The SCE also provides
measures of uncertainty in expectations for the main outcomes of interest.
This allows the computation of
measures of uncertainty in addition to a mean intensity.
Far better this than running a dozen GCMs with funamentally different assumptions about climate feedbacks, plotting them on a graph and claiming that as
a measure of the uncertainty in the behaviour of the real climate.
With nonstationary statistics the standard error of the fit over past years is not a good
measure of the uncertainty in the prediction.
The ensemble member approach is commonly used to approximate
a measure of uncertainty in modeled results.
«Quantified
measures of uncertainty in a finding expressed probabilistically (based on statistical analysis of observations or model results, or expert judgment).»
It is good, as SteveM notes in this thread, that scientists have taken another look at the SST uncertainties and biases, but reading from the article (see comment in quotes below) one still comes away with a sense that we have no final hard and fast objective
measure of the uncertainties in the temperature measurements.
This is due to at least
a measure of uncertainty in interpreting the service provider's obligations under the Personal Information Protection and Electronic Documents Act.
Not exact matches
In a conference held on Tuesday, Lee said:» «We kept the base rate unchanged today as there is a need to closely examine growing protectionist measures and uncertainties abroad, although the local economy is expected to keep firm growth on the back of improvements in the global economy.&raqu
In a conference held on Tuesday, Lee said:» «We kept the base rate unchanged today as there is a need to closely examine growing protectionist
measures and
uncertainties abroad, although the local economy is expected to keep firm growth on the back
of improvements
in the global economy.&raqu
in the global economy.»
«Although we expect that the Greek government will implement the required
measures, the risk
of early elections is increasing given the rising political cost to the government and its slim majority
in the parliament... Early elections might bring a new and more reform - minded conservative government, but Greece's economy would be hit again by prolonged
uncertainty, after having just started to record positive growth,» Moody's said.
Because
of the
uncertainties in the marketplace — and the very real threats to many companies» survival — many, many leaders see the concept
of «culture» and the tasks
of defining and managing it as luxuries that only get attention once more concrete and easier - to -
measure objectives are handled.
In a sign
of some
uncertainty among investors about the impact
of the BOJ's latest
measures, Japanese markets were volatile following the announcement, with the benchmark Nikkei stock index down giving up initial gains and moving into negative territory.
These risks and
uncertainties include: Gilead's ability to achieve its anticipated full year 2018 financial results; Gilead's ability to sustain growth
in revenues for its antiviral and other programs; the risk that private and public payers may be reluctant to provide, or continue to provide, coverage or reimbursement for new products, including Vosevi, Yescarta, Epclusa, Harvoni, Genvoya, Odefsey, Descovy, Biktarvy and Vemlidy ®; austerity
measures in European countries that may increase the amount
of discount required on Gilead's products; an increase
in discounts, chargebacks and rebates due to ongoing contracts and future negotiations with commercial and government payers; a larger than anticipated shift
in payer mix to more highly discounted payer segments and geographic regions and decreases
in treatment duration; availability
of funding for state AIDS Drug Assistance Programs (ADAPs); continued fluctuations
in ADAP purchases driven by federal and state grant cycles which may not mirror patient demand and may cause fluctuations
in Gilead's earnings; market share and price erosion caused by the introduction
of generic versions
of Viread and Truvada, an uncertain global macroeconomic environment; and potential amendments to the Affordable Care Act or other government action that could have the effect
of lowering prices or reducing the number
of insured patients; the possibility
of unfavorable results from clinical trials involving investigational compounds; Gilead's ability to initiate clinical trials
in its currently anticipated timeframes; the levels
of inventory held by wholesalers and retailers which may cause fluctuations
in Gilead's earnings; Kite's ability to develop and commercialize cell therapies utilizing the zinc finger nuclease technology platform and realize the benefits
of the Sangamo partnership; Gilead's ability to submit new drug applications for new product candidates
in the timelines currently anticipated; Gilead's ability to receive regulatory approvals
in a timely manner or at all, for new and current products, including Biktarvy; Gilead's ability to successfully commercialize its products, including Biktarvy; the risk that physicians and patients may not see advantages
of these products over other therapies and may therefore be reluctant to prescribe the products; Gilead's ability to successfully develop its hematology / oncology and inflammation / respiratory programs; safety and efficacy data from clinical studies may not warrant further development
of Gilead's product candidates, including GS - 9620 and Yescarta
in combination with Pfizer's utomilumab; Gilead's ability to pay dividends or complete its share repurchase program due to changes
in its stock price, corporate or other market conditions; fluctuations
in the foreign exchange rate
of the U.S. dollar that may cause an unfavorable foreign currency exchange impact on Gilead's future revenues and pre-tax earnings; and other risks identified from time to time
in Gilead's reports filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the SEC).
Uncertainty about the outcome of the US election, which affected the autumn survey, has given way to uncertainty about the measures that will be put in place by the incoming US administration and their impact on Canadian
Uncertainty about the outcome
of the US election, which affected the autumn survey, has given way to
uncertainty about the measures that will be put in place by the incoming US administration and their impact on Canadian
uncertainty about the
measures that will be put
in place by the incoming US administration and their impact on Canadian businesses.
Thanks to unprecedented levels
of uncertainty across many financial markets — particularly at the beginning
of the year when China's collapsing stock prices sent shockwaves through equities markets worldwide, and then
in June
in the aftermath
of the United Kingdom's decision to leave the European Union — investors piled into gold as a safety
measure.
While managers and industry experts anticipate the introduction
of tapering
measures in 2018,
uncertainty remains with regard to the pace
of these changes.
Moreover, «there is particularly high
uncertainty about
measuring the deviation
of output from its potential,» and the values
of the coefficients, a and b,
in Taylor's rule need to be specified.
From the qualitative interviews, participants expressed
uncertainty about their understanding
of kilojoules, while only 40 %
of participants
in intercept surveys correctly answered that kilojoules and calories
measured the same thing.
Two
of these reviews produce summary
measures suggesting parent training programmes have a significant positive effect
in crime prevention [12] and for non-compliant children [13] although this latter review does not provide any indication
of the
uncertainty of the effect estimate.
The Corker concession was one
of several lingering
uncertainties in the bill that Senate aides said would be nailed down as the
measure neared a floor vote.
«By requiring these additional
measures of accountability, the State has signaled a stronger commitment to protecting its own fiscal interest
in a time
of economic
uncertainty.
De Blasio testified against the
measure when he spoke about his budget priorities
in Albany last week, saying it would «produce
uncertainty in financing and unnecessarily add difficulty and delay to the process
of building the affordable housing struggling New Yorkers need.»
Using a representative sample
of 20 different methods for predicting extreme sea levels the researchers focused intensely on the
measures of uncertainty that accompany any prediction, but that are particularly vexing
in the analysis
of extremes.
Preserving their
uncertainty would require one particle
in the pair to instantly know and react when the other is
measured — even at the other end
of the universe.
Formulated
in 1927 by the German physicist Werner Heisenberg, the
uncertainty principle puts strict limits on how accurately one can
measure the position, velocity, energy, and other properties
of a particle.
Researchers at Aalto University and VTT Technical Research Centre
of Finland have succeeded
in developing a method which helps to improve the relative
uncertainty in measuring the luminous efficacy
of LEDs from the approximate five percent
of today to one per cent
in the future.
The
measured uncertainty in location capability was 16 meters, much higher than the target
of 3 meters, but this metric can be improved through future noise suppression techniques, increased sensor bandwidth, and improved digital algorithms that can accurately extract distance measurements, Howe explained.
As one
measure of the
uncertainties, the review's arch critic, Yale University economist Robert Mendelsohn, now says it will be more like tens
of billions
of dollars
in a study that the World Bank has been dithering about publishing.
Physicists
measure the strength
of signals
in multiples
of the experimental
uncertainty, σ, and the discrepancy now stands at 3.5 σ — short
of the 5 σ needed to claim a discovery, but interesting enough to warrant trying again.
A separate experiment
measuring the atoms
in a silicon sphere has calculated Planck's constant down to an
uncertainty of 20 parts per billion, while the best watt measurement has achieved an
uncertainty of just 19 parts per billion.
«We've done the world's best job
of decreasing the
uncertainty in the
measured rate
of universal expansion and
of accurately assessing the size
of this
uncertainty,» said Filippenko, «yet we find that our
measured rate
of expansion is probably incompatible with the rate expected from observations
of the young universe, suggesting that there's something important missing
in our physical understanding
of the universe.»
The simple question
of whether the medieval period was warm or cold is not particularly interesting — given the
uncertainty in the forcings (solar and volcanic) and climate sensitivity, any conceivable temperature anomaly (which remember is being
measured in tenths
of a degree) is unlikely to constrain anything.
These methods resulted
in uncertainties,
in part because it was impossible to
measure all
of the emissions sites, and scientists were therefore required to make assumptions about the quantity and strength
of the sources.
«We were able to
measure precisely the density
of exoplanets that are similar to Earth
in terms
of their size, mass, and irradiation, with an
uncertainty of less than 10 percent, which is a first and a decisive step
in the characterization
of potential habitability,» said Brice - Olivier Demory, a professor at the Center for Space and Habitability and co-author
of the study, which was published
in late January 2018
in the journal Astronomy and Astrophysics.
This
uncertainty motivates our third and final analytic approach, where we
measure the bias
in teachers» expectations as the difference between students» actual outcomes and whatever we would have expected based on everything we can observe about them
in the absence
of self - fulfilling prophecies.
However, it is important to realize there is
uncertainty in VA
measures, which are estimates that may be based on only a few classrooms
of students, so the gains from removing teachers identified as ineffective based on a limited number
of years
of data are smaller.
As we are all too aware, turbulence and frequent changes
in accountability
measures are creating a culture
of uncertainty in education
in recent times, and here lies the inherent problem.
Licensure assessments for those entering teaching reflect this
uncertainty; virtually all
measure some aspects
of candidates» personal content knowledge but few test their knowledge at a standard adequate for teaching it, and even fewer require evidence
of performance ability —
in part because there is no professional consensus around what a new teacher should be able to do.
In metrology,
measuring sticks must be traceably calibrated against standard tools
of measurement, which must further be traced to primary standards based on physical constants, such as units
of wavelength
of light that have low
measures of uncertainty.
Simply put, volatility is the
measure of «nervousness» that's
in the markets, based on a sense
of uncertainty as far as what the futures prices might do, or where those prices might go.
The study also uses survey data from developers to gauge the effect
of timeline
uncertainty in each municipality, with responses
measured on a five - point scale from (1.0) «encourages development» to (5.0) «would not pursue development due to uncertain approval timelines.»
Throw
in the unemployment rate (as a
measure of buyer
uncertainty) and the and the range narrows further.
But instead
of lamenting these
uncertainties, we believe there is value
in measuring them.
By examining every gesture from the summits
of conceptualism I can
measure the distance between the slowness generated by
uncertainty and the speed that accelerates convictions» (Marti Cormand) Born
in Spain
in 1970, Marti Cormand lives and works
in Brooklyn, NY.
NEW YORK — Despite continued
uncertainty about the economy, many museums saw improvements
in their financial health last year, reaping the benefits
of cutbacks and other cautionary fiscal
measures taken
in the recent past.
I can determine the standard
uncertainty for all the measured variables from statistics It is falsifiable — i can move a body at a certain velocity for a certain time and measure the traveled distance If the traveled distance does not fit with calculated distance within the uncertainty calculated by using the international standard Guide to the expression of Uncertainty in Measurement the model migh
uncertainty for all the
measured variables from statistics It is falsifiable — i can move a body at a certain velocity for a certain time and
measure the traveled distance If the traveled distance does not fit with calculated distance within the
uncertainty calculated by using the international standard Guide to the expression of Uncertainty in Measurement the model migh
uncertainty calculated by using the international standard Guide to the expression
of Uncertainty in Measurement the model migh
Uncertainty in Measurement the model might be wrong.
Example: ``... water storage capacity
in a region, taking into account that the supply
of the resource, the flow into the reserve, is uncertain, that a
measure of the
uncertainty, the variance, is likely to increase with climate change...
But I would really have preferred if they had written
in Helvetica, 30, Bold that the
uncertainty band is not on the actual, as
measured in the field, global average temperature, but on their matematical model
of it, and because
of the steps that model contain, probably an order
of magnitude too optimistic with respect to the actual temperature.
I can
measure the height
of my desk above the floor easily to within a couple
of millimeters, even if I have a one - meter
uncertainty in its absolute height above sea level.
[Response: Dropping outliers just because they don't agree with your preconceived ideas is a classical error
in statistics — it's much better to use the spread as a
measure of the
uncertainty.