Sentences with phrase «model past climate changes»

Not exact matches

Polar latitudes hold secrets into the earths's past climate, secrets Berry Lyons believes may provide insights into the implications of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and better models of future climate change.

When scientists use climate models for attribution studies, they first run simulations with estimates of only «natural» climate influences over the past 100 years, such as changes in solar output and major volcanic eruptions.

Researchers Rebecca Dew and Michael Schwarz from the Flinders University of South Australia teamed up with Sandra Rehan, the University of New Hampshire, USA, to model its past responses to climate change with the help of DNA sequences.

The goals of the project include reconstructing extreme climate changes from the recent past (1894 - 2014), using historically referenced data to assess near - future global climate model projections, and to ultimately use this analysis to investigate ecological problems in Chesapeake Bay, such as eelgrass diebacks.

«Once these models can predict past changes, they can more accurately predict what will happen with future climate changes.»

The calculations are in line with estimates from most climate models, proving that these models do a good job of estimating past climatic conditions and, very likely, future conditions in an era of climate change and global warming.

By understanding how these fishes evolved, by understanding how we got from the past to the present, we can create a model for predicting what's going to happen as global climates change, as deforestation continues, and all of these aquatic habitats change.

Co-author Nerilie Abram, from the Australian National University, said: «In order to better understand climate change in Antarctica, we need continued climate measurements in the Antarctic and Southern Ocean, and extension of these short observational records with past climate reconstructions and climate modelling.»

The newly recovered descriptions could provide valuable perspective about past conditions and possibly help scientists hone computer models that predict changes in the region's climate.

«Formation of coastal sea ice in North Pacific drives ocean circulation, climate: New understanding of changes in North Pacific ocean circulation over the past 1.2 million years could lead to better global climate models.»

«Factors affecting extinction and origination of species are surprisingly different, with past climate change having the highest impact on extinction but not on originations,» notes researcher Daniele Silvestro from the GGBC who developed the mathematical model used in the study.

«Getting the past climate change correct in these models gives us more confidence in their ability to predict future climate change,» Otto - Bliesner says.

«The new work improves our understanding of history, allowing better model tests and allowing better assessment of how the ice responded to climate changes in the past,» Alley said, «and this will help in making better and more - reliable projections for the future.»

Climate change speeding up the clock Making a concerted effort to expand the «deep time» climate record is especially important because climate models have been constructed and refined using information on conditions over the past several hundred years, the reporClimate change speeding up the clock Making a concerted effort to expand the «deep time» climate record is especially important because climate models have been constructed and refined using information on conditions over the past several hundred years, the reporclimate record is especially important because climate models have been constructed and refined using information on conditions over the past several hundred years, the reporclimate models have been constructed and refined using information on conditions over the past several hundred years, the report says.

Climate change models have typically underestimated the amount of sea level rise observed over the past century.

In order to understand how El Niño responds to various climate forces, researchers test model predictions of past El Niño changes against actual records of past ENSO activity.

Importantly, these new observations can now be used in climate models to see if these past changes in ENSO processes can be reproduced.

Emslie's data will now allow geologists to calibrate models of past climate change and so make better climate predictions.

New understanding of changes in North Pacific ocean circulation over the past 1.2 million years could lead to better global climate models

Axel Timmermann and Tobias Friedrich constructed a numerical model that quantifies the effects of past climate and sea - level change on global human migration patterns over the past 125,000 years.

The models used to predict future global warming can accurately map past climate changes.

The extra data spanning many thousands of years that this study uncovers will go a long way to matching model projections with past observations, helping scientists identify the most accurate models for making predictions of future climate change.

Studies of the link between orbital parameters and past climate changes include spectral analysis of palaeoclimatic records and the identification of orbital periodicities; precise dating of specific climatic transitions; and modelling of the climate response to orbital forcing, which highlights the role of climatic and biogeochemical feedbacks.

He promoted the use of water stable isotopomers for reconstructing past climate changes from ice cores and with associated atmospheric modelling using both dynamically simple and General Circulation Models (GCMs).

This novel approach finds local populations in the North Pacific and Northwest Atlantic are regionally synchronized and strongly correlated to ocean conditions — such that climate models alone explain up to 88 % of the observed changes over the past several decades.

Earth system Models of Intermediate Complexity have been developed to investigate issues in past and future climate change that can not be addressed by comprehensive AOGCMs because of their large computational cost.

A large ensemble of Earth system model simulations, constrained by geological and historical observations of past climate change, demonstrates our self ‐ adjusting mitigation approach for a range of climate stabilization targets ranging from 1.5 to 4.5 °C, and generates AMP scenarios up to year 2300 for surface warming, carbon emissions, atmospheric CO2, global mean sea level, and surface ocean acidification.

Because this climate sensitivity is derived from empirical data on how Earth responded to past changes of boundary conditions, including atmospheric composition, our conclusions about limits on fossil fuel emissions can be regarded as largely independent of climate models.

Response: < / b > von Storch et al purport to test statistical methods used to reconstruct past climate patterns from «noisy» proxy data by constructing false proxy records («pseudoproxy» records) based on adding noise to model gridbox temperature series taken from a climate simulation forced with estimated past radiative forcing changes.

Observational and model studies of temperature change, climate feedbacks and changes in the Earth's energy budget together provide confidence in the magnitude of global warming in response to past and future forcing.

These is output from the large scale global models used to assess climate change in the past, and make projections for the future.

What really concerns me is that I've read a lot about climate models not being able to replicate the magnitude of abrupt regional temperature changes in the past, and Raypierre has said here that he fears that past climate records point towards some yet unknown positive feedback which might amplify warming at the northern latitudes.

Through paleo - climate simulations for the last millennium with climate models, a number of alternate forcing histories for volcanic and solar changes have been proposed to see their effect on past climate variations.

But what the GSL now says is that geological evidence from palaeoclimatology (studies of past climate change) suggests that if longer - term factors are taken into account, such as the decay of large ice sheets, the Earth's sensitivity to a doubling of CO2 could itself be double that predicted by most climate models.

Mike's work, like that of previous award winners, is diverse, and includes pioneering and highly cited work in time series analysis (an elegant use of Thomson's multitaper spectral analysis approach to detect spatiotemporal oscillations in the climate record and methods for smoothing temporal data), decadal climate variability (the term «Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation» or «AMO» was coined by Mike in an interview with Science's Richard Kerr about a paper he had published with Tom Delworth of GFDL showing evidence in both climate model simulations and observational data for a 50 - 70 year oscillation in the climate system; significantly Mike also published work with Kerry Emanuel in 2006 showing that the AMO concept has been overstated as regards its role in 20th century tropical Atlantic SST changes, a finding recently reaffirmed by a study published in Nature), in showing how changes in radiative forcing from volcanoes can affect ENSO, in examining the role of solar variations in explaining the pattern of the Medieval Climate Anomaly and Little Ice Age, the relationship between the climate changes of past centuries and phenomena such as Atlantic tropical cyclones and global sea level, and even a bit of work in atmospheric chemistry (an analysis of beryllium - 7 measureclimate record and methods for smoothing temporal data), decadal climate variability (the term «Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation» or «AMO» was coined by Mike in an interview with Science's Richard Kerr about a paper he had published with Tom Delworth of GFDL showing evidence in both climate model simulations and observational data for a 50 - 70 year oscillation in the climate system; significantly Mike also published work with Kerry Emanuel in 2006 showing that the AMO concept has been overstated as regards its role in 20th century tropical Atlantic SST changes, a finding recently reaffirmed by a study published in Nature), in showing how changes in radiative forcing from volcanoes can affect ENSO, in examining the role of solar variations in explaining the pattern of the Medieval Climate Anomaly and Little Ice Age, the relationship between the climate changes of past centuries and phenomena such as Atlantic tropical cyclones and global sea level, and even a bit of work in atmospheric chemistry (an analysis of beryllium - 7 measureclimate variability (the term «Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation» or «AMO» was coined by Mike in an interview with Science's Richard Kerr about a paper he had published with Tom Delworth of GFDL showing evidence in both climate model simulations and observational data for a 50 - 70 year oscillation in the climate system; significantly Mike also published work with Kerry Emanuel in 2006 showing that the AMO concept has been overstated as regards its role in 20th century tropical Atlantic SST changes, a finding recently reaffirmed by a study published in Nature), in showing how changes in radiative forcing from volcanoes can affect ENSO, in examining the role of solar variations in explaining the pattern of the Medieval Climate Anomaly and Little Ice Age, the relationship between the climate changes of past centuries and phenomena such as Atlantic tropical cyclones and global sea level, and even a bit of work in atmospheric chemistry (an analysis of beryllium - 7 measureclimate model simulations and observational data for a 50 - 70 year oscillation in the climate system; significantly Mike also published work with Kerry Emanuel in 2006 showing that the AMO concept has been overstated as regards its role in 20th century tropical Atlantic SST changes, a finding recently reaffirmed by a study published in Nature), in showing how changes in radiative forcing from volcanoes can affect ENSO, in examining the role of solar variations in explaining the pattern of the Medieval Climate Anomaly and Little Ice Age, the relationship between the climate changes of past centuries and phenomena such as Atlantic tropical cyclones and global sea level, and even a bit of work in atmospheric chemistry (an analysis of beryllium - 7 measureclimate system; significantly Mike also published work with Kerry Emanuel in 2006 showing that the AMO concept has been overstated as regards its role in 20th century tropical Atlantic SST changes, a finding recently reaffirmed by a study published in Nature), in showing how changes in radiative forcing from volcanoes can affect ENSO, in examining the role of solar variations in explaining the pattern of the Medieval Climate Anomaly and Little Ice Age, the relationship between the climate changes of past centuries and phenomena such as Atlantic tropical cyclones and global sea level, and even a bit of work in atmospheric chemistry (an analysis of beryllium - 7 measureClimate Anomaly and Little Ice Age, the relationship between the climate changes of past centuries and phenomena such as Atlantic tropical cyclones and global sea level, and even a bit of work in atmospheric chemistry (an analysis of beryllium - 7 measureclimate changes of past centuries and phenomena such as Atlantic tropical cyclones and global sea level, and even a bit of work in atmospheric chemistry (an analysis of beryllium - 7 measurements).

Understanding past climate changes are of course also very interesting — they provide test cases for climate models and can have profound implications for the history of human society.

In my briefings to the Association of Small Island States in Bali, the 41 Island Nations of the Caribbean, Pacific, and Indian Ocean (and later circulated to all member states), I pointed out that IPCC had seriously and systematically UNDERESTIMATED the extent of climate change, showing that the sensitivity of temperature and sea level to CO2 clearly shown by the past climate record in coral reefs, ice cores, and deep sea sediments is orders of magnitude higher than IPCC's models.

When faced with durable uncertainty on many fronts — in the modeling of the atmosphere, in data delineating past climate changes, and more — pushing ever harder to boost clarity may be scientifically important but is not likely to be very relevant outside a small circle of theorists.

Its worth getting past their tabloid like headline «Climate change: a model cock - up» to where they do try to address the issues regarding climate modClimate change: a model cock - up» to where they do try to address the issues regarding climate modclimate modelling.

The work of Schmittner et al. demonstrates that climates of the past can provide potentially powerful information to reduce uncertainty in future climate predictions and evaluate the likelihood of climate change that is larger than captured in present models.

Ironically, while some continue to attack this nearly decade - old work, the actual scientific community has moved well beyond the earlier studies, focusing now on the detailed patterns of modeled and reconstructed climate changes in past centuries, and insights into the roles of external forcing and internal modes of variability (such as the North Atlantic Oscillation or «NAO» and the «El Nino / Southern Oscillation» or «ENSO») in explaining this past variability.

See e.g. this review paper (Schmidt et al, 2004), where the response of a climate model to estimated past changes in natural forcing due to solar irradiance variations and explosive volcanic eruptions, is shown to match the spatial pattern of reconstructed temperature changes during the «Little Ice Age» (which includes enhanced cooling in certain regions such as Europe).

eg pg xii To improve our predictive capability, we need: • to understand better the various climate - related processes, particularly those associated with clouds, oceans and the carbon cycle • to improve the systematic observation of climate - related variables on a global basis, and further investigate changes which took place in the past • to develop improved models of the Earth's climate system • to increase support for national and international climate research activities, especially in developing countries • to facilitate international exchange of climate data

DeBuys finds that things will be fine for the 3.5 million people who currently depend on this water for daily use as long as (1) predictions of climate change models prove groundless, (2) the kind of droughts documented by tree rings and other records of past climate disruptions don't occur, and (3) the cities of central Arizona don't grow so much that they consume their agricultural buffer, their main protection against uncertain years ahead.

As we have discussed several times elsewhere on this site, studies employing model simulations of the past millennium have been extremely successful in reproducing many of the details evident in paleoclimate reconstructions of this interval as a forced response of the climate to natural (primarly volcanic and solar) and in more recent centuries, anthropogenic, radiative changes.

That said, human - induced climate changes there, and elsewhere, will, over the coming decades, reach the amplitude of known past and natural persistent variations, if the models are correct.

von Storch et al purport to test statistical methods used to reconstruct past climate patterns from «noisy» proxy data by constructing false proxy records («pseudoproxy» records) based on adding noise to model gridbox temperature series taken from a climate simulation forced with estimated past radiative forcing changes.

Could some aspect of our situation, e.g. the extreme rapidity of the forcing change, be sufficiently novel to make Earth's climate respond differently than it has in the past, and could this cause divergence from models based on paleoclimate sensitivity estimates?

Climate models, run on powerful computers which use decades of past and present climate data to simulate how climate will behave, or has in the past, are the most accurate and reliable source of information on potential future climate Climate models, run on powerful computers which use decades of past and present climate data to simulate how climate will behave, or has in the past, are the most accurate and reliable source of information on potential future climate climate data to simulate how climate will behave, or has in the past, are the most accurate and reliable source of information on potential future climate climate will behave, or has in the past, are the most accurate and reliable source of information on potential future climate climate change.

We can not rule out the possibility that some of the low - frequency Pacific variability was a forced response to variable solar intensity and changing teleconnections to higher latitudes that are not simulated by the models, or that non-climatic processes have influenced the proxies... the paleodata - model mismatch supports the possibility that unforced, low - frequency internal climate variability (that is difficult for models to simulate) was responsible for at least some of the global temperature change of the past millennium.»