I believe that analysis of temperature and dewpoint data at NOAA NWS cooperative climate station locations, many stations with more than 110 years of daily maximum minimum and
mean temperature data, has great value which is not being fully utilized by scientists and the public.
Indeed, there's a world of difference between citing one paper that has done something that MIGHT rebalance the global
mean temperature data — as Joe's post suggests — and then assuming that the problem is fixed and the indicator remains the first best only way to measure global goals despite the fact that natural variability in the global mean surface temperature will also make that a sluggish measure.
Rate of global sea - level rise based on the data of Church & White (2006), and global
mean temperature data of GISS, both smoothed.
I picked three high - altitude stations and summarized the June - July - August
mean temperature data from NOAA.
The global
mean temperature data shows a 60 - years cycle as shown in the following graph.
Being ahead of the trend
means the temperature data can stop increasing and yet the warming trend continues until it «catches up» with the data.
However, I offer you below my interpretation of the global
mean temperature data so that you can attack it instead (play the ball, not the man).
My description is much, much better than IPCC's description of the global
mean temperature data shown in the following graph = >
Abstract We study trends and temporal correlations in the monthly
mean temperature data of Prague and Melbourne derived from four state - of - the - art general circulation models that are currently used in studies of anthropogenic effects on the atmosphere: GFDL - R15 - a, CSIRO - Mk2, ECHAM4 / OPYC3 and HADCM3.
However, the average daily
mean temperature data at Minneapolis shows that from the first of the month up to this morning, only 3 of the days in August have been below normal.
Not exact matches
That
means researchers have less information and higher uncertainties when it comes to translating the
data into measurements that the models can use, such as air
temperature and humidity.
«We really can't detect these changes yet in the existing
data in the way we can detect in changes, for example, in the global
mean temperature,» he said.
The study took
data on the rise in
temperatures over the most recent decades, and worked out what this
means for the coming decades.
Underwater
temperatures are much more variable, and it may take decades of
data to reveal a significant change, so we're not sure if this
means that we just don't have enough
data to detect it yet.»
The analysis of high - frequency surface air
temperature,
mean sea - level pressure, wind speed and direction and cloud - cover
data from the solar eclipse of 20 March 2015 from the UK, Faroe Islands and Iceland, published today (Monday 22 August 2016), sheds new light on the phenomenon.
«The first step was to reconstruct the history of global
mean temperatures for the last 784,000 years, using combined
data from marine sediment cores, ice cores, and computer simulations covering the last eight glacial cycles,» said Friedrich, a post-doctoral researcher at IPRC.
Lord Monckton made up
data on atmospheric CO2 concentration and global
mean temperature that he claimed were IPCC predictions.
Just on the off - chance the 3rd comment is serious: Pluto has not been observed for a full orbit, so we have no
data on secular changes in its
mean temperature.
However, comparison of the global, annual
mean time series of near - surface
temperature (approximately 0 to 5 m depth) from this analysis and the corresponding SST series based on a subset of the International Comprehensive Ocean - Atmosphere
Data Set (ICOADS) database (approximately 134 million SST observations; Smith and Reynolds, 2003 and additional data) shows a high correlation (r = 0.96) for the period 1955 to 2
Data Set (ICOADS) database (approximately 134 million SST observations; Smith and Reynolds, 2003 and additional
data) shows a high correlation (r = 0.96) for the period 1955 to 2
data) shows a high correlation (r = 0.96) for the period 1955 to 2005.
The uncertainties associated with reconstructing hemispheric
mean or global
mean temperatures from these
data increase substantially backward in time through this period and are not yet fully quantified.
You stated «The red line is the annual global -
mean GISTEMP
temperature record (though any other
data set would do just as well),...
Data of climate variables (
mean precipitation;
mean temperature;
mean ground frost frequency) at monthly intervals (1961 - 90) were sourced from the IPCC (http://www.ipcc-
data.org).
After consideration of a range of elements of the water - energy dynamic (Hawkins et al., 2003), we made use of quarterly climatic
data of 1961 - 90,
mean annual precipitation and
mean temperature (New et al., 1999).
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Using long - term
data from the U.S Historical Climatology Network (USHCN) and preliminary
data from the Climate Division Database, the U.S. nationally averaged
temperature during October was 56.9 °F (13.8 °C) which was 2.1 °F (1.2 °C) above the 1901 - 2000 long - term
mean, tied for 9th warmest on record.
When differences in scaling between previous studies are accounted for, the various current and previous estimates of NH
mean surface
temperature are largely consistent within uncertainties, despite the differences in methodology and mix of proxy
data back to approximately A.D. 1000... Conclusions are less definitive for the SH and globe, which we attribute to larger uncertainties arising from the sparser available proxy
data in the SH.
How much UHI contamination remains in the global
mean temperatures has been tested in papers such as Parker (2005, 2006) which found there was no effective difference in global trends if one segregates the
data between windy and calm days.
The adjustments are unlikely to significantly affect estimates of century - long trends in global -
mean temperatures, as the
data before, 1940 and after the mid-1960s are not expected to require further corrections for changes from uninsulated bucket to engine room intake measurements.
This
means that for the first time a large number of models can be readily tested against
temperature data recorded AFTER those models were finalized.
Joe cites to a very recent article that re-estimates global
mean temperature in two ways that might offset some of the bias for under - sampling the arctic in one existing global
data set.
(B) Records subdivided by those that extend 2000 years (n = 17) versus shorter records (n = 6), along with the 10 - year -
mean Arctic - wide summer
temperature through 2000 from the CRUTEM3
data series (14)(red line).
If you want a really really simple statistical climate model, try correlating global
mean annual
temperature & / or sea level with the CO2
data from Mauna Loa.
Does that
mean the global
mean surface
temperature trends over the 20th Century, or just that some 20th Century
data is used?
All of the radiosonde
data are measuring the tropospheric
temperature trend under the same noisy (i.e., weather) conditions, so we can usefully calculate the overall
mean AND standard deviation of the
means.
Since they were «always there» and happened to be the same ones in the sunspot
data, and the ones in the sunspot
data were the same ones noted in the literature for sun phenomena as having physical basis, I assumed they probably were physical reality in the
temperature data (doesn't
mean they were though).
More than 95 % of the 5 yr running
mean of the surface
temperature change since 1850 can be replicated by an integration of the sunspot
data (as a proxy for ocean heat content), departing from the average value over the period of the sunspot record (~ 40SSN), plus the superimposition of a ~ 60 yr sinusoid representing the observed oceanic oscillations.
I translate this as effects of La - Nina starting from a higher energy atmosphere, corresponding to overall higher
temperatures throughout the atmosphere at the beginning and the end of a LaNina (not necessarily measured fully measured by conventional
means due to lack of
data resolution).
Large variability reduces the number of new records — which is why the satellite series of global
mean temperature have fewer expected records than the surface
data, despite showing practically the same global warming trend: they have more short - term variability.
The attribution study was based on series of 5 - yr -
mean temperatures and spatial averages of 90 degree sectors (i.e. to four different sectors), where sectors and periods with no valid
data were excluded.
If you're talking about global
mean temperature I would advise you to compare the projections of the IPCC to the actual measurements of GISS as well as HadCRUT, RSS MSU, and UAH MSU measured
data.
Nevertheless, information from independent
data suggest an increase in global
mean temperatures even over the last decade.
So far, the
data suggest it is a more responsive measure, but of course OHC alone is inadequate — not least because of coverage issues that are even worse than the GMT [global
mean temperature]
data sets.
The graphs compare the global
mean temperature estimated by the models with that estimated from the
data.
I therefore assume that the
data from Cowtan & Way is the methodologically best estimate of the global
mean temperature which we currently have.
This can be done a number of ways, firstly, plotting the observational
data and the models used by IPCC with a common baseline of 1980 - 1999
temperatures (as done in the 2007 report)(Note that the model output is for the annual
mean, monthly variance would be larger):
The figure to the left shows the spatial
mean temperature over all grid boxes in the HadCRUT3
data set that have continuous monthly coverage over the 1901 - 2008 period.
Mean temperature,
mean monthly precipitation, frequency of hot / cold days / nights, and indices of extreme precipitation are all estimated for each country based on observed and modeled
data.
Then as other
data accumulate,
data like the time series of global
mean temperature, you can compute the posterior distribution given the new
data.
I
meant that
mean temperature of the world has developed (according to the
data to date) differently from forecast (or «anticipated») by scenarios A and B. It's almost as if the increased CO2 since 1988 has had no effect.
I made
temperature plots from the reanalysis 2 (NCEP / DOE)
data for the North Pole (actually a zonal
mean at 88.5 ° N; there's no grid point at the pole) and for the zonal
means at 85 ° N, 81 ° N and 75 ° N (excluding land and the last also excluding the always ice - free parts of the Atlantic).