Sentences with phrase «model hindcasts»

Your statement that «Thus it is natural to look at the real world and see whether there is evidence that it behaves in the same way (and it appears to, since model hindcasts of past changes match observations very well)» seems to indicate that you think there will be no changes in ocean circulation or land use trends, nor any subsequent changes in cloud responses thereto or other atmospheric circulation.

Observed warming is consistant with published model hindcasts for this period (especially when difficulties with forcing estimation is accounted for).

In particular, larger ensemble sizes may help improving the predictive skill of total water storage in the Southern US / Mexico region where the climate model hindcast slightly out - competes the predictive skill by the Markov model (Fig. 8d).

«This study takes advantage of more than 25 years of observations and detailed model hindcasts to comprehensively demonstrate that these early predictions were right.»

For reference, where is the GISS model hindcast from 1950 onwards you're comparing this with?

With regard to the 2009 outlook projections relative to the observed value, Kaleschke states that the projections are at the upper range of the uncertainty based on statistical methods and Kauker finds that the observed extent is within the error tolerance based on model hindcast estimates.

As a result of these processes, the predictability for both the Markov model and CESM model hindcasts increases with depth attaining values of up to 5 — 8 years for the northern US and 10 years for the southern US / Mexico index regions.

To compare our CESM results with the damped persistence of a simple 1st order Markov model, we conducted a 10,000 member Monte Carlo linear 1st order Markov model hindcast (Eq.

Uncertainty is propagated forward in time by assuming that the fractional error found in model hindcasts of global mean temperature change will remain constant in projections of future changes.

In Florida, unpublished historical surveys (S.J. Epperly personal communication) are consistent with our modeled hindcasts that suggest a population increase from the 1960s through the 1980s.

The retrospective investigation consists of a model hindcast for more than a half century using «reality - based» atmospheric forcing to drive the model.

fitted to the past; it just happens that the models all hindcast much better than forecast.

The fact that models hindcast well has absolutely no predictive power as to whether they will forecast well