Climate change projections have vastly underestimated the role that clouds play,
meaning future warming could be far worse than is currently projected, according to new research.
Not exact matches
A new study takes aim at the mysterious relationship between clouds and climate, and it finds that a
warmer planet could
mean fewer clouds, which would
mean an even more sultry
future for the planet
In a paper published in Science today, researchers from ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies (Coral CoE) at James Cook University (JCU) and the University of Queensland (UQ), as well as the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) investigated what this
warming pattern
means for GBR coral bleaching events into the
future.
(NOAA) investigated what this
warming pattern
means for GBR coral bleaching events into the
future.
And this would
mean that
future warming has been underestimated.
[Update: Co-author Zeebe says results may possibly
mean «
future warming could be more intense.»
The kinder, gentler model from the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research in the United Kingdom estimated a wetter,
warmer future: Rainfall may increase 20 percent to 25 percent,
mean annual temperatures could increase 2 degrees Fahrenheit by 2030 and 4 degrees by 2100.
The steady uptick in
warming, even with a relative slowdown in recent decades,
means that the likelihood of seeing a record cold year in the
future is, according to a quick calculation by Mann, «astronomically small.»
Contemporary global
mean sea level rise will continue over many centuries as a consequence of anthropogenic climate
warming, with the detailed pace and final amount of rise depending substantially on
future greenhouse gas emissions.
While every storm has its own characteristics and quirks, this one being particularly unusual, a
warming global ocean
means we're likely to see more storms of this strength in
future.
It
means warmer days are right around the corner, which
means we are DONE hibernating and park days are in the near
future.
Warmer weather has arrived and that
means that chances are you will be going on vacation, attending weddings, picnics, and family gatherings in the near
future.
Thus, at that point in the
future, a lessor volume of accumulated GHGs in the atmosphere would
mean a global climate that is not as
warm as the global climate would have been had we not emitted fewer GHG emissions now.
What Knutson et al are asking us to do in essence is to put all that aside (because, they argue — in short — that its not the
warming but the pattern of
warming that matters here) and instead take on faith the perhaps not - much - more - than 50/50 proposition that the
mean changes in ENSO state and variability projected by the IPCC multimodel ensemble (which are a key determinant in the projected
future Atlantic TC activity) should be trusted.
While noisy, the correlation looks significant, with those models that calculate a
warmer mean temperature projecting (on average) a lower rate of
future warming.
And this would
mean that
future warming has been underestimated.
or Ballester et al. 2009 «
Future changes in Central Europe heat waves expected to mostly follow summer
mean warming.»
The standstil of global average temperature predicted by the «improved» modell compared to
warming predicted from the «old» modell is nothing that happens in the
future, it should have happened (but did not happen) in the past, from 1985 to 1999: The «improved» modell (green graph) shows that the global average temperature did not change from 1985 (=
mean 1980 - 1990) to 1999 (=
mean 1994 to 2004).
This has implications for
future scenario's, as a lower sensitivity for CO2 (and a higher for solar)
means that there will be less
warming for the same CO2 emissions (assuming no large excursions of solar).
First of all, Oreskes et al. emphasize that the reality of
mean global
warming is essentially undisputed, but that the
future impacts on the scale for which humans would have to prepare are still the subject of considerable research, inquiry, and debate.
That can not change quickly, even if it
means a much
warmer world for
future generations.
For all the above reasons the Realclimate theory is simply not sufficiently plausible and I see no credible
means as to how AGW can
warm up the oceans fast enough to be a threat in the foreseeable
future.
Global
warming — doesn't
mean we'll all just have
warmer weather in
future.
Continued greenhouse gas emissions leading to further
warming would
mean that the chances of seeing years at 1.5 °C or more would likely increase in
future years.»
It can't be said too often that climate models are merely contrivances
meant to project a
future warming trend indefinitely.
That may
mean that some of the highest estimates of
future temperature rises, of more than 6C within several decades, are less likely, but it does not let the world off the hook —
warming of more than 2C is still highly likely on current high emissions trends, and that would cause severe consequences around the world.
Since the
mean radiative forcing progression in RCP 8.5 is likely steeper than the radiative forcing progression of the recent past, this finding can not be used to suggest that models are overestimating the response to forcings and it can not be used to infer anything about
future rates of
warming.
Contemporary global
mean sea level rise will continue over many centuries as a consequence of anthropogenic climate
warming, with the detailed pace and final amount of rise depending substantially on
future greenhouse gas emissions.
Although there is as yet no convincing evidence in the observed record of changes in tropical cyclone behaviour, a synthesis of the recent model results indicates that, for the
future warmer climate, tropical cyclones will show increased peak wind speed and increased
mean and peak precipitation intensities.
Following the signing of the Paris Agreement in December 2015, a targeted focus has emerged within the scientific community to better understand how changes to the global climate system will evolve in response to specific thresholds of
future global
mean warming, such as 1.5 ◦ C or 2 ◦ C above «pre-industrial levels».
By the year 2070, however, researchers found that the
warming would nearly catch up to the reference simulation, which
means that a
future grand solar minimum would merely slow down global
warming.
(By this I
mean could one show a perceptible impact on our planet's
future climate at a reasonable cost per degree C global
warming averted a) at an estimated 2xCO2 climate sensitivity of 3C or b) at a CS of 1C?)
Part of problem is that even with current levels of emissions, the inertia of the climate system
means that not all of the
warming those emissions will cause has happened yet — a certain amount is «in the pipeline» and will only rear its head in the
future, because the ocean absorbs some of the heat, delaying the inherent atmospheric
warming for decades to centuries.
It's true that as the ocean
warms, it can't absorb as much CO2, but that is a reason to be more worried about climate change, since it
means global
warming may well speed up in the
future.
If you «pause» it
means warming may resume at some time in the
future (or perhaps even cooling... but let's not go there for the sake of this argument).
When the earth's temperature rises on average by more than two degrees, interactions between different consequences of global
warming (reduction in the area of arable land, unexpected crop failures, extinction of diverse plant and animal species) combined with increasing populations
mean that hundreds of millions of people may die from starvation or disease in
future famines.
The climate change had already affected the seas around Antarctica and is
warming some coastal waters.So now both Antarctic Peninsula and West Antarctica Ice sheet are losing ice.For now, the East Antarctic Ice sheet is stable but it will influence on global climate change due to sea ice.In the
future there is growing concern about the possible impact of climate change.Is Antarctica gaining ice that
meant it will effect to climate change and the ecosystem of the regions?
That
means there is still a lot of uncertainty about the extent of
future warming — estimates of the effect of doubling CO2, including all feedback processes, range from 2 °C to 6 °C.
Any reduction in global
mean near - surface temperature due to a
future decline in solar activity is likely to be a small fraction of projected anthropogenic
warming.
That amount of
warming would be disastrous and
means we should remain scared about the
future in the way I wrote about in my book Requiem for a Species, which led some to see me as a «Dr Doom» figure.
Picking 1985 - 2005 as a baseline to indicate that
warming from 1950 is predominately man made, doesn't
mean that 1985 to 2005 is the «new» baseline or Zero for
future warming.
But it does
mean that the IPCC's climate scientists were wrong about
future global
warming, and that the consensus is now changing due to actual climate reality.
However, with all the above stated, this does not
mean that climate change is not happening; that human activities have no influence on weather and climate; nor that global
warming won't occur in the near
future.
``... the
future evolution of the global
mean temperature may hold surprises on both the
warm and cold ends of the spectrum due entirely to internal variability that lie well outside the envelope of a steadily increasing global
mean temperature.»
Scratch an global
warming activist and you will find, not an altruistic crusader for a safer, cleaner
future, but a
mean, self - aggrandizing misanthrope who is perfectly comfortable with lying and cheating in the service of spreading misery among as many people as possible.
When we constrain the model projections with observations, we obtain greater
means and narrower ranges of
future global
warming across the major radiative forcing scenarios, in general.
«The global
warming that has occurred so far is merely a fraction of what we're going to see in the
future, and global
warming does not
mean we're not going to have winters,» Singh explained.
Undoubtedly, there are mistaken understandings and new dynamics to be understood in AGW, that does not
mean the idea that we are causing
warming or can influence temperature is null and void and we can just walk away without responsibility for stewardship for our children's and the planets and all that inhabit it
futures.
The multi-model ensemble
mean warmings for the three
future periods in the different experiments are given in Table 10.5, among other results.
If you believe, as I do, that radiative forcing tends to cause global
mean temperature increase, then it is a contradiction to believe that
future rates of
warming will be higher when increases of radiative forcing are slower than they were in the past.