Sentences with phrase «model forecasts with»

Validation tests published two years after the original bet compared no - change model forecasts with IPCC dangerous warming forecasts for horizons from one to 100 years, and found that no - change forecasts were considerably more accurate; especially over longer horizons.

Bain recently looked at a subset of post-financial-crisis deals in its proprietary database and compared deal model forecasts with actual results over the holding period.

Last March, the Daily Mail reported that global temperatures are about to drop «below the level that the (computer) models forecast with»90 percent certainty.»»

Not exact matches

While models that attempt to forecast potential economic impacts provide useful insights regarding potential risks when exploring policy choices, the Commission is of the view that it must also consider the potential upsides of greater choice, including the retention of subscribers in the system, as well as the risks associated with maintaining the status quo in a context of increased demand for more choice.

With the economy refusing to obey models and forecasts, the question increasingly arises: do economists know anything?

Perhaps there's still hope for the U.K. team, with PwC adding a caveat to the forecasts: «We are not claiming that our model will forecast medals won with total accuracy.

Poloz lauded the work of his forecasting department on numerous occasions, suggesting he is pleased with the way they tweaked their models to reflect contemporary economic conditions.

And much of Sullivan's reporting was consistent with the forecast from KGI Securities analyst Ming - Chi Kuo, he of the most accurate Apple rumor track record, from way back in November that Apple was prepping three new models for 2017 including one with a fancy OLED screen.

Our model - based forecasts are complemented by judgment, which is supported by extensive consultations with companies and other contacts.

The key take away of Figure 1 is that one can value a stock in the same way one values a bond as long as one is flexible with the length of the forecast period in the DCF model.

The salient points are (I) inflation is below target and expected to remain well sub-target for the next 5 10 20 and 30 years; (II) it has been well below target and Fed forecasts for a decade suggesting great skepticism about models that predict acceleration (iii) the 2 percent target is supposed to be an average so inflation should sometimes exceed it especially after a long shortfall (iv) if the 9th year of expansion with unemployment approaching 4 percent is not the time for above target inflation when will that moment ever come?

With respect to our export forecast, today we are publishing two new staff discussion papers on our modelling of exports.

The electric - car maker denied the article's claims and asserted that Model 3 production is on track with its previous forecasts.

With the top stock analysis software behind you, you can leverage our DCF models to quickly and precisely measure the impact of your forecasts on a stock's valuation.

With Japan in its fourth recession since 2008, the Euro Zone teetering on the brink of deflation, and widespread concerns around the sustainability of China's infrastructure - led growth model, it's not hard to see why the IMF revised their forecasts.

Our model indicates that going forward, long - term yields will likely be subject to three upward pressures: (1) Our forecasted increase in inflation will boost nominal GDP growth; (2) As forward guidance is replaced by a data - dependent monetary tightening, volatility in short rates will increase; and (3) As the impact of QE on the Treasury market fades, long - term yields will trend back to their historical link with nominal GDP growth.

So here's what I think about the election: The forecasts — based on complicated models — found in the APSA's PS by real social scientists — with the exception of the one by the astute James Campbell — are, as usual, too timid in terms of picking up the impending surge....

Our unique, highly efficient business model allows us to forecast with less risk than traditional bricks and mortar supermarkets.

Last week saw some satisfying predictions on Sunday, as Everton ran out comfortable winners at home to Arsenal - in line with the model's forecasts - and Liverpool won away at West Ham.

Back then, it said that the planet was warming at a rate of 0.2 C every decade — a figure it claimed was in line with the forecasts made by computer climate models.

As a result, the range of possibilities with 95 % probability of happening has widened somewhat by comparison with my previous forecasting models.

Three of the four forecasting models with vote shares are expecting the Tories to underperform their polling averages, despite the party's historical tendency to do better the polls suggest.

The forecasting model works by combining the number of seats won by parties in the previous election with vote intentions data from polls conducted six months prior to the election — in this case the data is from November 2014.

A 10 - year joint funding settlement for health and social care (or five years, with a forecast of the next five years including modelling of demand) would enable commissioners to invest in integrated services, prevention and the technology needed to underpin this, knowing that they will be able to sustain the funding long enough to release savings.

YouGov's new seat analysis model caused a huge stir when it launched this week with a forecast of a hung parliament.

Forecasters merged 480 different models for the 2007 California forecast to produce a single forecast with more clearly defined uncertainties.

But when researchers ran the same model with the usual data from the US forecasting programme, it came up short.

To find out more about how meteorologists use forecasting models to get ahead of Mother Nature as well as the limitations of this technology, Scientific American spoke with Thomas Else, chief meteorologist and director of meteorological services and computer programming for Hackettstown, N.J. - based weather forecasting consulting firm Weather Works LLC.

«When used in conjunction with forecasted data, the model predictions could be useful for focusing both surveillance efforts, and the pre-positioning of material and equipment in areas and periods of particularly high risk.

The team used real - time seasonal rainfall, temperature and El Niño forecasts, issued at the start of the year, combined with data from active surveillance studies, in a probabilistic model of dengue epidemics to produce robust dengue risk estimates for the entire year.

After dividing and mapping out tweets and crime records onto a grid and identifying common topics of discussion (e.g., sports, restaurants, and entertainment) appearing in tweets, Gerber combined conclusions from this analysis with older forecasting models to predict crimes over the next month.

And when compared with a 1000 - year reconstruction of past droughts based on more than 1800 tree - ring chronologies collected across the continent, droughts forecast by nearly every one of those models are «unprecedented,» even if CO2 emissions are dramatically reduced, researchers say.

Working with the University of New South Wales, scientists have developed a computer model which uses past wave observations and beach assessments to forecast the erosion and / or accretion of beach sediments over the coming year.

In February and March of this year, Morton met with ministers in Brazil and Peru to discuss the model's 2012 performance and preliminary 2013 fire forecasts, and to examine potential uses of the forecasting information by the area's forest managers.

«It's like weather forecasts, but for bionutrients and phytoplankton in the ocean,» said Cecile Rousseaux, an ocean modeler with Goddard's Global Modeling and Assimilation Office.

Meteorologists compare NOAA's models with others from international modeling centers to come up with the forecasts seen on the Web or the evening news.

The freely - accessible database of storm surge data has been compiled through the multi-partner, international eSurge project, which was launched in 2011 with the aim of making available observational data to improve the modelling and forecasting of storm surges around the world using advanced techniques and instruments.

The current work describes «state - of - the - art computational modeling capabilities that can monitor, assess, and forecast, in near real time, a variety of phenomena associated with country instability.»

Mora's models merge temperature records with climate forecasts to predict when the temperature for any given region «departs» from its historic range.

Consulting firm Applied Strategies collected responses from global, regional and national public health officials, and these responses were incorporated with information gleaned from donors and manufacturers into a forecast model, explains Sandra Wrobel, president of Applied Strategies.

To forecast the winner, they obtained long - term winning odds of 22 online bookmakers, which in combination with complex statistical models allow for the simulation of all possible courses of the tournament and results.

«Given the promise shown by the research and the ever increasing computing power, numerical prediction of hailstorms and warnings issued based on the model forecasts, with a couple of hours of lead time, may indeed be realized operationally in a not - too - distant future, and the forecasts will also be accompanied by information on how certain the forecasts are.»

The fire severity forecast model, developed by Yang Chen and Jim Randerson at the University of California, Irvine, along with NASA scientists, was first published in 2011 in the journal Science.

The researchers» forecasts are based on the AWI's BRIOS (Bremerhaven Regional Ice - Ocean Simulations) model, a coupled ice - ocean model that the team forced with atmospheric data from the SRES - A1B climate scenario, created at Britain's Met Office Hadley Centre in Exeter.

To check their model forecast, as the dry season has gotten underway, the researchers have compared their initial forecast with observations coming in from NASA's precipitation satellite missions» multisatellite datasets, as well as groundwater data from the joint NASA / German Aerospace Center Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission.

European satellites might be an option — if they are available and produce data in a format compatible with U.S. weather - forecasting models.

VIMS Dean & Director John Wells calls the results of the team's sub-grid inundation model a «breakthrough» in storm - tide forecasting — with model output within 6 to 8 inches of the water levels recorded in New York City during Sandy by the U.S. Geological Survey.

When the expert predictions were compared with the real 2014 results, they were found to be no better than a naïve forecasting model that assumes each team will replicate their previous year's performance.

Professor Bernd Blasius from the University of Oldenburg and one of the researchers involved in the study, said: «Our model combines information such as shipping routes, ship sizes, temperatures and biogeography to come up with local forecasts of invasion probabilities.»

The forecasting model is sensitive to detect dengue outbreaks and non-outbreaks with up to twenty per cent chance of false alarm.