Although Wall Street continues to assert that valuations are «reasonable given the level of interest rates,» keep in mind that the most reliable
measures of valuation imply negative 10 - 12 year total returns for the S&P 500.
Not exact matches
Only with a real grasp on the true cash flows
of the business can one get an accurate
measure of the future cash flow growth
implied by the stock's
valuation.
Market -
Implied Duration
of Growth (Growth Appreciation Period)
measures the number
of years
of future profit growth required to justify the current
valuation of the stock.
With the S&P 500 within about 8 %
of its highest level in history, with historically reliable
valuation measures at obscene levels,
implying near - zero 10 - 12 year S&P 500 nominal total returns; with an extended period
of extreme overvalued, overbought, overbullish conditions replaced by deterioration in market internals that signal a clear shift toward risk - aversion among investors; with credit spreads on low - grade debt blowing out to multi-year highs; and with leading economic
measures deteriorating rapidly, we continue to classify market conditions within the most hostile return / risk profile we identify — a classification that has been observed in only about 9 %
of history.
c) Market -
Implied Duration
of Growth (Growth Appreciation Period)
measures the number
of years
of future profit growth required to justify the current
valuation of the stocks in the fund.
The Paradox
of the Zero Bound Subpar Economic Recovery Gets Premium Market
Valuation Wall Street Earnings Expectations Ignore Economic Divergences The Great Divergence An Update on International Market
Valuations Business Cycles, Election Cycles, and Potential Risks An Update on
Valuations and Forward Earnings Assumptions Bond Yields, Earnings Yields, and Inflation A View from the NBER Recession Indicators Three Observations on Third Quarter Earnings Forward Looking
Measures Still Don't Provide Evidence for a V - Shaped Recovery This Earnings Season, Watch Sales Forward Earnings
Imply a Return to Near - Record Profit Margins Without Phoenix Stocks, Volume Continues to Contract Is the Job Market Ready for a Recovery?