This number is traditionally calculated using complex computer
models of the climate system, but despite decades of progress, the number is still subject to uncertainty.
What is needed for a variety of reasons, however, is for river flow itself to be treated
in models of the climate system.
While such behaviour has long been known and studied in the context of
simple models of the climate system, such thresholds are now also found in the comprehensive coupled climate models currently available.
I think one of the important issues is to be
doing modelling of the climate system consequences of fully 1.5 C pathways and maybe even more than that.
This is hardly a complete picture of 1970s science, nor does it give us a very
good model of the climate system (as understood by 1970s scientists).
The
consensus model of climate has a long track record of successful predictions — that makes it very unlikely that it is fundamentally wrong.
The advantage of computer -
based models of the climate is that, unlike «experiments» on the real thing, experiments on a model climate can be repeated.
As I've said elsewhere, there is no physically
coherent model of climate change that is linear, magic jump, then linear again.
If each embodies a
correct model of the climate, and each has a different climate sensitivity, only one (at most) should replicate observed data.
We've started by demanding that our schools be powered by clean energy and
become models of climate responsibility for the rest of society.
Computer models of climate are one tool for specialists but what we currently lack is not a better model but expertise on how to use them most appropriately.
That this would occur was a prediction of climate theory dating back 114 years, so the warming supports the
consensus model of climate.
I think one of the important issues is to be
doing modelling of the climate system is consequences of fully 1.5 C pathways and maybe even more than that.
June 2009: Serreze participated in the SnowNet Project in northern Alaska, sampling snow depth and water content to help
improve models of climate change in the Arctic.
This contrasts with Treasury
modeling of climate policy, in which electricity sector emissions were projected to increase 8 % by 2020 (with Australia's emissions target met by overseas offsets).
We modify the Dynamic
Integrated model of Climate and the Economy (DICE), and use it in a cost - benefit analysis of climate engineering specifically deposition of sulphur in the stratosphere.
The changes in cloud distribution in the reprocessed satellite observations are similar to those predicted
by models of climate with recent external radiative forcing.
Carter's thinking is dangerous not only because it's bad logic, but because it encourages a linear
mental model of climate change that implies that as soon as we start reducing emissions, temperature will respond by falling.
Much of the confusion arises because so much of
scientific modeling of climate impacts assumes a wide variety of possible stabilization targets, which gives a wide range of impacts, which makes it seem like scientists don't know what's going to happen.
These interannual leaf variations are typically represented within the dynamic global vegetation
model of a climate model.
One central one for me was the day in 2006 when, at a workshop for the Donella Meadows Leadership Fellows program where I was a trainer and Peter Senge a guest presenter, Peter said, «We need to get more system
dynamics models of climate out there in the world, making a difference.
The results, published today in the journal Nature Climate Change, demonstrate the importance of factoring human behavior
into models of climate change.
Most
global models of climate change place anything the size of L.A. County (less than 150 kilometers wide) into roughly a pixel — meaning one data point and a single prediction for the entire region.