Truth, what you are doing could be
measured on a total return basis, but it wouldn't make a lot of difference.
Not exact matches
The performance goals upon which the payment or vesting of any Incentive Award (other than Options and stock appreciation rights) that is intended to qualify as Performance -
Based Compensation depends shall relate to one or more of the following Performance
Measures: market price of Capital Stock, earnings per share of Capital Stock, income, net income or profit (before or after taxes), economic profit, operating income, operating margin, profit margin, gross margins,
return on equity or stockholder equity,
total shareholder
return, market capitalization, enterprise value, cash flow (including but not limited to operating cash flow and free cash flow), cash position,
return on assets or net assets,
return on capital,
return on invested
Last week, the U.S. equity market climbed to the steepest valuation level in history,
based on the valuation
measures most highly correlated with actual subsequent S&P 500 10 - 12 year
total returns, across a century of market cycles.
On the
basis of the most reliable valuation
measures we identify (those most tightly correlated with actual subsequent 10 - 12 year S&P 500
total returns), current market valuations stand about 140 - 165 % above historical norms.
Based on the valuation
measures most strongly correlated with actual subsequent
total returns (and those correlations are near or above 90 %), we continue to estimate that the S&P 500 will achieve zero or negative nominal
total returns over horizons of 8 years or less, and only about 2 % annually over the coming decade.
On the basis of valuation measures most tightly related to actual subsequent long - term market returns, we also estimate that the S&P 500 is likely to be lower 12 years from now, compared with current levels, though dividend income may push the total return just over zero on that horizo
On the
basis of valuation
measures most tightly related to actual subsequent long - term market
returns, we also estimate that the S&P 500 is likely to be lower 12 years from now, compared with current levels, though dividend income may push the
total return just over zero
on that horizo
on that horizon.
However, annualized risk, as
measured by standard deviation calculated
based on monthly
total return for the same period stood at 15.25 %.
Note that
on the
basis of this
measure, expected 12 - year S&P 500
total returns associated with current valuation levels are negative, and even if one was to shift the blue line up somewhat closer to the red line in recent years, the associated
return expectation would still be close to zero (which is what I actually expect
based on MarketCap / GVA and other historically reliable
measures).
(
On a
total return basis, the corresponding loss figures would be -60 %, -55 %, -51 %, -49 % and -42 %, respectively, and would put the
total return of the S&P 500 behind Treasury bills as
measured from the high of every year since 1998, with the exceptions of 2003 and 2009).
Whereas calculations
based on standard ROI take into account the
total return on an investment, cash -
on - cash
return only
measures the
return on the actual cash invested.
The chart below presents our estimates of prospective 10 - year S&P 500
total returns based on a variety of historically reliable
measures.
² Prior to the introduction of
total return indices in December 1998, the ACWI is
based on the capital only index
measured 50 % in Sterling.
Thereafter it is the
total return index
based on 50 % of the ACWI
measured in Sterling and 50 %
measured in local currencies.
Total return based on the MSCI All Country World Daily Total Return Index, a free float — adjusted market capitalization — weighted index that is designed to measure the equity market performance of developed and emerging ma
return based on the MSCI All Country World Daily
Total Return Index, a free float — adjusted market capitalization — weighted index that is designed to measure the equity market performance of developed and emerging ma
Return Index, a free float — adjusted market capitalization — weighted index that is designed to
measure the equity market performance of developed and emerging markets.