Sentences with phrase «model and observations over»

Of the diagrams, I like Ed Hawkins diagram the best: it does a good job of lining up the climate models and observations in a sensible way from 1960 - 1990, so as to show the growing discrepancy between models and observations over the last decade.

Not exact matches

The strongest research methods for psychological studies are: qualitative findings versus quantitative; experimental rather than descriptive or correlational; controlled - experiment, meta - analysis, and observation designs over archival, case study, computational modeling, content analysis, field experiment, interview, neuroimaging, quasi experiment, self - report inventory, random sample survey, or twin study; and prospective (where subjects are recruited prior to the proposed independent effects being administered) and longitudinal (where subjects are studied at multiple time points) rather than retrospective or cross-section study.

Computer modeling and satellite observations suggest that these tiny particles can increase storm - cloud cover over certain regions of the North Pacific by 20 to 50 percent, enough to alter storm tracks in some cases.

Medvigy and Jeong found that prediction modeling for the entire United States indeed improves dramatically when the analyses include data from macro-scale observations, meaning from multiple sites spread over a large area.

Under the assumptions of their model, the team quantified the dynamics all over the exposed ocular surface, and the results agreed well with in vivo observations of the tear film gained from fluorescence imaging.

Working with the University of New South Wales, scientists have developed a computer model which uses past wave observations and beach assessments to forecast the erosion and / or accretion of beach sediments over the coming year.

A few of the main points of the third assessment report issued in 2001 include: An increasing body of observations gives a collective picture of a warming world and other changes in the climate system; emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosols due to human activities continue to alter the atmosphere in ways that are expected to affect the climate; confidence in the ability of models to project future climate has increased; and there is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities.

EWeLiNE combines these data with other atmospheric observations — from ground - based weather stations, radar and satellites — and sophisticated computer models predict power generation over the next 48 hours or so.

There are some caveats with their study: The global climate models (GCMs) do not reproduce the 1930 - 1940 Arctic warm event very well, and the geographical differences in a limited number of grid - boxes in the observations and the GCMs may have been erased through taking the average value over the 90 - degree sectors.

FMI has been involved in research project, which evaluated the simulations of long - range transport of BB aerosol by the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS - 5) and four other global aerosol models over the complete South African - Atlantic region using Cloud - Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) observations to find any distinguishing or common model biases.

This involves a combination of satellite observations (when different satellites captured temperatures in both morning and evening), the use of climate models to estimate how temperatures change in the atmosphere over the course of the day, and using reanalysis data that incorporates readings from surface observations, weather balloons and other instruments.

Rather than use a model - based estimate, as did Hansen (2005) and Trenberth (2009), the authors achieve this by calculating it from observations of ocean heat content (down to 1800 metres) from the PMEL / JPL / JIMAR data sets over the period July 2005 to June 2010 - a time period dominated by the superior ARGO - based system.

In fact, the calculation has been done very carefully by Hansen and co-workers, taking all factors into consideration, and when compared with observations of ocean heat storage over a period long enough for the observed changes to be reliably assessed, models and observations agree extremely well (see this article and this article.).

Over the last five years, the BAMS report has examined more than 100 events as part of a burgeoning sub-field of climate science that uses observations and climate models to show how human - caused warming has already affected the odds or severity of many of the weather extremes we experience now.

Over five days, the conference will offer a fruitful meeting of observers involved in various ground - and space - based programs with modelers and theoreticians, in order to raise new observations and new models to improve our comprehension and knowledges of exoplanets.

Based on our model, and our observations near greenhouses, it is probable that destructive pathogens have been spilling over into wild bee populations since the collapse of commercial B. occidentalis during the late 1990s, and this has contributed to the ongoing collapse of wild Bombus sensu stricto.

The photodetector array camera and spectrometer (PACS) aboard the Herschel Space Observatory allows imaging observations in the far infrared at unprecedented resolution, i.e. at better than 6» to 12» over the wavelength range of 60 -LCB- \ mu -RCB- m to 210 -LCB- \ mu -RCB- m. Together with the results from ground - based observations, these spatially resolved data can be modelled to determine the nature of the debris and its evolution more reliably than would be possible from unresolved data alone.

They used a combination of field observations and data from local weather stations to test a model of glacier change over the past 50 years.

The statistics of the weather make short term climate prediction very difficult — particularly for climate models that are not run with any kind of initialization for observations — this has been said over and over.

In Gersten and Kelly (1992), «limited» modeling by the teacher leader accompanied classroom observations and feedback to the teacher over a six - week period.

The coaching model demands shorter, more frequent observations and a focus on tracking growth over time.

Using a unique identification strategy that employs grade - level turnover and two classes of fixed - effects models, this study estimates the effects of teacher turnover on over 850,000 New York City 4th and 5th grade student observations over eight years.

The bottom line is that while there is remaining uncertainty in the tropical trends over the last 30 years, there is no clear discrepancy between what the models expect and the observations.

There are some caveats with their study: The global climate models (GCMs) do not reproduce the 1930 - 1940 Arctic warm event very well, and the geographical differences in a limited number of grid - boxes in the observations and the GCMs may have been erased through taking the average value over the 90 - degree sectors.

... a pronounced strengthening in Pacific trade winds over the past two decades — unprecedented in observations / reanalysis data and not captured by climate models — is sufficient to account for the cooling of the tropical Pacific and a substantial slowdown in surface warming through increased subsurface ocean heat uptake.

This is something seen in many observations and over many timescales, and is not something to climate models.

Abstract:... Here we show that a pronounced strengthening in Pacific trade winds over the past two decades — unprecedented in observations / reanalysis data and not captured by climate models — is sufficient to account for the cooling of the tropical Pacific and a substantial slowdown in surface warming through increased subsurface ocean heat uptake.

This is odd, not because it's not true (and is the principle reason why the attribution of more intense hurricanes to GW is not yet set in stone), but because Landsea has previously been much more of a champion of favoring observations over modelling.

Given some good observations and a suitable model one could hope to do so for a brief distance, but inevitably chaos would take over and we would fail to predict the exact point where the bubble would surface.

The constraining of the atmospheric model affect the predictions where there are no observations because most of the weather elements — except for precipitation — do not change abruptly over short distance (mathematically, we say that they are described by «spatially smooth and slowly changing functions»).

An important point with reanalyses, is that the model used doesn't change over the time spanned by the analysis, but reanalyses are generally used with caution for climate change studies because the number and type of observations being fed into the computer model changes over time.

There is one major caveat with these products though, and that is that while the model isn't changing over time, the input data is and there are large variations in the amount and quality of observations — particularly around 1979 when a lot of satellite observations came on line, but also later as the mix and quality of data has changed.

See Stowasser & Hamilton, Relationship between Shortwave Cloud Radiative Forcing and Local Meteorological Variables Compared in Observations and Several Global Climate Models, Journal of Climate 2006; Lauer et al., The Impact of Global Warming on Marine Boundary Layer Clouds over the Eastern Pacific — A Regional Model Study, Journal of Climate 2010.

Data manipulation to support favored models of reality over experimental observations of reality were in fact routine in the period between the end of the Second World War and the release of Climategate emails and documents (1945 - 2009).

This Nature Climate Change paper concluded, based purely on simulations by the GISS - E2 - R climate model, that estimates of the transient climate response (TCR) and equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) based on observations over the historical period (~ 1850 to recent times) were biased low.

These models have correctly predicted effects subsequently confirmed by observation, including greater warming in the Arctic and over land, greater warming at night, and stratospheric cooling.

The GRACE observations over Antarctica suggest a near - zero change due to combined ice and solid earth mass redistribution; the magnitude of our GIA correction is substantially smaller than previous models have suggested and hence we produce a systematically lower estimate of ice mass change from GRACE data: we estimate that Antarctica has lost 69 ± 18 Gigatonnes per year (Gt / yr) into the oceans over 2002 - 2010 — equivalent to +0.19 mm / yr globally - averaged sea level change, or about 6 % of the sea - level change during that period.

In equivalent in science is the conflicts over viewpoints, policies etc. built on top of the underlying scientific observations and models.

However, models would need to underestimate variability by factors of over two in their standard deviation to nullify detection of greenhouse gases in near - surface temperature data (Tett et al., 2002), which appears unlikely given the quality of agreement between models and observations at global and continental scales (Figures 9.7 and 9.8) and agreement with inferences on temperature variability from NH temperature reconstructions of the last millennium.

So what we did with the model is: stretch the input of the carbon over longer and longer periods of time until we get a match between the observations and the carbon cycle and climate models.

Huh, dirty pool like the way increasing confidence has been decidedly promoted over, lets say, the increasing divergence between observation and model prediction?

To that end, an NSF - funded $ 21 million initiative called Southern Ocean Carbon and Climate Observations and Modeling (SOCCOM) run by Princeton University, and including Climate Central, MBARI, Scripps, University of Washington, University of Arizona and others, was launched in 2014 with the goal of deploying over a six - year period a fleet of autonomous, robotic floats, capable of observing the Southern Ocean (for the first time) year - round and across the entire expanse.

These observations, together with computer model simulations and historical climate reconstructions from ice cores, ocean sediments and tree rings all provide strong evidence that the majority of the warming over the past century is a result of human activities.

There's a lot in there, but, the authors write, the compilation of peer - reviewed scientific observations and models together «tell an unambiguous story: the planet is warming, and over the last half century, this warming has been driven primarily by human activity.»

Using data from 9,000 observations collected over the course of the 11 trials and 30 years, the researchers developed a model to simulate how rises in temperature could affect sorghum yields.

The true difference between the models and observations is somewhat masked because Figure 9.3 recentres each plot to its own average value over the period.

Overall, this results in an impressively small model spread around observations over the historical record and a relatively constrained spread for each of the individual future projections.

California's coastal observations and global model projections indicate that California's open coast and estuaries will experience rising sea levels over the next century.

To investigate the relationship between SL and BP on climate scales, we considered interannual time series from satellite observations and a general circulation model ranging over 2005 - 2010 and smoothed over scales of 750 km.

It's been fascinating over my career to look at ever - better satellite observations and ever - better model simulations and see that fingerprint pattern of human effects literally emerging from the noise.