Sentences with phrase «model expected warming»

• For the past 15 years, global warming has been occurring at a rate that is below the average climate model expected warming

New Statement: For most of the past 17 years, global warming has been occurring at a rate that is below the average climate model expected warming.

Old Statement: For the past 15 years, global warming has been occurring at a rate that is below the average climate model expected warming.

Not exact matches

The hot has been long expected as part of global warming theory and appears in many global climate models.

A few of the main points of the third assessment report issued in 2001 include: An increasing body of observations gives a collective picture of a warming world and other changes in the climate system; emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosols due to human activities continue to alter the atmosphere in ways that are expected to affect the climate; confidence in the ability of models to project future climate has increased; and there is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities.

The models showed a general increase in extreme rainfall but the global warming signal was not strong enough yet to rise above the expected natural variation.

At the same time, new studies of climate sensitivity — the amount of warming expected for a doubling of carbon dioxide levels from 0.03 to 0.06 percent in the atmosphere — have suggested that most models are too sensitive.

The group also used a general circulation model to predict what might be expected to happen in the world's wine locales in the next 50 years and determined that an average additional warming of two degrees C may occur.

Climate modeling shows that the trends of warming ocean temperatures, stronger winds and increasingly strong upwelling events are expected to continue in the coming years as carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere increase.

The team's results «help us understand why Earth didn't warm as much as expected by climate models in the past decade or so.»

Climate change models predict that the Arctic sea ice will continue to shrink in a warming world (as much as 40 % of the ice is expected to be gone by midcentury), and the resulting changes — including later formation of ice in the autumn, rain falling on the snow, and decreasing snow depths — will make it increasingly difficult for the seals to construct their snow caves, NOAA says.

Velders says his team came up with higher warming estimates than IPCC because their model accounts for trends that others don't, such as the faster - than expected adoption of HFCs driven by the Montreal Protocol, and an air - conditioning boom in the developing world.

A new paper by Levermann et al. in PNAS uses the record of past rates of sea level rise from palaeo archives and numerical computer models to understand how much sea level rise we can expect per degree of warming in the future.

Scientists have modelled the expected temperature drop over the 21st century due to waning solar activity — and they found that the change is likely to be dwarfed by the much bigger warming effect of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.

The real «equilibrium climate sensitivity,» which is the amount of global warming to be expected for a doubling of atmospheric CO2, is likely to be about 1 °C, some three times smaller than most models assumed.

The paper's lead author describes his findings thus — «Recent observations suggest the expected rate of warming in response to rising greenhouse gas levels, or «Transient Climate Response,» is likely to lie within the range of current climate models, but not at the high end of this range.

The team relied on climate modeling as well as observations to show that the effect is already occurring in the Arctic and is expected to increase in the future as the climate warms.

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The inclusion of a negative b value for the first derivative term in the model defies physical rational... more rapid warming is expected to correspond to a faster not slower rate of rise.

I have observed greater variations in Arctic Inversions lately, the tendency is towards less steep inversions, this is expected when the Arctic lower atmosphere warms during winter, if the models maintain a stronger inversion while its observed weakening this may explain why sea ice models fail, strong boundary layers appear to be collapsing.

May be circulation has indeed changed and that World wide warming is masking the cooling signal as expected by models.

No climate model has ever shown a year - on - year increase in temperatures because of the currently expected amount of global warming.

The observations are obviously poor — all of them — and need adjustment to reflect the expected warming from the models!

or «[models] continue to show that Antarctica can not be expected to warm up very significantly until long after the rest of the world».

DR PETER COX: «2040 it could be four degrees warmer, the climate change could have led to big drying particularly in the Amazon Basin, that would make the forest unsustainable, we'd expect the forest to catch fire probably, turn into savannah and maybe ultimately even desert if it gets really really dry as our model suggests.»

Harold Brooks, a research meteorologist at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's national severe storms laboratory, said that models of climate change suggest that over the next 100 years, a warming earth will provide more energy for storms, so «we expect there will be more environments that are favorable for severe thunderstorms.»

Connolley and Bracegirdle (2007) show that expected trends in a much larger sample of models are very varied (though the ensemble mean warms at about the rate seen in the Steig et al paper).

However climate models from even 20 - 30 years ago [Schneider and Thompson (1981); Bryan et al (1988); Manabe et al (1992)-RSB- predicted that the response of the Antarctic to enhanced greenhouse - induced warming would be much delayed relative to the warming expected to occur in the Arctic.

Especially since based on the model calculations you'd expect anyway trends around 0.2 degrees per decade, because models predict not a constant but a gradually accelerating warming.

Dallas: I didn't smooth much of anything — just plotted the total warming expected using the annual averages, and compared it to the model's results using their annual averages.

Since all of the IPCC's models «project» the «likelihood» of a steady warming over this period, all of them must be wrong, and we can expect similar failures for all the other «projections».»

The models overestimated warming from 1979 - 2011, but if you look at GISTEMP for example you can see that the East Pacific is cooler in 2011 than it was in 1979 and the models did not capture that as they have no PDO in the correct phase and are not expected to because PDOs are transient changes.

The troposphere doesn't exhibit a hot spot, the stratosphere isn't cooling, the oceans are not accumulating heat, the warming has been 40 % of that expected, and the models are inching close to falsification.

In other words, «we don't know how models are tuned, but trust us, they certainly aren't tuned to produce the expected warming.»

Your statement is misleading because the IPCC 2007 report specifically shows model's indicating that GHG's is expected to promote warming in tropical atmosphere (the «hot spot»).

Yale University scientists reported that they may have resolved a controversial glitch in models of global warming: A key part of the atmosphere didn't seem to be warming as expected.

So, they didn't actually simulate sea level changes, but instead estimated how much sea level rise they would expect from man - made global warming, and then used computer model predictions of temperature changes, to predict that sea levels will have risen by 0.8 - 2 metres by 2100.

Well, now, IF IPCC concedes - that ECS is very likely 1.6 - 1.7 C - that expected warming by 2100 is projected to be around 1C rather than 2 - 6C, as previously estimated)- that the model - predicted changes in «severe weather» from AR4 are no longer likely to occur, as a result.

A number of the man - made global warming computer models have tried to simulate how much «sea level rise» to expect from man - made global warming, e.g., Meehl et al., 20015 (Abstract; Google Scholar access); Jevrejeva et al., 2010 (Abstract; Google Scholar access); Jevrejeva et al., 2012 (Abstract; Google Scholar access).

# 5: Global climate model simulations that include greenhouse gases indicate that the magnitude of warming that would be expected from greenhouse gas increases is at least as large as the observed warming.

«All climate models show that as the climate warms, we should expect more frequent atmospheric river storms, which isn't good in California because it's almost like too much rain at one time,» she said.

In summary, then, the best available models indicate that 1) global warming is a problem that is expected to have only a limited impact on the world economy and 2) it is economically rational only to reduce slightly this marginal impact through global carbon taxes.

We're in the midst of a «hiatus decade», but as Christy's own figure shows, the observed warming is nevertheless consistent with the envelope of model runs, because climate models expect hiatus decades to sometimes occur.

Interpretation of climate model simulations has emphasized the existence of plateaus or hiatus in the warming for time scales of up to 15 - 17 years; longer periods have not been previously anticipated, and the IPCC AR4 clearly expected a warming of 0.2 C per decade for the early part of the 21st century.

There are no models which correctly predicted the slowdown in global warming after around 1995, or the sudden increase in the rate of warming since 2014 — or the actual expected temperature for any year.

While theoretical and model experiments show warmer seas drive more intense storms in the future, the total number isn't expected to increase.

Thus one would expect that that the warming models without feedback are better established and agreed to than those with feedback.

Although climate models have been predicting increasing average global temperatures over the next century or so, the past decade has not shown as much warming as most scientists had expected.

This simplified model suggests that even the IPCC is not expecting a significant warming where most people live, but rather a warming where it is cold by a few degrees.

The current version of the figure gives the impression that the IPCC expected temperature to warm continuously year on year, which of course was not the expectation — the projections shown here are just the long - term trend either from averaging the GCMs or using simple climate models.