This does not, for even a moment, change the fact that the most
reliable measures of valuation are now an average of 3.0 times their historical norms.
The problem is that we often see investors dismissing
various measures of valuation, or proposing alternative measures, without any examination of the logic or historical validity of those measures whatsoever.
Although very few people can make such distinctions in the short - term, there are
many measures of valuations that work well in the intermediate - term.
Based on Professor Robert Shiller's
measure of valuation P / E10, today's valuations are almost identical to those just before the Great Depression and higher than those of the worst time financially for starting retirement, the late 1960s.
The most
common measure of valuation is the forward price - to - earnings multiple, which compares a stock's price to the earnings analysts expect over the next year.
Since
traditional measures of valuation are broadly overvalued, analysts who are recommending additional equity exposure tend to use P / E ratios based on future estimates for operating earnings.
By one closely
watched measure of valuation, Alan Greenspan's irrational exuberance warning should be keeping investors near the sell button.
Although Wall Street continues to assert that valuations are «reasonable given the level of interest rates,» keep in mind that the most reliable
measures of valuation imply negative 10 - 12 year total returns for the S&P 500.
In my view, the necessary objective is to accept market risk when the likely return / risk profile is attractive, based on
observable measures of valuation and market action, and to avoid, hedge, or diversify away those risks that don't carry attractive return / risk profiles on average.
When you
bring measures of valuation into the model, you find that the true 30 - year Safe Withdrawal Rate has varied between 2 % and 9 % +.
The manager's response is unambiguous: «As the rise in small cap prices accelerates and
measures of valuation approach or exceed past bubble peaks, we believe it is now fair to characterize the current small cap market as a bubble.»
If you are to make really big money in the stock market, resign yourself to the fact that just about everything you buy, if you are buying stocks correctly, will seem too high priced by just about any
traditional measure of valuation.
Second, our own admitted difficulty in the advancing period since 2009 did not reflect a shortfall in either
our measures of valuation or our measures of market internals.
As Graham and Dodd wrote in Security Analysis (1934), referring to the final advance that led to the 1929 market peak, the reason investors shifted their attention away from historically - reliable
measures of valuation was «first, that the records of the past were proving an undependable guide to investment; and, second, that the rewards offered by the future had become irresistibly alluring.»
Nearly
every measure of valuation, trend analysis, sentiment and economic performance is discussed.
For instance, across our nine
measures of valuation (none of which include bonds) the US appears to be 54 % overvalued.
The measures of valuation and market action that define each «Market Climate» are factors that can be tested in decades of historical data, are objective, observable, and have strongly affected the average profile of return and risk in the markets over time.
The most reliable
measures of valuation we identify are now between 2.6 and 3.0 times their pre-bubble historical norms.
3) SWR Research showed us that P / E10 is an excellent
measure of valuation.
The relative dividend yield is
a measure of valuation.
His measure of valuation P / E10, which is the best that I have found so far, is still at 1929 levels, around 27.
There are several good choices for
the measure of valuation.
[The percentage earnings yield is 100E10 / P or 100 % / [P / E10], where P / E10 is Professor Robert Shiller's
measure of valuation.
Dividend yield defines one
measure of valuation.
I used Professor Robert Shiller's P / E10 as
the measure of valuation.