(A) Histogram of the frequency of occurrence of consecutive August — July 12 - mo periods in which the 12 -
mo precipitation anomaly is less than — 0.5 SDs and the 12 - mo temperature anomaly is at least 0.5 SDs, in historical observations and the LENS large ensemble experiment.
This increase implies a transition to a permanent condition of ∼ 100 % risk that any negative — or extremely negative — 12 -
mo precipitation anomaly is also extremely warm.
Not exact matches
(D) The unconditional probability of a — 1.5 SD seasonal
precipitation anomaly (blue curve) and the conditional probability that a — 1.5 SD seasonal
precipitation anomaly occurs in conjunction with a 1.5 SD seasonal temperature
anomaly (red curve), for each of the four 3 -
mo seasons.
(C) The probability that a negative
precipitation anomaly and a positive temperature
anomaly equal to or exceeding a given magnitude occur in the same 12 -
mo period, for all possible 12 -
mo periods (using a 12 -
mo running mean; see Materials and Methods), for varying severity of
anomalies.
All 20 August — July 12 -
mo periods that exhibited a — 1.0 SD PMDI
anomaly also exhibited a — 0.5 SD
precipitation anomaly (Fig. 1B and 2E), suggesting that moderately low
precipitation is prerequisite for a 1 - SD drought year.