Having said that, I do like Pielke's approach of
measuring ocean heat content anomaly as the best way to estimate sensitivity.
There have been early difficulties in
measuring ocean heat.
There have been advances in the last decade or so in
measuring ocean heat content.
GOOS helps us to understand climate through
measuring ocean heat content and sea level.
GOOS helps us to understand climate through
measuring ocean heat content and sea level.
1) thermal expansion of the oceans:
measured ocean heat content keeps increasing and this causes the ocean to expand.
I know nothing about climate science, but just reading your post I wonder if it is possible that the decrease in
measured ocean heat content is mostly a factor of having better tools (the ARGO floating profilers)?
However because we don't
measure ocean heat content below 2000m (about half of the total volume), the OHC you cite applies to the top half volume only, so the average dT in this part of volume is just under 0.1 K (0.08) consistent with the estimates.
Both are used to
measure ocean heat content.
I can think of a number of reasons why
measured Ocean Heat content may be increasing or seem to be increasing even when albedo due to clouds increases reducing the amount of heat to the surface.
Not exact matches
Scientists can
measure how much energy greenhouse gases now add (roughly three watts per square meter), but what eludes precise definition is how much other factors — the response of clouds to warming, the cooling role of aerosols, the
heat and gas absorbed by
oceans, human transformation of the landscape, even the natural variability of solar strength — diminish or strengthen that effect.
The joint NASA / NOAA / CNES / EUMETSAT Jason - 2 satellite
measures sea surface height, which is especially useful in quantifying the
heat stored and released by the
oceans during El Niño years.
As
oceans contain around 80 % of the climate's total energy,
ocean heat is a good
measure of what's happening with our climate.
«This method is a radically new way to
measure change in total
ocean heat,» said Severinghaus.
Since 2003,
ocean heat data has been
measured by the newly deployed Argo network.
Scientists are especially interested in
measuring the amount of hydrogen gas in the plume, which would tell them how much energy and
heat are being generated by chemical reactions in hydrothermal vents at the bottom of the moon's
ocean.
Using intruments to simultaneously
measure the «cool skin», the
ocean below, and the amount of
heat (longwave radiation) reaching the
ocean surface, researchers were able to confirm how greenhouse gases
heat the
ocean.
Nations of the world have launched a cooperative program to
measure changing
ocean heat content, distributing more than 3000 Argo floats around the world
ocean, with each float repeatedly diving to a depth of 2 km and back [66].
The most promising approach is to
measure the rate of changing
heat content of the
ocean, atmosphere, land, and ice [64].
The ongoing difficulty of accurately
measuring the Earth's
ocean heat content has led to premature «skeptic» claims about
ocean cooling.
This found a rapid drop in
ocean heat from 2003, as
measured by the Argo network deployed in 2000.
He plucks out of context a sentence about OHC while ignoring the central argument we are making about that indicator — which is that if most of the
heat is going into the
oceans and we now have substantially better ways to
measure OHC then why not use that
measure.
If global surface temperatures continue not to increase v quickly over the next decade or two then I think this could seriously slow down action to cut GHG emissions, no matter how well understood the «slow - down» is, and no matter how much additional
heat is
measured accumulatng in the
oceans.
Given those assumptions, looking at the forcing over a long - enough multi-decadal period and seeing the temperature response gives an estimate of the transient climate response (TCR) and, additionally if an estimate of the
ocean heat content change is incorporated (which is a
measure of the unrealised radiative imbalance), the ECS can be estimated too.
The key points of the paper are that: i) model simulations with 20th century forcings are able to match the surface air temperature record, ii) they also match the
measured changes of
ocean heat content over the last decade, iii) the implied planetary imbalance (the amount of excess energy the Earth is currently absorbing) which is roughly equal to the
ocean heat uptake, is significant and growing, and iv) this implies both that there is significant
heating «in the pipeline», and that there is an important lag in the climate's full response to changes in the forcing.
Ocean heat is typically measured from buoys dispersed throughout the ocean, and with instruments lowered from ships, with reliable records at least in some places going back to the 1
Ocean heat is typically
measured from buoys dispersed throughout the
ocean, and with instruments lowered from ships, with reliable records at least in some places going back to the 1
ocean, and with instruments lowered from ships, with reliable records at least in some places going back to the 1960s.
The chart shows that starting in the late 1940's, we have been able to
measure the
heat content of the top 2000 meters of
ocean accurately enough so that annual changes in
ocean heat content of less than 1e22 joules can be detected and tracked.
Which implies that since the late» 40's - early» 50's we have had a data collection system deployed capable of
measuring and tracking the annual TEMPERATURE of the top 2000 meters of the
oceans of the world (necessary to calculate its
heat content)-- all of them — with a precision and accuracy in the millidegree range.
use of
ocean heat uptake — which amounts to only ~ 86 % of total
heat uptake — as a
measure of total
heat uptake despite the observational studies Marvel et al. critique using estimates that included non-
ocean heat uptake;
Just a guess, with out actually crunching the numbers, but the energy transfer (0.3 watt / m2) and the time frame (2003 — present) are both too small, to
measure any transfer, in such a large
heat sink as the
oceans.
The
ocean cycle that has been releasing less
heat is bound swing back to releasing average amounts and the flat tropospheric temperatures
measuring sensible
heat will show a rebound.
Instead, they discuss new ways of playing around with the aerosol judge factor needed to explain why 20th - century warming is about half of the warming expected for increased in GHGs; and then expand their list of fudge factors to include smaller volcanos, stratospheric water vapor (published with no estimate of uncertainty for the predicted change in Ts), transfer of
heat to the deeper
ocean (where changes in
heat content are hard to accurately
measure), etc..
While such a «missing
heat» explanation for a lack of recent warming [i.e., Trenberth's argument that just can not find it yet] is theoretically possible, I find it rather unsatisfying basing an unwavering belief in eventual catastrophic global warming on a deep -
ocean mechanism so weak we can't even
measure it [i.e., the coldest deep
ocean waters are actually warmer than they should be by thousandths of a degree]...
The «warming» of the troposphere as
measured by sensible
heat is only one very small part of the energy in the overall climate system, and the part with the very lowest thermal inertia and very sensitive to very small changes in
ocean to atmosphere sensible and latent
heat flux such as we see in the ENSO cycle.
We
measure the
heat in the
oceans by
measuring temperatures.
Yes, it takes a while for the deep
ocean to
heat up, but we're not
measuring deep
ocean heat, we're
measuring the air temperature in the boundary layer.
The variation of net global sensible and latent
heat flux from the
ocean, being impacted greatly by ENSO, the PDO, and the AMO, plays the dominant role in the fluctuations in total energy output
measured at the TOA over short - term time frames.
The combined
heat can be modeled at the surface but can not currently be
measured because it has dived into some deep, lonely part of the
ocean where it can't be found.
Temperatures
measured by the ARGO floats and the XBTs before them are rising in the raw data, and the
ocean heat content (OHC) is simply observed temperature change scaled by the thermal mass of the
ocean layer in question - not some kind of complex model.
This warming can be seen in measurements of troposphere temperatures
measured by weather balloons and satellites, in measurements of
ocean heat content, sea surface temperature (
measured in situ and by satellites), air temperatures over the
ocean, air temperature over land.
By that
measure, the Gulf of Maine is
heating up faster than 99 percent of the world's
oceans.
However, in all the recent WUWT posts (Willis's and Nic Lewis's) they seem to use
measured changes in forcing (\ Delta F) and
measured changes in
ocean heating rate (\ Delta Q).
However, the OBSERVED and
MEASURED NET
heat energy flow is FROM the
oceans TO the atmosphere, as evidenced by evaporation and the subsequent formation of clouds, and eventually, precipitation.
lgl says: April 14, 2011 at 11:15 am Good, then you realize TSI is not a
measure of T «C * dT / dt = dH / dt = Q - E» and «Time constant τ varies linearly with
heat capacity» The longer cycles will mix more of the
ocean, thus larger
heat capacity and larger time constant.
The demonstrated ability of GRACE to
measure interannual OBP variability on a global scale is unprecedented and has important implications for assessing deep
ocean heat content and
ocean dynamics.
For some inexplicable reason NOAA publish graphs of
ocean heat content (OHC) but not
ocean temperatures — the later are what the equipment
measures, and what we relate to.
Schwartz has a nice analysis of the energy balance Good, then you realize TSI is not a
measure of T «C * dT / dt = dH / dt = Q - E» and «Time constant τ varies linearly with
heat capacity» The longer cycles will mix more of the
ocean, thus larger
heat capacity and larger time constant.
The question is not whether the
oceans contain
heat because they indisputably do, it is whether the amount of
heat that they contain is changing, which is extremely hard to
measure.
-LSB-...] «These ARGO probes have
measured the
heating of the
oceans caused by that 93.5 per cent of the
heat energy reflected back down by the carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.
«the
heat is in
ocean but we can
measure it yet.»..