A description of both the DESRAD concept and the Diurnal Test Facility is presented here along with examples of the model verification data and a brief
measurement uncertainty analysis.
Not exact matches
Included are
uncertainty analyses, maps of the
measurement coverage and many illustrations of the regional and vertical distribution of the warming.
These
measurements become sparser as we go further back in time, hence trend estimates become more uncertain; of course we fully accounted for this
uncertainty in our
analysis.
The two agencies use slightly different methods, so they have different readings for the difference between 2014 and the previous warmest year, 2010, with N.O.A.A. putting it at 0.07 degrees Fahrenheit (0.04 degrees Celsius), while NASA got 0.036 degrees (0.02 Celsius)-- which this
analysis says is well «within
uncertainty of
measurement.»
Accounting for Both Random Errors and Systematic Errors in
Uncertainty Propagation
Analysis of Computer Models Involving Experimental
Measurements with Monte Carlo Methods.
That is, (1) there is dO18
measurement, which I claim should be fairly precise, but you stated has large
uncertainties, and then there is (2) derivation of temperature from dO18 values, where you have indeed pointed out that there could be a number of possibly confounding factors in that
analysis if other variables than temperature are not controlled.
The use of even more recently computer - reconstructed total solar irradiance data (whatever have large
uncertainties) for the period prior to 1976 would not change any of the conclusions in my paper, where quantitative
analyses were emphasized on the influences of humans and the Sun on global surface temperature after 1970 when direct
measurements became available.
He also presented evidence that much of the discrepancy was due to observational
uncertainty, resulting from stratospheric cooling contaminating satellite
measurements of tropospheric temperature (a point that's been noted by the NOAA satellite
analysis team since at least 2004; see: «Contribution of stratospheric cooling to satellite - inferred tropospheric temperature trends»).
Heat moves around the ocean in mysterious ways, and as Trenberth notes there are considerable areas of
uncertainty in deep water
measurements, Arctic heat content and the
analysis techniques themselves.
Yes, there is data
analysis involved and there are
uncertainties... but if you want to call them «guestimates» for this reason, you'd have to call basically every
measurement in the universe a guestimate.
New
analyses of balloon - borne and satellite
measurements of lower - and mid-tropospheric temperature show warming rates that are similar to those of the surface temperature record and are consistent within their respective
uncertainties, largely reconciling a discrepancy noted in the TAR.
Uncertainties should decrease closer to near - current dates (e.g. from denser and more accurate sampling)-- but note that these products also employ different QC and
analysis methods, rely to varying degrees on satellite data, on sea - ice data to constrain polar SST, and on bias adjustments for historical changes in
measurement methods.