Sentences with phrase «mode of variability on»

The leading mode explains 45 % of the SLP trend variance and resembles the NAO, reinforcing the notion that the NAO is not only a dominant mode of variability on interannual time scales, but also on multi-decadal time scales (Fig. 2a).

Not exact matches

Since we're still learning about the extent of the microbiome, the variability of its contents depending on the individual, their diet, their location, and other factors, and how altering it in one manner may or may not have a predictable impact, it is far too soon to begin to make specific claims concerning the life - long health consequences attached to a particular mode of birth.

On this latter scale teleconnections manifest as a response of middle - latitude weather to the dominant modes of variability of the tropics (the Madden - Julian Oscillation and the Boreal Summer Intra-seasonal Oscillations, which similar to El Niño and La Niña characterize variations of climate but on shorter time scalesOn this latter scale teleconnections manifest as a response of middle - latitude weather to the dominant modes of variability of the tropics (the Madden - Julian Oscillation and the Boreal Summer Intra-seasonal Oscillations, which similar to El Niño and La Niña characterize variations of climate but on shorter time scaleson shorter time scales).

The dominant mode of global - scale variability on interannual time scales is ENSO, although there have been times when it is less apparent.

In addition, climate models and observations suggest that there may be modes of variability which act on multi-decadal timescales, although understanding of such modes is currently limited3.

... On decadal to multidecadal timescales, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, and the Atlantic tripole mode determine the variability of rainfall over India (Sen Roy et al., 2003; Lu et al., 2006; Zhang and Delworth, 2006; Li et al., 2008; Sen Roy, 2011; Krishnamurthy and Krishnamurthy, 2014a, 2014b, 2016b).

Patterns of variability that don't match the predicted fingerprints from the examined drivers (the «residuals») can be large — especially on short - time scales, and look in most cases like the modes of internal variability that we've been used to; ENSO / PDO, the North Atlantic multidecadal oscillation etc..

But, on the basis of studies of nonlinear chaotic models with preferred states or «regimes», it has been argued, that the spatial patterns of the response to anthropogenic forcing may in fact project principally onto modes of natural climate variability.

Ironically, while some continue to attack this nearly decade - old work, the actual scientific community has moved well beyond the earlier studies, focusing now on the detailed patterns of modeled and reconstructed climate changes in past centuries, and insights into the roles of external forcing and internal modes of variability (such as the North Atlantic Oscillation or «NAO» and the «El Nino / Southern Oscillation» or «ENSO») in explaining this past variability.

Their correlations are based on a dynamic mode of variability (the Madden - Julian Oscillation) which has nothing to do with any SST forced response in the clouds.

It seemed to us that the impact would be on the «normal modes» of natural variability.

An increasing number of Holocene proxy records are of sufficiently high resolution to describe the climate variability on centennial to millennial time scales, and to identify possible natural quasi-periodic modes of climate variability at these time scales (Haug et al., 2001; Gupta et al., 2003).

The ENSO is the dominant mode of global - scale variability on interannual time scales although there have been times when it is less apparent.

1) The MJO: as the dominant mode of intraseasonal variability in the tropics that couples with organized convective activity, the MJO has a considerable impact not only in the tropics, but also in the middle and high latitudes, and is considered as a major source of global predictability on the subseasonal time scale;

«One of the major modes of climate variability is El Niño and when we're in El Niño there's a large area of warm sea surface temps in the Pacific,» this leads to more precipitation on the West Coast, Crouch said.

Part of this is a resolution issue, but the more important issue is the modes of natural internal variability, which the climate models do a so - so job on in a large - scale sense, but not in translating the impacts to a regional level.

(Note: the biggest issue is climate sensitivity, with a secondary issue being the magnitude of modes of natural internal variability on multi-decadal time scales, and tertiary issues associated model inadequacies in dealing with aerosol - cloud processes and solar indirect effects.)

As of this writing, there is observational and modeling evidence that: 1) both annular modes are sensitive to month - to - month and year - to - year variability in the stratospheric flow (see section on Stratosphere / troposphere coupling, below); 2) both annular modes have exhibited long term trends which may reflect the impact of stratospheric ozone depletion and / or increased greenhouse gases (see section on Climate Change, below); and 3) the NAM responds to changes in the distribution of sea - ice over the North Atlantic sector.

The influence of large - scale climate modes of variability (the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-RRB- on APF magnitude is also assessed, and placed in context with these more localized controls.

«A climate pattern may come in the form of a regular cycle, like the diurnal cycle or the seasonal cycle; a quasi periodic event, like El Niño; or a highly irregular event, such as a volcanic winter... A mode of variability is a climate pattern with identifiable characteristics, specific regional effects, and often oscillatory behavior... the mode of variability with the greatest effect on climates worldwide is the seasonal cycle, followed by El Niño - Southern Oscillation, followed by thermohaline circulation.»

We welcome model or observational studies on changes in climate feedback strength or the emergence of new feedbacks; changes in modes of variability; new climate nonlinearities; fundamental climate zone shifts; and qualitatively new impacts on to life emerging in hot or cold climates.

This study has highlighted the role of internal variability of the NAO, the leading mode of atmospheric circulation variability over the Atlantic / European sector, on winter (December - March) surface air temperature (SAT) and precipitation (P) trends over the next 30 years (and the next 50 years: see Supplemental Materials) using a new 40 - member ensemble of climate change simulations with CESM1.

«The authors write that North Pacific Decadal Variability (NPDV) «is a key component in predictability studies of both regional and global climate change,»... they emphasize that given the links between both the PDO and the NPGO with global climate, the accurate characterization and the degree of predictability of these two modes in coupled climate models is an important «open question in climate dynamics» that needs to be addressed... report that model - derived «temporal and spatial statistics of the North Pacific Ocean modes exhibit significant discrepancies from observations in their twentieth - century climate... conclude that «for implications on future climate change, the coupled climate models show no consensus on projected future changes in frequency of either the first or second leading pattern of North Pacific SST anomalies,» and they say that «the lack of a consensus in changes in either mode also affects confidence in projected changes in the overlying atmospheric circulation.»»

Decadal variations in the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation are characterized by a pattern of sea surface temperature anomalies that resemble the central Pacific El Niño, a dominant mode of interannual variability with far - reaching effects on global climate patterns5, 6, 7.

The model is actually based on ocean and atmospheric indices — in this case the El Niño Southern Oscillation, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation and the North Pacific Oscillation — and can be thought of as chaotic oscillators that capture the major modes of climate variability.

These major modes of climate variability — «oscillating» ocean and atmospheric states — can be represented as oscillating nodes on the climate network.

Over these shorter periods, there are many modes of climate variability, usually involving semi-structured oscillations in sea surface temperatures, like the El Niño - Southern Oscillation, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, the Arctic Oscillation, and so on.

But this raises the interesting question, is there something going on here w / the energy & radiation budget which is inconsistent with the modes of internal variability that leads to similar temporary cooling periods within the models.

Gradual anthropogenic forcing is expected, on theoretical grounds, to interact with natural modes of climate variability by altering the relative amount of time that the climate system spends in different states (52).

In view of the multiple modes and periods of internal variability in the ocean, it is likely that we have not detected the full scale of internal variability effects on regional and global sea level change.

Modes or patterns of climate variability - Natural variability of the climate system, in particular on seasonal and longer time scales, predominantly occurs with preferred spatial patterns and time scales, through the dynamical characteristics of the atmospheric circulation and through interactions with the land and ocean surfaces.

The first is based on extrapolating seasonal and interannual changes based on precise knowledge of today's state of the atmosphere and ocean combined with an understanding of how the various modes of variability in the ocean might develop.

And finally, attribution studies can't simply rely on model simulations, since model simulations (even if they capture the correct spectrum of variability) won't match the observed realization of the multidecadal modes in terms of timing.

If it's a mode of variability that averages to zero in the long run, then it will alternatively increase and decrease the rate of warming and my have little impact on the temperature around the turn of the next century.