That's clear from recent peer - reviewed reports such as Marvel et al 2016: Implications for climate sensitivity from the response to individual forcings, and Sherwood et al. 2014: Spread in
model climate sensitivity traced to atmospheric convective mixing.
The evident relationship between effective climate sensitivity and ocean heat uptake leads to the transient climate response (TCR) having a smaller spread among the model results than the climate
models climate sensitivity alone would suggest (see Section 9.3.1).
-LSB-...] Study paper Spread
in model climate sensitivity traced to atmospheric convective mixing Climate Sensitivity in the Anthropocene «Worst» of Climate Predictions Are the Most Likely: New -LSB-...]
Hopefully, more refined work with recent and future data, and incorporation of research into the coupling mechanisms themselves, will allow us to validate
the model climate sensitivities to the various forcings, and confidently reproduce multidecadal internal climate modes.
Although the strength of this feedback varies somewhat among models, its overall impact on the spread of
model climate sensitivities is reduced by lapse rate feedback, which tends to be anti-correlated.
The aim of this study is to investigate the impact of small - scale atmospheric fluctuations on
the modeled climate sensitivity to increased CO2 concentration.
Well, exactly this assumption, that
the model climate sensitivity is about 3.5 °C, has been seriously challenged in the past few years in the scientific literature.
In CMIP5 there is no correlation between aerosol forcing and sensitivity across the ensemble, so the implication that aerosol forcing affects the climate sensitivity in such «forward» calculations is false... The spread of
model climate sensitivities is completely independent of historical simulations.»
There is very high confidence that uncertainties in cloud processes explain much of the spread in
modelled climate sensitivity.
I wonder if the method gives consistent results with
the model climate sensitivities.
Uncertainty in
model climate sensitivity traced to representations of cumulus precipitation microphysics.
Spread in
model climate sensitivity traced to atmospheric convective mixing.
Sherwood, S.C., S. Bony and J.L Dufresne, 2014: Spread in
model climate sensitivity traced to atmospheric convective mixing.