Not exact matches
All things considered, the recent
stock price might present an opportunity
for patient investors, given the solid capital appreciation potential out to 2017 - 2019, versus the Value Line
median.
As usual, I don't place too much emphasis on this sort of forecast, but to the extent that I make any comments at all about the outlook
for 2006, the bottom line is this: 1) we can't rule out modest potential
for stock appreciation, which would require the maintenance or expansion of already high
price / peak earnings multiples; 2) we also should recognize an uncomfortably large potential
for market losses, particularly given that the current bull market has now outlived the
median and average bull, yet at higher valuations than most bulls have achieved, a flat yield curve with rising interest rate pressures, an extended period of internal divergence as measured by breadth and other market action, and complacency at best and excessive bullishness at worst, as measured by various sentiment indicators; 3) there is a moderate but still not compelling risk of an oncoming recession, which would become more of a factor if we observe a substantial widening of credit spreads and weakness in the ISM Purchasing Managers Index in the months ahead, and; 4) there remains substantial potential
for U.S. dollar weakness coupled with «unexpectedly» persistent inflation pressures, particularly if we do observe economic weakness.
The current valuation of the S&P 500 is lofty by almost any measure, both
for the aggregate market as well as the
median stock: (1) The P / E ratio; (2) the current P / E expansion cycle; (3) EV / Sales; (4) EV / EBITDA; (5) Free Cash Flow yield; (6)
Price / Book as well as the ROE and P / B relationship; and compared with the levels of (6) inflation; (7) nominal 10 - year Treasury yields; and (8) real interest rates.
To avoid overpaying
for trending companies,
stocks must be trading near or below their 10Y historical
median valuations (measured here by
Price to Sales,
Price to Earnings, and
Price to Book).
On the latter, the
median stock for the S&P 500 has NEVER been more overvalued on
price - to - earnings growth (PEG) nor Enterprise Value - to Sales.
In April, the Orlando Regional Realtor Association reported that
median prices for single - family homes were up by 11 % compared to April 2016, corresponding with decreases in sales and available housing
stock.
Data from Thomson One shows that out of the 14 analysts that cover Oshkosh, 8 have a «buy» or «strong buy»
for the
stock, with a mean
price target of $ 32.91 and a
median of $ 34.
The
median price - earnings ratio of the
stocks passing the ADR screen is 15.1, compared to 21.2
for all exchange - listed
stocks.
They found that that the
median stock in the S&P 500 trades in the 99th percentile of historical valuation
for forward
price - to - earnings (P / Es) ratios.
Low Quality's Round Trip Bad News Bulls
Stock Performance Following the Recognition of Recession The Beginning of the Middle Experimenting with the Market's
Median Valuation Anchored Inflation Expectations and the Expected Misery Index Consumer Spending Break - Down Recessions and the Duration of Bad News
Price - to - Sales Ratio May Prove Valuable International Markets Show Important Divergences Fixed Investment and the Technology Rally Global Yield Curves, Earnings Growth, and Sector Returns Recessions and
Stock Prices Adjusting P / E Ratios
for the Market Cycle Private Equity and Market Valuation Must
Stocks Rise Following a Cut in the Fed Funds Rate?
However, since all three screens look
for stocks with strong recent
price action, it is not surprising that the
median price - earnings ratios
for the Bargain screen (37.0) and Growth screen (108.0) are significantly higher than the
median price - earnings ratio
for exchange - listed
stocks (18.1).
When looking at the
price - to - book - value ratios
for the companies passing the Buffettology screens, you see that their
median values are significantly higher than the
median value
for exchange - listed
stocks.
The
price - earnings ratio (
price divided by trailing 12 - month earnings per share) of the O'Shaughnessy Small Cap Growth and Value screen is 22.6, roughly one - quarter greater than the
median value, 18.5,
for all the exchange - listed
stocks currently in the
Stock Investor Pro database, which we use to run and test these screens.
The
median price - earnings ratio of the
stocks passing all the filters is 11.5, slightly lower the 15.3 figure
for all
stocks.
The central bank said
price - to - earnings ratios on a forward - looking basis
for stocks have increased to a level «well above» their
median for the past 30 years.