recent 30 - y trends (1966 — 1995) of annual mean near surface temperature are again found to represent a significant climate change at the 97.5 % confidence level.