The magenta line shows the 1981 to 2010
median extent for September.
Sea ice shows
the median extent for October 2016, the latest available.
The orange line shows the 1981 to 2010
median extent for March 7.
Not exact matches
There are many obvious reasons
for this: to the
extent that income is an important factor in determining political preferences, the
Median Voter Theorem predicts that voters in the middle of the income distribution will determine who wins elections.
As usual, I don't place too much emphasis on this sort of forecast, but to the
extent that I make any comments at all about the outlook
for 2006, the bottom line is this: 1) we can't rule out modest potential
for stock appreciation, which would require the maintenance or expansion of already high price / peak earnings multiples; 2) we also should recognize an uncomfortably large potential
for market losses, particularly given that the current bull market has now outlived the
median and average bull, yet at higher valuations than most bulls have achieved, a flat yield curve with rising interest rate pressures, an extended period of internal divergence as measured by breadth and other market action, and complacency at best and excessive bullishness at worst, as measured by various sentiment indicators; 3) there is a moderate but still not compelling risk of an oncoming recession, which would become more of a factor if we observe a substantial widening of credit spreads and weakness in the ISM Purchasing Managers Index in the months ahead, and; 4) there remains substantial potential
for U.S. dollar weakness coupled with «unexpectedly» persistent inflation pressures, particularly if we do observe economic weakness.
There was a USGS 2010 paper by D Douglas that predicted «
For the Bering Sea,
median March ice
extent is projected to be about 25 percent less than the 1979 — 1988 average by mid-century and 60 percent less by the end of the century» But if Bering ice is driven by the PDO I suspect that prediction will fail.
There was a USGS 2010 paper by D Douglas that predicted «
For the Bering Sea,
median March ice
extent is projected to be about 25 percent less than the 1979 — 1988 average by mid-century and 60 percent less by the end of the century» But if Bering ice is d»
The
median July Outlook
for September 2015 Arctic sea ice
extent is 5.0 million square kilometers (km2), which is the same as the June Outlook
median.
With 19 responses
for the Pan-Arctic Outlook (plus 6 regional Outlook contributions), the June Sea Ice Outlook projects a September 2012 arctic sea
extent median value of 4.4 million square kilometers, with quartiles of 4.3 and 4.7 million square kilometers (Figure 1).
The
median of predicted September
extents (all model contributions) is 5.08 million km2 (5.07 million km2
for the June Outlook).
With regard to the Outlook estimates
for the past two years, the
median values
for June outlooks
for sea ice
extent were within 0.1 million square kilometers (msk) of the observed values of 4.9 msk in 2010 and 4.6 msk in 2011.
With regard to the Outlook estimates
for the past three years, the
median values
for June outlooks
for sea ice
extent were within 0.1 million square kilometers (msk) of the observed values of 4.9 msk in 2010 and 4.6 msk in 2011, but the June Outlook value of 4.4 msk in 2012 was well above the extreme observed September value of 3.6 msk.
The yellow outline is the
median minimum sea ice
extent for 1979 — 2000; that is, areas that were at least 15 percent ice - covered in at least half the years between 1979 and 2000.
Sea ice
extent for 20 July 2010, relative to climatology (1979 — 2000
median) in orange.
With 19 responses
for the pan-arctic (and 7
for the regional outlook), including several new contributors, the June Sea Ice Outlook projects a September 2011 arctic sea
extent median value of 4.7 million square kilometers (Figure 1).
Sea ice
extent for the beginning of June 2010, relative to climatology (1979 — 2000
median) in orange.
Sea ice
extent for the beginning of June 2011, relative to climatology (1979 — 2000
median, denoted by the orange line).
Figure 1: This image compares the average sea ice
extent for September 2007 to September 2005; the magenta line indicates the long - term
median from 1979 to 2000.
The
median August Outlook
for September 2015 Arctic sea ice
extent is 4.8 million square kilometers km2 (Figure 1).
The projections of the Sea Ice Outlook groups
for the September 2008 mean minimum ice
extent, based on May data, had a
median value of 4.2 million square kilometers.
With observations from early summer, the projected
median ice
extent value increased to 4.9 million square kilometers
for the July Outlook.
The projections of the Sea Ice Outlook groups
for the September 2009 mean minimum ice
extent had a
median value of 4.7 million square kilometers based on May data and 4.6 million square kilometers based on June data with a range of 4.2 - 5.2 million square kilometers (Figure 1).
The
median predicted September sea ice
extent is 5.1 million km ² (4.8 and 4.7 million km ²
for July and June, respectively).
In summary, dynamical models predict a
median September
extent of 5.0 million km2 but with a large range in the estimates
for the September minimum (3.7 to 5.55 km2).
We received 21 Pan-Arctic responses
for the September 2013 Arctic mean sea ice
extent with a
median value of 4.0 million square kilometers and the quartile values are 3.8 and 4.6 million square kilometers (Figure 1).
The
median Outlook value
for September 2014 sea ice
extent is 4.7 million square kilometers with quartiles of 4.2 and 5.1 million square kilometers (See Figure 1).
The NSIDC sea ice
extent chart
for 5 July (Figure 2) shows less than
median sea ice
extents north of Alaska, in the Barents Sea, and in Baffin Bay.
In an effort to continue to make the Sea Ice Index a user friendly, go - to source
for sea ice information, NOAA@NSIDC has added the
median sea ice
extent line to... Read more»
If yes, and there is not an additional influx of warmer water coming in from the Bering Strait, then one can expect sea ice
extent to be above or at the
median for the Chukchi Sea and Bering Strait areas in the future.
This month the
median pan-Arctic
extent Outlook
for September 2016 sea ice
extent is 4.4 million square kilometers (km2) with quartiles of 4.2 and 4.7 million km2, which is slightly higher than July's value (4.3 million km2)(See Figure 1 in the full report, below).
The
median Outlook value
for September 2015 sea ice
extent is 5.0 million square kilometers with quartiles of 4.4 and 5.2 million square kilometers (See Figure 1 in the full report, below).
The
median Outlook
for September 2015 Arctic sea ice
extent is 5.0 million square kilometers (km2), which is the same as the June Outlook
median.