The orange line marks
the median extent of the ice from 1979 to 2000 as measured on September 9 of each of those years.
This is compared to the 13 statistical contributions that show a larger
median extent of 4.69 million square kilometers and range from 3.95 to 5.4 million square kilometers (quartiles of 4.23 and 4.81 million square kilometers).
Not exact matches
There are many obvious reasons for this: to the
extent that income is an important factor in determining political preferences, the
Median Voter Theorem predicts that voters in the middle
of the income distribution will determine who wins elections.
As usual, I don't place too much emphasis on this sort
of forecast, but to the
extent that I make any comments at all about the outlook for 2006, the bottom line is this: 1) we can't rule out modest potential for stock appreciation, which would require the maintenance or expansion
of already high price / peak earnings multiples; 2) we also should recognize an uncomfortably large potential for market losses, particularly given that the current bull market has now outlived the
median and average bull, yet at higher valuations than most bulls have achieved, a flat yield curve with rising interest rate pressures, an extended period
of internal divergence as measured by breadth and other market action, and complacency at best and excessive bullishness at worst, as measured by various sentiment indicators; 3) there is a moderate but still not compelling risk
of an oncoming recession, which would become more
of a factor if we observe a substantial widening
of credit spreads and weakness in the ISM Purchasing Managers Index in the months ahead, and; 4) there remains substantial potential for U.S. dollar weakness coupled with «unexpectedly» persistent inflation pressures, particularly if we do observe economic weakness.
As if the
extent of the issue mean,
median, and mode, or just tallying up numbers and doing some division.
In the 520 patients who had high -
extent disease (whose cancer had spread to major organs and / or the bones), treatment with ADT plus docetaxel had an even greater benefit: these men had a
median overall survival
of 49.2 months versus 32.2 in the ADT - only group — a difference
of 17 months.
The
median extent predicted by the models this year is 4.41 million square kilometers, which is slightly lower than last June's forecast
of 4.
There was a USGS 2010 paper by D Douglas that predicted «For the Bering Sea,
median March ice
extent is projected to be about 25 percent less than the 1979 — 1988 average by mid-century and 60 percent less by the end
of the century» But if Bering ice is driven by the PDO I suspect that prediction will fail.
There was a USGS 2010 paper by D Douglas that predicted «For the Bering Sea,
median March ice
extent is projected to be about 25 percent less than the 1979 — 1988 average by mid-century and 60 percent less by the end
of the century» But if Bering ice is d»
With 19 responses for the Pan-Arctic Outlook (plus 6 regional Outlook contributions), the June Sea Ice Outlook projects a September 2012 arctic sea
extent median value
of 4.4 million square kilometers, with quartiles
of 4.3 and 4.7 million square kilometers (Figure 1).
The
median of predicted September
extents (all model contributions) is 5.08 million km2 (5.07 million km2 for the June Outlook).
With regard to the Outlook estimates for the past two years, the
median values for June outlooks for sea ice
extent were within 0.1 million square kilometers (msk)
of the observed values
of 4.9 msk in 2010 and 4.6 msk in 2011.
With regard to the Outlook estimates for the past three years, the
median values for June outlooks for sea ice
extent were within 0.1 million square kilometers (msk)
of the observed values
of 4.9 msk in 2010 and 4.6 msk in 2011, but the June Outlook value
of 4.4 msk in 2012 was well above the extreme observed September value
of 3.6 msk.
We interpret the split
of 2013 Outlooks above and below the 4.1
median to different interpretations
of the guiding physics: those who considered that observed sea ice
extent in 2012 being well below the 4.1 level indicates a shift in arctic conditions, especially with regard to reduced sea ice thickness and increased sea ice mobility; and those with estimates above 4.1 who support a return to the longer - term downward trend line (1979 - 2007).
The predicted ensemble
median of September 2008 ice
extent is 5.1 million square kilometers.
With 19 responses for the pan-arctic (and 7 for the regional outlook), including several new contributors, the June Sea Ice Outlook projects a September 2011 arctic sea
extent median value
of 4.7 million square kilometers (Figure 1).
Sea ice
extent for the beginning
of June 2010, relative to climatology (1979 — 2000
median) in orange.
Sea ice
extent for the beginning
of June 2011, relative to climatology (1979 — 2000
median, denoted by the orange line).
The projections
of the Sea Ice Outlook groups for the September 2008 mean minimum ice
extent, based on May data, had a
median value
of 4.2 million square kilometers.
The projections
of the Sea Ice Outlook groups for the September 2009 mean minimum ice
extent had a
median value
of 4.7 million square kilometers based on May data and 4.6 million square kilometers based on June data with a range
of 4.2 - 5.2 million square kilometers (Figure 1).
NSIDC is transitioning the sea ice
extent time series graphs to show interquartile and interdecile ranges, with the
median extent value, in place
of standard deviations and the average values.
In summary, dynamical models predict a
median September
extent of 5.0 million km2 but with a large range in the estimates for the September minimum (3.7 to 5.55 km2).
We received 21 Pan-Arctic responses for the September 2013 Arctic mean sea ice
extent with a
median value
of 4.0 million square kilometers and the quartile values are 3.8 and 4.6 million square kilometers (Figure 1).
The
median Outlook value for September 2014 sea ice
extent is 4.7 million square kilometers with quartiles
of 4.2 and 5.1 million square kilometers (See Figure 1).
The NSIDC sea ice
extent chart for 5 July (Figure 2) shows less than
median sea ice
extents north
of Alaska, in the Barents Sea, and in Baffin Bay.
Still, the
extent of sea ice recorded in November was well shy
of the
median extent observed over the past quarter century, as the image from Nov. 14 (above, right) shows.
this seems to be the third time that we have warmer months near a conference although it might have been on different data sets.the sea ice
extent was headed back to
median a couple
of years ago and then was conveniently hijacked.
If yes, and there is not an additional influx
of warmer water coming in from the Bering Strait, then one can expect sea ice
extent to be above or at the
median for the Chukchi Sea and Bering Strait areas in the future.
This month the
median pan-Arctic
extent Outlook for September 2016 sea ice
extent is 4.4 million square kilometers (km2) with quartiles
of 4.2 and 4.7 million km2, which is slightly higher than July's value (4.3 million km2)(See Figure 1 in the full report, below).
The
median Outlook value for September 2015 sea ice
extent is 5.0 million square kilometers with quartiles
of 4.4 and 5.2 million square kilometers (See Figure 1 in the full report, below).
Figure 1:
Median and interquartile range
of July SIO predictions, compared with observed September mean sea ice
extent.
Figure 2:
Median and interquartile range
of NCAR and NSIDC pool predictions, compared with observed September mean or one - day minimum sea ice
extent.
All
of these loan limits are based on
median home prices, to some
extent.