We have directly
measured warming of the oceans, for example, where about 90 percent of the human - caused heat has gone.
Not exact matches
«The beauty
of this study is that easily acquired
measures of reef complexity and depth provide a means
of predicting long term consequences
of ocean warming events,» Dr Wilson says.
Scientists can
measure how much energy greenhouse gases now add (roughly three watts per square meter), but what eludes precise definition is how much other factors — the response
of clouds to
warming, the cooling role
of aerosols, the heat and gas absorbed by
oceans, human transformation
of the landscape, even the natural variability
of solar strength — diminish or strengthen that effect.
Researchers can
measure annual changes in how the melt rate occurs, for example, or the effects
of a single pulse
of warm deep -
ocean water.
Velicogna and her colleagues also
measured a dramatic loss
of Greenland ice, as much as 38 cubic miles per year between 2002 and 2005 — even more troubling, given that an influx
of fresh melt water into the salty North Atlantic could in theory shut off the system
of ocean currents that keep Europe relatively
warm.
WHITEHOUSE: I do come from an
ocean state, and we do
measure the rise in the sea level and we
measure the
warming of Narragansett Bay and we
measure the change in PH. It's serious for us, Senator.
This new
measure of ocean warming is also more robust to some sources
of error in the
ocean observing system.
We also have various tools which have
measured the
warming of the Earth's
oceans.
Now scientists have
measured a rapid recent expansion
of desert - like barrenness in the subtropical
oceans --- in places where surface waters have also been steadily
warming.
Instead, they discuss new ways
of playing around with the aerosol judge factor needed to explain why 20th - century
warming is about half
of the
warming expected for increased in GHGs; and then expand their list
of fudge factors to include smaller volcanos, stratospheric water vapor (published with no estimate
of uncertainty for the predicted change in Ts), transfer
of heat to the deeper
ocean (where changes in heat content are hard to accurately
measure), etc..
While such a «missing heat» explanation for a lack
of recent
warming [i.e., Trenberth's argument that just can not find it yet] is theoretically possible, I find it rather unsatisfying basing an unwavering belief in eventual catastrophic global
warming on a deep -
ocean mechanism so weak we can't even
measure it [i.e., the coldest deep
ocean waters are actually
warmer than they should be by thousandths
of a degree]...
The «
warming»
of the troposphere as
measured by sensible heat is only one very small part
of the energy in the overall climate system, and the part with the very lowest thermal inertia and very sensitive to very small changes in
ocean to atmosphere sensible and latent heat flux such as we see in the ENSO cycle.
Warmer oceans increase d13C
of the atmosphere (
measured!)
This
warming can be seen in measurements
of troposphere temperatures
measured by weather balloons and satellites, in measurements
of ocean heat content, sea surface temperature (
measured in situ and by satellites), air temperatures over the
ocean, air temperature over land.
Most interesting is that the about monthly variations correlate with the lunar phases (peak on full moon) The Helsinki Background measurements 1935 The first background measurements in history; sampling data in vertical profile every 50 - 100m up to 1,5 km; 364 ppm underthe clouds and above Haldane measurements at the Scottish coast 370 ppmCO2 in winds from the sea; 355 ppm in air from the land Wattenberg measurements in the southern Atlantic
ocean 1925-1927 310 sampling stations along the latitudes of the southern Atlantic oceans and parts of the northern; measuring all oceanographic data and CO2 in air over the sea; high ocean outgassing crossing the warm water currents north (> ~ 360 ppm) Buchs measurements in the northern Atlantic ocean 1932 - 1936 sampling CO2 over sea surface in northern Atlantic Ocean up to the polar circle (Greenland, Iceland, Spitsbergen, Barents Sea); measuring also high CO2 near Spitsbergen (Spitsbergen current, North Cape current) 364 ppm and CO2 over sea crossing the Atlantic from Kopenhagen to Newyork and back (Brements on a swedish island Lundegards CO2 sampling on swedish island (Kattegatt) in summer from 1920 - 1926; rising CO2 concentration (+7 ppm) in the 20s; ~ 328 ppm yearly av
ocean 1925-1927 310 sampling stations along the latitudes
of the southern Atlantic
oceans and parts
of the northern;
measuring all oceanographic data and CO2 in air over the sea; high
ocean outgassing crossing the warm water currents north (> ~ 360 ppm) Buchs measurements in the northern Atlantic ocean 1932 - 1936 sampling CO2 over sea surface in northern Atlantic Ocean up to the polar circle (Greenland, Iceland, Spitsbergen, Barents Sea); measuring also high CO2 near Spitsbergen (Spitsbergen current, North Cape current) 364 ppm and CO2 over sea crossing the Atlantic from Kopenhagen to Newyork and back (Brements on a swedish island Lundegards CO2 sampling on swedish island (Kattegatt) in summer from 1920 - 1926; rising CO2 concentration (+7 ppm) in the 20s; ~ 328 ppm yearly av
ocean outgassing crossing the
warm water currents north (> ~ 360 ppm) Buchs measurements in the northern Atlantic
ocean 1932 - 1936 sampling CO2 over sea surface in northern Atlantic Ocean up to the polar circle (Greenland, Iceland, Spitsbergen, Barents Sea); measuring also high CO2 near Spitsbergen (Spitsbergen current, North Cape current) 364 ppm and CO2 over sea crossing the Atlantic from Kopenhagen to Newyork and back (Brements on a swedish island Lundegards CO2 sampling on swedish island (Kattegatt) in summer from 1920 - 1926; rising CO2 concentration (+7 ppm) in the 20s; ~ 328 ppm yearly av
ocean 1932 - 1936 sampling CO2 over sea surface in northern Atlantic
Ocean up to the polar circle (Greenland, Iceland, Spitsbergen, Barents Sea); measuring also high CO2 near Spitsbergen (Spitsbergen current, North Cape current) 364 ppm and CO2 over sea crossing the Atlantic from Kopenhagen to Newyork and back (Brements on a swedish island Lundegards CO2 sampling on swedish island (Kattegatt) in summer from 1920 - 1926; rising CO2 concentration (+7 ppm) in the 20s; ~ 328 ppm yearly av
Ocean up to the polar circle (Greenland, Iceland, Spitsbergen, Barents Sea);
measuring also high CO2 near Spitsbergen (Spitsbergen current, North Cape current) 364 ppm and CO2 over sea crossing the Atlantic from Kopenhagen to Newyork and back (Brements on a swedish island Lundegards CO2 sampling on swedish island (Kattegatt) in summer from 1920 - 1926; rising CO2 concentration (+7 ppm) in the 20s; ~ 328 ppm yearly average
Coby, if the earth is
warming as a result
of increased periodic solar activity (or some other more complex reason) as suggested by the long term cycles mentioned above
measured before man was on earth or industrialized, is it posssible that the observed increases in CO2 in the atmosphere are simply coming from
warmer oceans, since liquids can not hold as much gas at a higher temperature than they can at lower temperature?
Callendar in the 1930's (AGW a factor in early 20th
warming), Plass (radiation balance) and Revelle (
oceans won't absorb all anthropogenic CO2) in the 1950's, Keeling
measuring CO2 in the 1960's, Manabe and others in the 1970's modelling GHG effects, etc - all contributed to the body
of evidence.
There is some correlation between changes in temperature due to global
warming in different parts
of the
ocean, so there might be some reduction below 0.1 C, but how much and how has it been
measured?
The same thing about
measuring two cats and finding the same weight can be said
of recent
warming caused by rise in CO2 and rise
of CO2 happening to be coincident with
warming caused by a natural
ocean cycle (AMDO).
Together, these effects explain a
measured decline in the upper
ocean warming of 0.02 degrees Celsius since 2003, say climate researchers
of the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute KNMI.
Its
warming effect, however, is simultaneously amplified and dampened by positive and negative feedbacks such as increased water vapor (the most powerful greenhouse gas), reduced albedo, which is a
measure of Earth's reflectivity, changes in cloud characteristics, and CO2 exchanges with the
ocean and terrestrial ecosystems.
The
measure of «climate» sensitivity by looking at only tropospheric temperature sensitivity might need to be examined a bit, especially, if turned out to be the case (as some research seems to indicate) that CO2 at 400 ppm induces a permanent La Niña state in the Pacific, while still allowing for rapid
warming in other parts
of the
ocean and climate system.
We also have various tools which have
measured the
warming of the Earth's
oceans.
This is no exaggeration: NASA is the leading agency in studying the effects
of global
warming on the planet, in
measuring the changes in our atmosphere, our
oceans, the weather, and yes, the climate as temperatures increase.
According to the paper, «arguably,
ocean heat content — from the surface to the seafloor — might be a more appropriate
measure of how much our planet is
warming.»
Perhaps we can move on from your (and my) ignorance
of ocean thermal dynamics onto the more substantive and controversial area
of whether and how much
of the
measured warming is due to CO2.
The reason scientists use dozens
of satellites, and thousands
of measuring stations and
ocean floats and balloons and aircraft and other such
measuring operations, over many decades, is so they can say more than a post-Ice Age Cro - Magnon man — «We are in a
warming period».
With a dominant internal component having the structure
of the observed
warming, and with radiative restoring strong enough to keep the forced component small, how can one keep the very strong radiative restoring from producing heat loss from the
oceans totally inconsistent with any
measures of changes in oceanic heat content?
Add in the fact that the thickness
of the ice, which is much harder to
measure, is estimated to have fallen by half since 1979, when satellite records began, and there is probably less ice floating on the Arctic
Ocean now than at any time since a particularly
warm period 8,000 years ago, soon after the last ice age.
The rate
of warming as
measured by
ocean heat content changes over the last 4 years shows that we have DOUBLED the top -
of - atmosphere energy imbalance from 0.6 watts per meter squared to 1.1 watts per meter squared in the last 7 years.
Actually Fielding's use
of that graph is quite informative
of how denialist arguments are framed — the selected bit
of a selected graph (and don't mention the fastest
warming region on the planet being left out
of that data set), or the complete passing over
of short term variability vs longer term trends, or the other
measures and indicators
of climate change from
ocean heat content and sea levels to changes in ice sheets and minimum sea ice levels, or the passing over
of issues like lag time between emissions and effects on temperatures... etc..
To point out just a couple
of things: —
oceans warming slower (or cooling slower) than lands on long - time trends is absolutely normal, because water is more difficult both to
warm or to cool (I mean, we require both a bigger heat flow and more time); at the contrary, I see as a non-sense theory (made by some serrist, but don't know who) that
oceans are storing up heat, and that suddenly they will release such heat as a positive feedback: or the water
warms than no heat can be considered ad «stored» (we have no phase change inside
oceans, so no latent heat) or
oceans begin to release heat but in the same time they have to cool (because they are losing heat); so, I don't feel strange that in last years land temperatures for some series (NCDC and GISS) can be heating up while
oceans are slightly cooling, but I feel strange that they are heating up so much to reverse global trend from slightly negative / stable to slightly positive; but, in the end, all this is not an evidence that lands»
warming is led by UHI (but, this effect, I would not exclude it from having a small part in temperature trends for some regional area, but just small); both because, as writtend, it is normal to have waters
warming slower than lands, and because lands» temperatures are often
measured in a not so precise way (despite they continue to give us a global uncertainity in TT values which is barely the instrumental's one)-- but, to point out, HadCRU and MSU
of last years (I mean always 2002 - 2006) follow much better waters» temperatures trend; — metropolis and larger cities temperature trends actually show an increase in UHI effect, but I think the sites are few, and the covered area is very small worldwide, so the global effect is very poor (but it still can be sensible for regional effects); but I would not run out a small
warming trend for airport measurements due mainly to three things: increasing jet planes traffic, enlarging airports (then more buildings and more asphalt — if you follow motor sports, or simply live in a town / city, you will know how easy they get very
warmer than air during day, and how much it can slow night - time cooling) and overall having airports nearer to cities (if not becoming an area inside the city after some decade
of hurban growth, e.g. Milan - Linate); — I found no point about UHI in towns and villages; you will tell me they are not large cities; but, in comparison with 20-40-60 years ago when they were «countryside», many small towns and villages have become part
of larger hurban areas (at least in Europe and Asia) so examining just larger cities would not be enough in my opinion to get a full view
of UHI effect (still remembering that it has a small global effect: we can say many matters are due to UHI instead
of GW, maybe even that a small part
of measured GW is due to UHI, and that GW measurements are not so precise to make us able to make good analisyses and predictions, but not that GW is due to UHI).
After that you claimed «HOW you will
measure the immeasurable», and I pointed out that the link I already provided was
measuring the temperature
of the
oceans and finding a
warming trend.
This time period is too short to signify a change in the
warming trend, as climate trends are
measured over periods
of decades, not years.12, 29,30,31,32 Such decade - long slowdowns or even reversals in trend have occurred before in the global instrumental record (for example, 1900 - 1910 and 1940 - 1950; see Figure 2.2), including three decade - long periods since 1970, each followed by a sharp temperature rise.33 Nonetheless, satellite and
ocean observations indicate that the Earth - atmosphere climate system has continued to gain heat energy.34
However, more recent research modelling the impacts
of using microbubbles to address global
warming found that the technique would not affect
ocean primary productivity, a
measure of the activity
of primary producers.
Answer: if
warming releases CO2 from the
ocean, whether coming out
of an ice age or when initiated by ACO2, it upsets IPCC's model that the bulge in atmospheric CO2
measured at MLO is all due to man.
Gates tries to fog up the issue by bringing in suspected
warming of the
ocean, which has really only been
measured since around 2003, since ARGO came on line.
Unfortunately using global average surface air temperatures as a
measure of total
warming ignores the fact that most
of the heat (more than 93 %) goes into our
oceans, which continue to
warm without any sign
of a pause, as you can see below.
Sea levels are rising (ask the Mayor
of Miami who has spent tax monies to raise road levels), we've had 15
of the hottest years eve
measured, more precipitation is coming down in heavy doses (think Houston), we're seeing more floods and drought than ever before (consistent with predictions), the
oceans are
measuring warmer, lake ice in North America is thawing sooner (where it happens in northern states and Canada), most glaciers are shrinking, early spring snowpacks out west have declined since the 1950's, growing seasons are longer throughout the plains, bird wintering ranges have moved north, leaf and bloom dates recorded by Thoreau in Walden have shifted in that area, insect populations that used to have one egg - larva - adult cycle in the summer now have two, the list goes on and on.
I do think, however, that it is significant (short term, not a firm trend) that CO2, as
measured at MLO, has been increasing at a smaller rate than in previous years despite the fact that overall anthropogenic CO2 output is not decreasing and, furthermore, that the short term trend
of the absolute increase is also down which indicates a greater rate
of absorption
of CO2 than in previous years — which to me would indicate an ongoing cooling
of the
oceans as per the theory that a cooling
ocean absorbs more CO2 while a
warming ocean releases more CO2.
For example, the
warming of the deep
oceans over the last 50 years is described in terms
of gazillions
of joules (which sounds impressive) rather than what was actually
measured... hundredths
of a degree (not so impressive).
* There is no such thing as a meaningful «Earth» temperature, as some regions are cooling, some are
warming, the depths
of the
ocean have different levels
of heat content that can not be uniformly
measured against a mean, etc..
except we've
measured the deep
ocean temperatures and found that those waters are holding the increased
warming during one
of the natural
warming / cooling cycles.
NASA's «GISS» temp uses land and
ocean - based thermometers which
measure «different parts
of the system [UHI affected parking lots, asphalt heat sinks, AC exhaust air vents], different signal to noise ratio [we bias toward
warm stations], different structural uncertainty [we «homogenise» our data set to cool the past and
warm the present to fit the global
warming narrative].»
It is also when we have increasingly good
measures of atmospheric temperature,
ocean heat content, and the various agents that
warm and cool the climate.
But then again, there is a set
of observations showing that if you add some extra energy in the form
of DLR, the part
of the
ocean that we are able to
measure by its IR emission (the skin)
warms up a little.
As explained in the press release, the scientists began with the
measure of sea level rise between 2005 and 2013, then deducted the amount
of rise due to meltwater (e.g., melting ice sheets and loss
of glacier mass worldwide) and then the amount
of rise due to the expansion
of water from the
warming in the upper portion
of the world's
oceans (which scientists have good data on).
When I started to look at the global
warming issue my initial inclination was to look at
Ocean data, since it's such a huge heat sink, relatively constant backscatter, and potentially the source one would want to
measure with as much accuracy as possible., Also, Seemed to me like it was a «natural» filter
of noisy data.
However, we noted at the time that Dr. Pielke was only considering the heating
of the upper 700 meter
ocean layer, which is also an incomplete
measure of global
warming.
What we have now is that all
measures of what is happening -
ocean heat, sea level, ice sheet melt, land temperatures and atmospheric temperatures are all pointing to
warming.