Sentences with phrase «model ensemble shows»

El Niño forecast, IRI ensemble: leading climate models show El Niño during summer 2014 Compared to last month's forecast the IRI climate model ensemble shows a somewhat faster development of a positive ENSO state and clear indications of El Niño... Continue reading →

Surely we might be just as justified in subtracting 10000 km ^ 3 from the model ensemble shown in fig 4.

Not exact matches

Model Doutzen Kroes walks the runway sporting a red ensemble during the 2011 Victoria's Secret Fashion Show at the Lexington Avenue Armory on Nov. 9, 2011, in New York.

Through an ensemble modeling approach, we were able to show that without anthropogenic effects, the droughts in the southwestern United States would have been less severe,» says co-author Axel Timmermann, Director of the newly founded IBS Center for Climate Physics, within the Institute for Basics Science (IBS), and Distinguished Professor at Pusan National University in South Korea.

We previously showed that a simple linear ensemble - coding model of the SC motor map could fully account for the nonlinear properties of saccades [33].

So while Manish's show saw bird installations and gentle chirping as the background score setting pace for a gorgeous collection of ensembles raging from capes to jumpsuits to skirts and elaborate lehengas, we saw Dhruv Kapoor showcasing his resort wear by the poolside with models sashaying around in boxy dresses, crop tops, cold shoulders and obi belts.

We are in the process of downscaling individual global model projections, and preliminary results (as mentioned briefly in the paper) show substantial departures from the result using the ensemble mean.

Connolley and Bracegirdle (2007) show that expected trends in a much larger sample of models are very varied (though the ensemble mean warms at about the rate seen in the Steig et al paper).

He claims that this can be corrected for, but he still isn't using the proper null — in M&N they show the results from the ensemble means (of the GISS model and the full AR4 model set), but seem to be completely ignorant of the fact that ensemble mean results remove the spatial variations associated with internal variability which should be the exact thing you would use!

I did so, and in so doing pointed out a number of problems in the M&N paper (comparing the ensemble mean of the GCM simulations with a single realisation from the real world, and ignoring the fact that the single GCM realisations showed very similar levels of «contamination», misunderstandings of the relationships between model versions, continued use of a flawed experimental design etc.).

Figure 5 Comparison of the three measured data sets shown at the outset with earlier IPCC projections from the first (FAR), 2nd (SAR) 3rd (TAR) and 4th (AR4) IPCC report, as well as with the CMIP3 model ensemble.

There is one model that has two out of three showing significant weakening, and two that show one out of two members with weakening, but I'm not sure how much credence to put on such small ensembles.

To illustrate this point, the following graph shows one simulation from the CMIP3 model ensemble:

The following graph shows a comparison of observational data with the CMIP5 ensemble of model experiments that have been made for the current IPCC report.

With regards the Arctic: As Gillett et al and Johanessen et al show — in models without the anthropogenic increase of greenhouse gasses the Arctic warming does not occur, add the GHG effect and the warming occurs in all ensembles.

1) Regarding the 1970s shift, Ray mentions that: «It's not evident why the smooth trend in 20th century climate forcing should give rise to such an abrupt shift, and indeed the individual members of the model ensemble do not show a clearly analogous shift.»

It's not evident why the smooth trend in 20th century climate forcing should give rise to such an abrupt shift, and indeed the individual members of the model ensemble do not show a clearly analogous shift.

Based on results from large ensemble simulations with the Community Earth System Model, we show that internal variability alone leads to a prediction uncertainty of about two decades, while scenario uncertainty between the strong (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5) and medium (RCP4.5) forcing scenarios [possible paths for greenhouse gas emissions] adds at least another 5 years.

The ensemble prediction from the PIOMAS model submitted by Zhang and Lindsay is in agreement and shows a mostly open Northwest Passage (Figure 2a).

More complex metrics have also been developed based on multiple observables in present day climate, and have been shown to have the potential to narrow the uncertainty in climate sensitivity across a given model ensemble (Murphy et al., 2004; Piani et al., 2005).

Knutti et al. (2006), using a different, perturbed physics ensemble, showed that models with a strong seasonal cycle in surface temperature tended to have larger climate sensitivity.

Ensemble simulations conducted with EMICs (Renssen et al., 2002; Bauer et al., 2004) and coupled ocean - atmosphere GCMs (Alley and Agustsdottir, 2005; LeGrande et al., 2006) with different boundary conditions and freshwater forcings show that climate models are capable of simulating the broad features of the observed 8.2 ka event (including shifts in the ITCZ).

Collins Figure 3 shows physical uncertainty as model variability about an ensemble mean.

The ensemble prediction from the PIOMAS model submitted by Zhang and Lindsay shows a mostly open Northwest Passage (Figure 2a).

Natural variability from the ensemble of 587 21 - year - long segments of control simulations (with constant external forcings) from 24 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) climate models is shown in black and gray.

Unlike the ENSO and IOD SST forecasts, the seasonal outlooks are based on the last three weeks of forecasts, i.e. five separate model runs combining to make a 165 - member ensemble, as this was shown to give higher skill.

The impact of sea surface temperature bias was further investigated by using uncoupled atmospheric models with prescribed sea surface temperatures, and those 3 models each with differing complexity showed less severe double ITCZ bias than the ensemble of coupled models.

Through an ensemble modelling approach, we were able to show that without anthropogenic effects, the droughts in the southwestern United States would have been less severe,» said Axel Timmermann, who directs a centre for climate physics at Pusan National University in South Korea.

(The red line shows the histogram of the rank of the observed trend at each grid point, within the CMIP5 ensemble spread - ideally, it would be flat, and the slope up to the left means that there are relatively more obs in the low end of the model range than at the top end.)

At the end is like pretending you can detect a milligram change in weight using a balance with a precision of one kg, you only need to use many balances, model the measurements for a hundred years and show a mean ensemble of the results without error bars and a very obtuse wording.

The forcings and model simulations of the future are together called the CMIP5 ensemble and are what is shown in Figure 1a and b.

Koutsoyiannis (2011) showed that «an ensemble of climate model projections» of (realistic) global climate models are statistically likely to be within this climatic null hypothesis.

Koutsoyiannis (2011) showed that an ensemble of climate model projections is fully contained WITHIN the uncertainty envelope of traditional stochastic methods using historical data, including the Hurst phenomena... the Hurst phenomena (1951) describes the large and long excursions of natural events above and below their mean, as opposed to random processes which do not exhibit such behavior.

To buttress this point, recent work by Mike Mann and colleagues has shown that warming during the most recent decade is well within the spread of a model ensemble.

This graphic shows the three scenarios along with the ensemble model mean during 1951 - 2030.

At the pan-arctic level, the two coupled ice - ocean model ensemble simulations (Kauker, Zhang) show good agreement, in particular regarding ice conditions in the East Siberian Sea.

A new ensemble prediction from an ice - ocean model was submitted by Zhang for the July outlook and the new sea ice thickness map for September 2010 still shows ice remaining in Lancaster Sound.

In an ensemble prediction from an ice - ocean model, Zhang shows ice remaining in the Eastern Parry Channel in September (Figure 10).

The pan-arctic ensemble runs with a coupled ice - ocean model by Kauker et al. also indicate a distinct ice thickness anomaly in the East Siberian Sea, where thicknesses at the end of June 2010 are shown to be higher by a factor of roughly two as compared to the previous three years.

In contrast, the updated ensemble forecast from a coupled ice - ocean model submitted by Zhang (Figure 3) still shows the September ice edge further north than in 2009.

This is consistent with both the June and July (Figure 3) ensemble predictions from a coupled ice - ocean model submitted by Zhang, which show considerably more ice in the East Siberian Sea compared to 2009, and it is consistent with the June statistical forecasts submitted by Tivy, which also predict a greater ice area than in 2009 and above - normal ice concentrations along the coasts.

The black line shows observed rainfall, the thick blue line shows the model ensemble mean for the 20th century and the thin lines show each of the six CM2 projections of Sahel rainfall for the 21st century and beyond.

The ensemble prediction from a coupled ice - ocean model submitted by Zhang shows considerably more ice in the East Siberian Sea compared to 2009.

The ensemble prediction from the PIOMAS model submitted by Jinlun Zhang shows a mostly open Northwest Passage (Figure 2).

The updated ensemble prediction from the PIOMAS model submitted by Zhang and Lindsay is in agreement and shows an open Northwest Passage with little uncertainty (Figure 2).

Here we use an ensemble of simulations with a coupled ocean — atmosphere model to show that the sea surface temperature anomalies associated with central Pacific El Niño force changes in the extra-tropical atmospheric circulation.

The ensemble prediction from the PIOMAS model submitted by Zhang and Lindsay shows a mostly - open Northwest Passage (Figure 2, left) and their forecast is for an open Northwest Passage in September.

Mean modeled winter precipitation from CESM LME ensemble members 2 to 5 show unsystematic differences in Southwest winter precipitation variability between each other and with our NADA PDSI time series (Table 1, S1 Fig).

Nevertheless, almost all model ensemble members show a warming trend in both LT and MT larger than observational estimates (McKitrick et al., 2010; Po - Chedley and Fu, 2012; Santer et al., 2012).

And that this is reflected in individual model runs but as the timing of events such as El Nino / La Nina, volcanic eruptions etc. is unpredictable when projections are made based on ensemble runs then they will tend to average out and the projection will show a fairly steady trend.