When compared to the Scharf / HAS / 7th grader
model (i.e. a simple straight line with a slope defined by the 1979 - 1988
trend), it beats it in predictive skill, and wallops it in hindcasting, wherein the naive
model with a slope of 0.5 C / 30 years predicts that in 1700 the temperature of the planet was 5C cooler than 2000, and in 1400 the temperature of the planet was 10C cooler, and yes,
keep on
going.