While most companies stop short of disclosing details of the «planning scenarios that inform their investment decisions, one can gain insights into their thinking with each annual «Energy Outlook» and the shifts in
model input assumptions used.
Not exact matches
The white paper authors did not consult with industry in the course of their work, resulting in significant inaccuracies in the
model inputs and
assumptions.
February 22, 2017 IEPR Commissioner Workshop on Data
Inputs and
Assumptions for IEPR
Modeling and Forecasting Activities
Key
inputs to our
modeling include PIMCO's long - term capital market
assumptions.
The Delay Deduction?spreadsheet
models your choices and allows you to
input your own variable
assumptions.
Inputs refer broadly to the assumptions that market participants would use in pricing the asset or liability, including assumptions about risk, for example, the risk inherent in a particular valuation technique used to measure fair value including such a pricing model and / or the risk inherent in the inputs to the valuation tech
Inputs refer broadly to the
assumptions that market participants would use in pricing the asset or liability, including
assumptions about risk, for example, the risk inherent in a particular valuation technique used to measure fair value including such a pricing
model and / or the risk inherent in the
inputs to the valuation tech
inputs to the valuation technique.
Let me begin by saying that I don't have a detailed understanding of the
model's various
inputs and all of its
assumptions.
Ok in response to relative humidity being at or near constant, it is the
models which tend to represent it as so, due to the
input assumption as so.
Incorporation of information typically used as
input assumptions by integrated assessment
models of the global energy - economy - land use system, or by global - scale climate impact
models of different sectors.
It's also not surprising that an off - the - cuff prediction that the future will look like the past is not a bad way to predict the future, but the
models were not given the benefit of that shortcut, and so what was at issue was their ability to yield reasonable output on the basis of
inputted physical principles, initial and boundary values, parametrizations, and appropriate choice of simplifying
assumptions.
It also implies that regulatory
models should be managed in a way to enhance
models in a timely manner and assist users and others to understand a
model's conceptual basis,
assumptions,
input data requirements, and life history.»
Remember: empirical scientific evidence (Feynman)(not what someone said on a blog site, and certainly not
model simulations, which are only as good as the
input assumptions).
The only point I would make is that made repeatedly by Willis Eschenbach (my simplification):
Model outputs are only as good as their
input assumptions.
[Not
model simulations, which are only as good as their
input assumptions, but empirical evidence i.e. based on actual physical observations or reproducible experimentation (Feynman)-RSB-
We are helping you to understand that there are other plausible explanations for global warming, and the
assumption that it is due to CO2 is based only on opinionated papers hand - waved through the peer review process by friendly referees [while skeptical papers rarely see the light of day], and by computer
model outputs, which are invariably unable to predict the future climate, or even today's climate with all available past data as the
input.
This is why Carbon Tracker has reviewed the
modelling assumptions of institutions to ensure scenario
inputs are as accurate as possible.
Only th
models project a doom and they only reflect the pessimistic
assumptions made in the
inputs.
Thus they
input erroneous data, simplistic
assumptions, personal biases, and political and financial calculations, letting
models spew out specious scenarios and phony forecasts: garbage in, garbage out.
The
assumptions made appear to be the
input to super scientific computer
modeling that achieves desired results.
On the other hand, had the actual temperature trend been as Hansen's
model projected, one could have concluded that Hansen's
model (including the
input assumptions made) were validated (or corroborated) by the observed data.
The attribution of the warming is made from
assumptions [G and Curry] from
models and the
models are all programmed to
input 0.2 degrees rise a decade [the rise that «must «occur when CO2 is going up at this rate»].»
While the AEO 2017 Reference case continues to
model the Clean Power Plan as law, other changes to
input assumptions have resulted in strikingly different projections, relative to AEO 2016.
There has been no attempt to propagate uncertainty through the FUND, DICE and PAGE
models, not to mention whatever front end
assumptions about carbon and climate are being used as
inputs.
But the realism of such
models are only as good their
assumptions and
inputs, some of which is worth scrutiny.
There is a wide range in the estimated heat - trapping emissions and other environmental impacts from each biofuel over its life cycle (i.e., from farm to finished fuel to use in the vehicle), depending on the feedstock, production process, and
model inputs and
assumptions.
Models reflect Computational — the results are exactly what they should be based on the
assumptions and data
input.
I do have an independent way to test your speculation — which is to see whether my forward
model of the GISS - E2 - R historic run is significantly improved by modifying the forcing
input under the
assumption that the LU data were not correctly included.
The
models return the result that CO2 is the most important driver of climate in the coming century because their programmers built them with that
assumption, not because the
model somehow sorts through different
inputs and comes up with the key drivers on its own.
This
model allows in - house counsel and law firms to test
assumptions and
input data (for example, numbers of associates and partners, rates, overhead, etc.) and see how changes in these and other factors can affect a firm's efficiency and profitability.
So the first problem with the
model is with the underlying
assumption that ignores the customer who wants to pay for outputs, not
inputs.