The spread between the two - year note yield and the 10 - year note yield, a widely - watched
measure of the yield curve, narrowed to 42.8 basis points, the tightest since September 2007.
The spread between the 2 - year note yield and the 10 - year note yield, a widely - watched
measure of the yield curve, widened to 49 basis points, or 0.49 percentage point, from 41 basis points on Tuesday.
Meanwhile, one
measure of the yield curve, the difference between the 10 - Year Treasury Note rate and the 3 - month Treasury Bill rate, fell by 7 basis points.
Not exact matches
But the bank has taken more extreme
measures, such as ramping up purchases to more than 40 percent
of the market overall and saying it would control the
yield curve by keeping the 10 - year government bond
yield around 0 percent.
These steps include: efforts to simplify prospectus requirements for retail vanilla bonds and ease the personal liability
of company directors; improving market transparency through the RBA's publication
of new
measures of corporate bond
yields; the lengthening
of the government bond
curve; and the listing
of certain fixed - income securities on the Australian Securities Exchange.
As usual, I don't place too much emphasis on this sort
of forecast, but to the extent that I make any comments at all about the outlook for 2006, the bottom line is this: 1) we can't rule out modest potential for stock appreciation, which would require the maintenance or expansion
of already high price / peak earnings multiples; 2) we also should recognize an uncomfortably large potential for market losses, particularly given that the current bull market has now outlived the median and average bull, yet at higher valuations than most bulls have achieved, a flat
yield curve with rising interest rate pressures, an extended period
of internal divergence as
measured by breadth and other market action, and complacency at best and excessive bullishness at worst, as
measured by various sentiment indicators; 3) there is a moderate but still not compelling risk
of an oncoming recession, which would become more
of a factor if we observe a substantial widening
of credit spreads and weakness in the ISM Purchasing Managers Index in the months ahead, and; 4) there remains substantial potential for U.S. dollar weakness coupled with «unexpectedly» persistent inflation pressures, particularly if we do observe economic weakness.
Another indicator
of financial conditions is the slope
of the
yield curve, as
measured by the spread between the
yield on 10 - year bonds and the target cash rate.
While the combination
of rapid credit growth and below - average interest rates suggests that financial conditions remain expansionary, the slope
of the
yield curve, as
measured by the spread between the
yield on 10 - year bonds and the cash rate, suggests a somewhat different picture.
The «
yield curve»
measures the level
of interest rates across the maturity spectrum.
It remains to be seen if this trend continues after the U.S.
curve has flattened by 52 basis points as
measured by the
yield of the S&P / BGCantor Current 30 Year U.S. Treasury Index.
A
measured tightening pace is expected, and most
of the pressure will be on the short end
of the
yield curve.
To
measure the world's
yield curve, we'll use the countries
of the G7, excluding Japan, which has been out
of step with other large economies for more than a decade.
No doubt, the slope
of the
yield curve, as
measured by the spread between two - and 10 - year government bonds, has been flattening since 2014 in both Canada and the United States, and the trend has recently intensified: as we headed into December, the
curve sat at its flattest level since the Great Recession.
A better evaluation
of the situation
measures each year's «total return» - the combination
of the coupon's
yield, the gain from rolling down the
yield curve plus the capital loss.
Duration
measures the first derivative
of the price /
yield curve - the slope
of a tangent line.
With the Fed trying to manipulate the
yield curve for its own policy purposes, starving savers
of income, the
yield curve is not a useful
measure.
Topics range from the Sharpe ratio (which
measures an investment's return per unit
of risk) and how it is calculated to
yield -
curve «flatteners.»
Convexity
measures the deviation
of a bond's price /
yield curve from a straight line; that is, convexity
measures the degree
of curvature
of the price /
yield relationship.
Given these circumstances, a bond ETF investor has to look at riskier propositions like bond funds with higher duration (i.e. a
measure of interest rate risk) since bond funds targeting the higher end
of the
yield curve generally have higher rates
of interest attached.