One of the reasons for
measuring voting intentions daily is to find these things out.
Not exact matches
They may account on some Trump supporters hiding their
vote intention because of peer pressure / embarrassment using historical data, but if peer pressure is higher in this election than in previous elections it is difficult to tune up that effect correctly (how can you
measure peer pressure to adjust your model before the election day?).
This
measure is worth looking at in more detail as
voting intention polls led many forecasters astray in 2015.
In doing so, we did find a statistically significant positive correlation between performance and
voting intention as
measured by Public Policy Polling data around the same time.
For all of these reasons, I believe that the percentage «satisfied» is a more direct
measure of
voting intention than either the index or the trend, and hence the best predictor of the outcome.
They have no
intention of marshaling
votes to get things done,» Klein told The Buffalo News, referring to the IDC's «Call the Roll» campaign that was designed to show that Democrats don't have all the
votes they need to pass a host of progressive
measures like the Gender Non-Discrimination Act and the DREAM Act.
The problem is that, as a traditional driver of
voting intention, constitutional reform ranks behind just about every other
measure you can think of - even more so in a recession.