Not exact matches
Sea levels could rise by 2.3
meters for each degree Celsius that global temperatures
increase and they will remain high for centuries to come, according to a new study by the leading climate research institute, released on Monday.
Here the best estimate is that
sea levels will rise by 0.68
meters, but there is a risk of
increases up to 1.6
meters.
The analysis showed that one
meter of
sea -
level rise
increased the tidal range by up to 20 percent in some areas.
Research shows that 5 % of the number of islands could be permanently inundated under an
increase of
sea level by 1
meter.
That estimate is an
increase from the estimated 0.9 to 2.7 feet (0.3 to 0.8
meters) that was predicted in the 2007 IPCC report for future
sea -
level rise.
Its effects were relatively modest: perhaps 1 Celsius degree of cooling (1.8 F), a fall in
sea level of approximately 30 centimeters (1 foot), and marginal
increases in
sea ice and terrestrial glaciers as well as descents in European montane «snow lines» of perhaps 100
meters.
Granted, it is «slow» right now, but the melting has been
increasing quite substantially, and whereas the IPCC had been speaking in the neighborhood of a
sea level increase of 50 cm, figures between one to two
meters are becoming common as the result of observed changes, and with the nonlinear processes and resulting positive feedback, Jim Hansen has suggested that a
sea level doubling per decade and
increase of several
meters (up to 5 m) by the end of the century is more realistic.
Granted, it is «slow» right now, but the melting has been
increasing quite substantially, and whereas the IPCC had been speaking in the neighborhood of a
sea level increase of 50 cm, figures between one to two
meters are becoming common as the result of the observed higher rates since, and with the nonlinear processes and resulting positive feedback, Jim Hansen has suggested that a
sea level doubling per decade and
increase of several
meters (up to 5 m) by the end of the century is more realistic.
This warming is causing an extraordinary
increase in the melting of glaciers and the Greenland Ice Sheet that led scientists earlier this year to project a
sea level rise of between 0.9 and 1.6
meters by the end of the century.
«This warming is causing the swift
increase in the melting of glaciers and the Greenland Ice Sheet that led scientists to project a
sea level rise of between 0.9 and 1.6
meters by the end of the century.
this represents a serious potential threat to humanity and our environment from anthropogenic global warming (AGW) in the range of 1.8 °C to 6.4 °C by the end of this century with
increase in global
sea level of up to 0.59
meters [AR4 WGI SPM, p. 13]
At the current rate of
sea level increase, a 1
meter rise is 300 years away: No tax.
Some studies have suggested that
sea levels during that time were several
meters higher than they are today; such an
increase in
sea levels would threaten, and could even inundate, coastal cities.
So David what are your reactions to article such as the one linked by Alex above discussing fears about Antarctica glaciers adding 10 feet to the Global
Sea Level when the IPCC AR5 WGI states explicitly that the current annual
increase in GMSL from Antarctica is 20 % of the thickness of a dime and that the IPCC forecast for 2100 is to have the Antarctic glaciers adding only.05
Meter to Global Mean
Sea Level.
The new work goes well beyond an increasingly dated consensus finding of the international scientific community on
sea level, which stated that it could
increase by nearly 1
meter by the year 2100, under a worst - case scenario version of global warming.
In addition to running climate models, the researchers compared modern warming to similar temperature
increases that happened approximately 120,000 years ago in a period known as the Eemian, when global
sea level was 5 to 9
meters (between 16 and 30 feet) higher than it is today due to the release of glacial water.
This period, known as the «last deglaciation,» included episodes of abrupt climate change, such as the Bølling warming [~ 14.7 — 14.5 ka], when Northern Hemisphere temperatures
increased by 4 — 5 °C in just a few decades [Lea et al., 2003; Buizert et al., 2014], coinciding with a 12 — 22 m
sea level rise in less than 340 years [5.3
meters per century](Meltwater Pulse 1a (MWP1a)-RRB-[Deschamps et al., 2012].»
How much of the warming since 1850 would have occurred anyway, due to the natural long term trend in place since 12,000 years ago — which caused 50
meters of
sea level increase, of which only 2 % is blamed on humans?
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change predicts almost a
meter rise in
sea level by the end of this century and warns of
increased storm surges.
A glacier the size of California in East Antarctica is in danger of melting away, which could lead to an extreme thaw
increases sea levels by about 11.5 feet (3.5
meters) worldwide if the glacier vanishes, a new study finds.
A jump of this kind was, however, predicted with
sea level rise by end of this Century expected to hit between 0.5 and 1
meters of
increase in the IPCC measure and between 5 and 6 feet in US Coast Guard studies (most studies find a range between 3 - 9 feet for this Century).
For example, a recent ice sheet model sensitivity study finds that incorporating the physical processes of hydrofracturing of ice and ice cliff failure
increases their calculated
sea level rise from 2
meters to 17
meters and reduces the potential time for West Antarctic collapse to decadal time scales.
A policymaker will take this as meaning that
sea level rise is probably going to be less than a
meter even if CO2
increases to 936 ppm, in other words, policymakers will take this «objective stuff» as serious, reliable estimates of what to expect.
If global temperatures
increase by two degrees then the closest period for comparison would be Pliocene, a time when
sea levels were an incredible 25
meters higher.
And there's a «probably low» but unknown risk that warmer rising
seas could undermine the ice sheet that covers western Antarctica, raising average
sea levels far more and more quickly than the roughly 1
meter (3 feet) they're now projected to
increase by 2100.
1995 discernible human influence on global climate 2001 surface temperature projected to
increase 1.4 - 5.8 C 1990 -2100, and
sea level to rise by 0.1 - 0.9
meters 2007 (Nobel peace prize) Climate warming unequivocal.
The impact of human - induced global warming on Earth's ice and oceans is already noticeable: Greenland's glaciers are melting at an
increasing rate, and
sea level rose by a little more than half a foot (0.17
meters) globally in the 20th century, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
Sea level increased about 115
meters over a several thousand year period, rising 40 mm / year (1.6 ″ / yr) during one 500 - year pulse of melting 14,600 years ago.
And it
increases the risk of truly catastrophic impacts, such as several
meters of
sea -
level rise.
«The
sea -
level rise may well exceed one
meter (3.28 feet) by 2100 if we continue on our path of
increasing emissions,» said Stefan Rahmstorf, professor at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research.
This massive stream of investment dollars is downright paradoxical considering the impending calamity that surrounds Southern Florida: The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicts that the
sea level could likely
increase almost 35 inches (0.89
meters) by mid-century.
D = 1/2 * a * t ** 2 + v0 * t + c, c = post 2000 change, v0 = current rate of
increase, a = required constant acceleration in
sea level rise to meet 1
meter target.
• Now, 600 million are living within 10
meters of
sea level, so any rise would
increase flooding and reduce freshwater availability.
The paper — which was co-authored with 16 other scientists — goes beyond IPCC estimates of future ice melt and
sea -
level rise, suggesting ocean
levels could rise several
meters if temperatures
increase by 2 degrees Celsius.
Even under this highly optimistic scenario we might see over half a
meter of
sea -
level rise, with serious impacts on many coastal areas, including coastal erosion and a greatly
increased risk of flooding.
Thirty million people in Bangladesh could be displaced by a 0.9 -
meter increase in
sea level, and the rising waters would most likely force the evacuation of 70 million Chinese.
Based on this historical record and the fact that the Laurentide melted away under summertime temperatures similar to those expected in Greenland by the end of this century, Carlson and his colleagues forecast glacial melting that contributes somewhere between 2.8 inches (seven centimeters) and 5.1 inches (13 centimeters) of
sea level rise per year, or as much as a 4.3 - foot (1.3 -
meter)
increase by 2100.
Climate change has already contributed about 8 inches (0.19
meters) to global
sea level rise, [10] and this has amplified the impact of cyclones by
increasing baseline elevations for waves and storm surge.
Multi-model averages show that the temperature
increases during 2090 - 2099 relative to 1980 - 1999 may range from 1.1 to 6.4 D and
sea level rise from 0.18 to 0.59
meters.