In fact, sea level rise is really a story of a constant 2 - 3
mm a year rise since about 1850 as the world warms from the little ice age.
He is Hanson's protege who started scare to increase NASA budget, and I am still waiting for Manhattan under water as he predicted despite two years of sea level fall despite centuries of a few
mm a year rise on average.
Not exact matches
Economic earnings
rose by $ 9.1
mm (506 % increase) while Net Income
rose by only $ 8.1
mm (79 % increase) during its last fiscal
year.
The 2001 IPCC report, in contrast, projected a best - estimate
rise of less than 2
mm per
year.
Parnell's team has been able to show that sea level
rise on the East Coast has been much less than 1 millimeter (
mm) per
year for the entire period 0 AD to 1800 AD, and, since then, it's skyrocketed.
The new model has recently been put to the test in New York City, where the rate of sea level
rise is more than 3
mm per
year in an area that currently houses more than $ 25 billion of infrastructure at less than 1 meter above sea level.
The subsidence means these areas are sinking even faster than sea level is
rising because of global warming: currently 3
mm per
year and accelerating.
Global sea level
rise is not cruising along at a steady 3
mm per
year, it's accelerating a little every
year, like a driver merging onto a highway, according to a powerful new assessment led by CIRES Fellow Steve Nerem.
Around 2000, sea level was
rising by about three
mm per
year.
The current rate of relative sea - level
rise (the combined effect of land subsidence and sea - level
rise) along parts of the coastal delta is nearly 8 to 9
mm per
year.
IPCC underestimation is even worse when it comes to sea levels, projecting a best - estimate
rise of less than 2
mm /
year.
Dr John Church of the Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research added: «The most recent research showed that sea level is
rising by 3
mm a
year since 1993, a rate well above the 20th century average.»
[12] The Himalayas» formation started about 70 million
years ago when the Indo - Australian Plate collided with the Eurasian Plate, and the Himalayas are still
rising by about 5
mm per
year because the Indo - Australian plate is still moving at 67
mm /
year.
«Global sea levels
rose about 2
mm per
year over the last century, but this rate increased to 3.4
mm / yr over the last decade.
Once melt passed 1
mm per
year, rapid collapse (within decades) occurred as the grounding line reached the deepest parts of the marine basin (for reference, total global sea level
rise today is ~ 3
mm per
year, so this is a significant contribution!).
The largest contibution to global sea level
rise from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets combined is around 16.9
mm per
year, but is more likely to be around 5.4
mm per
year by 2100.
That estimate was based in part on the fact that sea level is now
rising 3.2
mm / yr (3.2 m / millennium)[57], an order of magnitude faster than the rate during the prior several thousand
years, with rapid change of ice sheet mass balance over the past few decades [23] and Greenland and Antarctica now losing mass at accelerating rates [23]--[24].
On average, climate change is causing sea levels to
rise about 3
mm /
year, but zoom in any one location, and the rate might look very different.
The big surprise is that the rate of sea level
rise hasn't dropped since 2003, continuing at over 3
mm per
year.
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Why would it have such a funny shape, with the rate of
rise hovering around 2
mm /
year in mid-century before starting to increase again after 1980?
«These new results indicate that relative sea levels in New Zealand have been
rising at an average rate of 1.6
mm / yr over the last 100
years — a figure that is not only within the error bounds of the original determination, but when corrected for glacial - isostatic effects has a high level of coherency with other regional and global sea level
rise determinations.
For example, [Kruss 1983] has this to say about the Lewis glacier on Mt. Kenya: «A decrease in the annual precipitation on the order of 150
mm in the last quarter of the 19th century, followed by a secular air temperature
rise of a few tenths of a degree centigrade during the first half of the 20th century, together with associated albedo and cloudiness variation, constitute the most likely cause of the Lewis Glacier wastage during the last 100
years.»
As the ice melted, starting around 20 000
years ago, sea level
rose rapidly at average rates of about 10
mm per
year (1 m per century), and with peak rates of the order of 40
mm per
year (4 m per century), until about 6000
years ago.»
TK @ 85: Can anyone please explain to me what I'm missing because looking at satellite data from university of Colorado (http://sealevel.colorado.edu/) its obvious that the annual sea level
rise is contained at 3.3
mm /
year.
One of the SLR papers that is making the rounds is Unal and Ghil, 1995, which found sea level
rose an average of 1.62
mm / yr (+ or -.38) between 1807 and 1988 (averaged over 181
years.)
The overall pattern remains, though: about 1
mm /
year in the beginning of the century, around 1.5 — 2
mm /
year in the middle of the century,
rising to 3
mm / yr at the end of the century.
Can anyone please explain to me what I'm missing because looking at satellite data from university of Colorado (http://sealevel.colorado.edu/) its obvious that the annual sea level
rise is contained at 3.3
mm /
year.
SLR study... The study, by US scientists, has calculated the rate of global mean sea level
rise is not just going up at a steady rate of 3
mm a
year, but has been increasing by an additional 0.08
mm a
year, every
year since 1993.
If global surface temp goes up 1 degree, does the sea level
rise 3.4
mm per
year for ever?
Taking a step back, in my view the «big picture» on acceleration is that we have moved from a stable preindustrial sea level to one now
rising at 3
mm /
year (see Fig. 1 here).
> A new comment on the post # 74 «Michael Crichton's State of Confusion» is > waiting for your approval > > Author: Hans Erren -LRB--RRB- > E-mail: erren21 @... > URL: > Whois:... > Comment: > Sea - level
rise > > Although satellite data (TOPEX / POSEIDON (sic) and JASON) shows a much > steeper trend over recent
years (2.8
mm / yr) than the long term mean > estimates from tide gauges (1.7 to 2.4
mm / yr), each method compared to > itself does not indicate an accelleration.
While the overall opinion of the panel was that WAIS most likely will not collapse in the next few centuries, their uncertainty retains a 5 % probability of WAIS causing sea level
rise at least 10
mm /
year within 200
years.»
From Donald Blanchard's the ABC's of Plate Tectonics I see that Scandinavia is currently
rising at 90 cm per century and the average it has
risen over the last 8000
years is 68
mm per
year.
Less certain is the time scale, with the onset of rapid (> 1
mm per
year of sea - level
rise) collapse in the different simulations within the range of 200 to 900
years.
-- Sea level has been
rising at 1
mm to 3
mm every since the large continental glaciers melted after the last ice age — ie for the last 9,000
years.
Greenland has contributed +0.14 to +0.28
mm /
year of sea level
rise over this period, while for Antarctica the uncertainty range is -0.14 to +0.55
mm /
year.
-- Sea level continued to
rise: Global mean sea level continued to
rise during 2013, on pace with a trend of 3.2 ± 0.4
mm per
year over the past two decades.
The current rate of sea level
rise is 2.4
mm /
year, which is less than one foot per century.
From what I can gather 80m is all ice melted, and that will happen as an S curve where we are currently at 4
mm per
year cf 2
mm per
year rise just a wee while ago.
But again the «models» estimate includes an observed ice sheet mass loss term of 0.41
mm /
year whereas ice sheet models give a mass gain of 0.1
mm /
year for this period; considering this, observed
rise is again 50 % faster than the best model estimate for this period.
The comparison looks somewhat better for the period 1993 - 2003, where the «models» give a
rise of 2.6
mm /
year while the data give 3.1
mm /
year.
For 2001 - 2004, the figure
rose to 0.8 - 1
mm each
year.
Sea level has been
rising for 9,000
years at the rate of 1 - 3
mm / yr?
Between 2011 and 2013, SLR was
rising at ~ 7
mm per
year.
You really need to look at multi-decadal time periods to determine trends, as in Church and White 2011 who found «1900 to 2009 is 1.7 ± 0.2
mm /
year and since 1961 is 1.9 ± 0.4
mm /
year» and «For 1993 — 2009 and after correcting for glacial isostatic adjustment, the estimated rate of
rise is 3.2 ± 0.4
mm /
year from the satellite data and 2.8 ± 0.8
mm /
year from the in situ data».
A study in Nature Climate Change has just confirmed that the seas that in the last century were
rising by on average 2.2
mm a
year are now
rising by 3.3
mm a
year.
has just confirmed that the seas that in the last century were
rising by on average 2.2
mm a
year are now
rising by 3.3
mm a
year.
As can be seen, there are considerable fluctuations in the rate of SL
rise: the decadal average rate fluctuates from -1
mm /
year to +5
mm /
year, with a 20thC average of +1.74
mm /
year.
If the melting rate continues to stay within those two points, and given that the current contribution to sea level from the Greenland Ice Sheet is only about 0.1
mm /
year, we won't see a lot of sea level
rise until later this century.