Not exact matches
Looking at the grafs, i notice that ocean heat content jumps about the time
surface temperatures fall below ensemble
mean.
Other experts point out one of the biggest natural factors behind the plateau is the fact that in 2008 the
temperature cycle in the Pacific flipped from «warm mode», in which it had been locked for the previous 40 years, to «cold mode»,
meaning surface water
temperatures fell.
That
means that also the
temperature must
fall with different rate at different values of x. Thus it can be independent on x at one altitude only and that altitude is likely to be the
surface as a boundary condition.
The delay also
means that the
fall off in bulk TSI around 2004 presages a
fall in
surface temperatures around about one sunspot later, around 2017: 2004 + 13 = 2017.
While
surface temperatures have generally remained fairly close to the multi-model
mean in the past, the recent pause threatens to cause
surface temperatures to
fall below the 5th percentile of models in the next year or two if
temperatures do not rise.
Their conclusion was that after 50 years with no greenhouse gases the Earth's albedo would have risen from today's 0.293 to 0.418, and that
mean surface temperature would have
fallen from 288 K to 252 K, a drop of 36 K, of which 9 K, they imagined, was the loss of directly - forced warming from the non-condensing greenhouse gases and the remaining 27 K was the loss of feedback response to that directly - forced warming.
If the whole
surface of the earth is considered as a unit upon which a certain amount of heat
falls each day, it is obvious that the
mean temperature will depend upon the rate at which this heat can escape by radiation, because no other type of heat exchange is possible.