[10] Weighting models by the likelihood of the observed TLC reflection — SST relationship at the model's best estimate (mean) of it, widening the observational uncertainty to allow for the average uncertainty of
the model estimate means, is a more reasonable approach.
Not exact matches
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meaning of the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 and Canadian securities laws, including statements regarding: BlackBerry's expectations regarding new product initiatives and timing, including the BlackBerry 10 platform; BlackBerry's plans and expectations regarding new service offerings, and assumptions regarding its service revenue
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This news release contains forward - looking statements within the
meaning of the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 and Canadian securities laws, including statements regarding: BlackBerry's expectations regarding new product initiatives and timing, including the BlackBerry 10 platform; BlackBerry's plans and expectations regarding new service offerings, and assumptions regarding its service revenue
model; BlackBerry's plans, strategies and objectives, and the anticipated opportunities and challenges in fiscal 2014; anticipated demand for, and BlackBerry's plans and expectations relating to, programs to drive sell - through of the Company's BlackBerry 7 and 10 smartphones and BlackBerry PlayBook tablets; BlackBerry's expectations regarding financial results for the second quarter of fiscal 2014; BlackBerry's expectations with respect to the sufficiency of its financial resources; BlackBerry's ongoing efforts to streamline its operations and its expectations relating to the benefits of its Cost Optimization and Resource Efficiency («CORE») program and similar strategies; BlackBerry's plans and expectations regarding marketing and promotional programs; and BlackBerry's
estimates of purchase obligations and other contractual commitments.
Construction methods include equal weighting, two versions of minimum volatility, three versions of
mean - variance optimization, eight versions of reward - to - risk timing (six of which involve factor
models) and a characteristic - based scheme that each year
estimates stock weights based on market capitalization, book - to - market ratio, gross profitability, investment, short - term reversal and momentum.
This
means that climate
models that include microorganisms to
estimate future climate change must be reconsidered.
Other researchers have used computer
models to
estimate what an event similar to a Maunder Minimum, if it were to occur in coming decades, might
mean for our current climate, which is now rapidly warming.
The ~ 6 - million - km2 Amazonian lowlands were divided into 1 ° cells, and
mean tree density was
estimated for each cell by using a loess regression
model that included no environmental data but had its basis exclusively in the geographic location of tree plots.
Early tests of the
model showed that it was able to
estimate pain levels with about 80 % degree of accuracy, which
means that the system is learning.
Then, the researcher used a mathematical
model to translate the quantile
estimates into
mean and standard deviation of yield.
To examine this question, we preregistered a series of analyses using Multiple Indicator Multiple Causes (MIMIC)
models (Jöreskog & Goldberger, 1975; Kievit et al., 2012) to relate the
mean and slope
estimates for fluid intelligence to the various brain measures, and asked:
Regional climate
model bias correction improved the
estimates on changes to future
mean runoff
The kinder, gentler
model from the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research in the United Kingdom
estimated a wetter, warmer future: Rainfall may increase 20 percent to 25 percent,
mean annual temperatures could increase 2 degrees Fahrenheit by 2030 and 4 degrees by 2100.
Longitudinal mixed
models were also used to
estimate the effect of vaccine dose on
mean log - transformed antibody levels over time, using a spatial exponential covariance structure to
model the correlation between measurements from the same individual while taking into account the number of study days between measurements.
For example, if someone publishes a paper with a simplified
model that assumes no feedbacks giving a
mean ECS at 1.2 K, this will not push the combined
estimate downwards (regardless of what will be written on the «skeptic» blogs...).
Jackknife estimation of abundance using the heterogeneity
models [25] showed that the
estimated mean adult population ranged from 12 (95 % CI = 11 — 19) to 14 (95 % CI = 14 — 21) during the four years (Table 1).
It seems about 500 ppm CO2 could eventually
mean an ice free planet, much lower than the circa 1000 ppm that ice sheet
models seem to
estimate.
Today's real cool fact of the day is that holistic medicine is used by about half the world's population and that the WHO, the World Health Organization, which is not a friend of alternative medicine or quite often stuff that works, other then very basic sanitary measures, but they're
estimating that between 65 - 80 % of the world's population uses what they call alternative medicine as their primary from of healthcare compared to only 10 - 30 % of people who use conventional medicine, which actually
means that since the vast majority of people use alternative medicine that's conventional medicine, and what they call conventional medicine is actually a radical alternative, if only 10 % of the world is using the burn and poison
model of medicine, which is the one that's quite often promoted that way.
«Researchers reanalyzed the LA Times data and came up with different results, and I analyzed the NYC data, and even though NYC uses a pretty rich value - added
model that controls for lots of stuff, eliminating much of the bias, that
means you're left with relatively noisy
estimates, that jump around a lot from year to year.»
We analyzed data using the LISREL 8.80 analysis of covariance structure approach to path analysis and maximum likelihood
estimates.42 We used four goodness - of - fit statistics to assess the fit of our path
model with the data: the Root
Mean Square Error of Approximation test (RMSEA), the Norm - fit index (NFI), the adjusted Goodness of Fit index (GFI) and the
mean Root
Mean Square Residual (RMR).
Available in blue, white, and black, the
model is
estimated to hit 62 mph in 4.5 seconds, which
means it should be about on par with its rival.
«We have dropped a full test - weight category,» Downey says, which
means the ’19
model will see a fuel economy increase in the EPA
estimates.
This new
model's high - tech powertrain is
meant to give the Sonata Eco a slight boost in fuel economy numbers, to an
estimated 28/38/32 mpg (city / highway / combined) rating.
The 1997 Metro averages 44 miles per gallon in the city and 49 on the highway, according to EPA
estimates in the
Model Year 1997 Fuel Economy Guide, which
means it's sipping gas through a baby straw.
I've
estimated a number of
mean - reverting
models in my time.
For what it's worth, I haven't specifically checked for the effect of non-linearities on the underlying trend (as
estimated based on the
model mean) on the liberality of the test on the tropospheric trend presented in the test reported in Table III in Santer et al..
The graphs compare the global
mean temperature
estimated by the
models with that
estimated from the data.
The
estimated uptake timescales are within the range he reports for his data - driven calculation, 50 years or so, even though the
mean uptake time of the ocean reservoirs in that
model, weighted by their sizes, is 600 years.
[Response: There are a couple of issues here — first, the number of ensemble members for each
model is not the same and since each additional ensemble member is not independent (they have basically the same climatological
mean), you have to be very careful with
estimating true degrees of freedom.
Since the sensitivity
estimates using the Otto et al method in the
model world are biased low, using the
estimated efficacies in the real world
means that the sensitivities from the adjusted methodologies are going to be increased, and indeed that's exactly what happens.
Mean temperature,
mean monthly precipitation, frequency of hot / cold days / nights, and indices of extreme precipitation are all
estimated for each country based on observed and
modeled data.
Estimates of the
mean trend are obtained for each family of
models (i.e. a set of
models coming from the same
model team) and at the same time an
estimate of the relationship between GSMT and trend is also obtained.
It seems about 500 ppm CO2 could eventually
mean an ice free planet, much lower than the circa 1000 ppm that ice sheet
models seem to
estimate.
«Researchers (17, 18)
estimated mean and SD of feedback factors calculated from two different suites of climate
models.
Kauker et al. (AWI / OASys), 5.58 (+ / - 0.41),
Modeling (same as June) We
estimate a monthly
mean September sea - ice extent of 5.67 ± 0.40 million km2 (without assimilation of sea - ice / ocean observations).
The
mean of the sample of realizations is an unbiased
estimate of the
mean of the population of possible realizations of the
model.
But more to the point, the decade
estimate would
mean that we would expect some significant reassessment of the
models after THIS YEAR, 2008!!
The GRACE
estimates for Antarctica used in that study were not our own and were based on a
mean of W12a and an alternative new GIA
model.
By comparing
modelled and observed changes in such indices, which include the global
mean surface temperature, the land - ocean temperature contrast, the temperature contrast between the NH and SH, the
mean magnitude of the annual cycle in temperature over land and the
mean meridional temperature gradient in the NH mid-latitudes, Braganza et al. (2004)
estimate that anthropogenic forcing accounts for almost all of the warming observed between 1946 and 1995 whereas warming between 1896 and 1945 is explained by a combination of anthropogenic and natural forcing and internal variability.
They are left with 0.7 mm / yr of their observed 1.8 mm / yr budget unexplained (clearly this
means they don't say anything like «half ice half warming»), which they suggest could be partially closed by terrestrial storage changes though that would be beyond the range of their forward
modelling estimates.
The FAR used simple global climate
models to
estimate changes in the global
mean surface air temperature under various CO2 emissions scenarios.
While the resulting ECS as predicted by the
models will still be within the previously
estimated range, it appears that the
mean ECS
estimate will now be closer to the lower end of this range.
It is that, in all likelihood, the
model - based
mean ECS
estimate of 3.2 C, as used by IPCC in the past, is exaggerated by a factor of 2 (to 1.6 - 1.7 C instead).
Since it is impossible to know which elements, if any, of these
models are correct, we used an average of all 13 scenarios to approximate growth rates for the various energy types as a
means to
estimate trends to 2040 indicative of hypothetical 2oC pathways.
Dr Curry, the
mean model surface temperature trend
estimate is ~ 0.20 C / decade compared to Cowtan and Way ~ +0.17 C or GISS ~ +0.16 C (both attempting improved Arctic representation).
While the
models get the warming just about right for the current concentrations of CO2, the fact that they tend to have lower
estimates of historical emissions
means that the carbon budgets based on the relationship between cumulative CO2 emissions and warming tend to be on the low side.
«When initialized with states close to the observations,
models «drift» towards their imperfect climatology (an
estimate of the
mean climate), leading to biases in the simulations that depend on the forecast time.
All calculations (i.e. here or here) using the regression method - observed GMST vs. the total forcings - come to TCR
estimates which are well below the
mean of the CMIP5
models of 1.8 K / doubling CO2.
Recall that my comment was
meant to point out that one can
estimate a sensitivity of temperature to CO2 without recourse to
models.
First with your approach you do end up effectively having to
estimate the temperature function across the globe, and this really
means building a stochastic global temperature
model (and deciding how linear it is etc etc).
We
estimate the low - frequency internal variability of Northern Hemisphere (NH)
mean temperature using observed temperature variations, which include both forced and internal variability components, and several alternative
model simulations of the (natural + anthropogenic) forced component alone.