Sentences with phrase «model predictions for future»

«The large - scale winds would look better because the release of latent heat drives a lot of those winds, and climate sensitivity would be better constrained because not only is the base state highly dependent on convective parameterization but the model predictions for future climate change are also very sensitive to that as well.»

Not exact matches

Time for some brutal honesty... this team, as it stands, is in no better position to compete next season than they were 12 months ago, minus the fact that some fans have been easily snowed by the acquisition of Lacazette, the free transfer LB and the release of Sanogo... if you look at the facts carefully you will see a team that still has far more questions than answers... to better show what I mean by this statement I will briefly discuss the current state of affairs on a position - by - position basis... in goal we have 4 potential candidates, but in reality we have only 1 option with any real future and somehow he's the only one we have actively tried to get rid of for years because he and his father were a little too involved on social media and he got caught smoking (funny how people still defend Wiltshire under the same and far worse circumstances)... you would think we would want to keep any goaltender that Juventus had interest in, as they seem to have a pretty good history when it comes to that position... as far as the defenders on our current roster there are only a few individuals whom have the skill and / or youth worthy of our time and / or investment, as such we should get rid of anyone who doesn't meet those simple requirements, which means we should get rid of DeBouchy, Gibbs, Gabriel, Mertz and loan out Chambers to see if last seasons foray with Middlesborough was an anomaly or a prediction of things to come... some fans have lamented wildly about the return of Mertz to the starting lineup due to his FA Cup performance but these sort of pie in the sky meanderings are indicative of what's wrong with this club and it's wishy - washy fan - base... in addition to these moves the club should aggressively pursue the acquisition of dominant and mobile CB to stabilize an all too fragile defensive group that has self - destructed on numerous occasions over the past 5 seasons... moving forward and building on our need to re-establish our once dominant presence throughout the middle of the park we need to target a CDM then do whatever it takes to get that player into the fold without any of the usual nickel and diming we have become famous for (this kind of ruthless haggling has cost us numerous special players and certainly can't help make the player in question feel good about the way their future potential employer feels about them)... in order for us to become dominant again we need to be strong up the middle again from Goalkeeper to CB to DM to ACM to striker, like we did in our most glorious years before and during Wenger's reign... with this in mind, if we want Ozil to be that dominant attacking midfielder we can't keep leaving him exposed to constant ridicule about his lack of defensive prowess and provide him with the proper players in the final third... he was never a good defensive player in Real or with the German National squad and they certainly didn't suffer as a result of his presence on the pitch... as for the rest of the midfield the blame falls squarely in the hands of Wenger and Gazidis, the fact that Ramsey, Ox, Sanchez and even Ozil were allowed to regularly start when none of the aforementioned had more than a year left under contract is criminal for a club of this size and financial might... the fact that we could find money for Walcott and Xhaka, who weren't even guaranteed starters, means that our whole business model needs a complete overhaul... for me it's time to get rid of some serious deadweight, even if it means selling them below what you believe their market value is just to simply right this ship and change the stagnant culture that currently exists... this means saying goodbye to Wiltshire, Elneny, Carzola, Walcott and Ramsey... everyone, minus Elneny, have spent just as much time on the training table as on the field of play, which would be manageable if they weren't so inconsistent from a performance standpoint (excluding Carzola, who is like the recent version of Rosicky — too bad, both will be deeply missed)... in their places we need to bring in some proven performers with no history of injuries... up front, although I do like the possibilities that a player like Lacazette presents, the fact that we had to wait so many years to acquire some true quality at the striker position falls once again squarely at the feet of Wenger... this issue highlights the ultimate scam being perpetrated by this club since the arrival of Kroenke: pretend your a small market club when it comes to making purchases but milk your fans like a big market club when it comes to ticket prices and merchandising... I believe the reason why Wenger hasn't pursued someone of Henry's quality, minus a fairly inexpensive RVP, was that he knew that they would demand players of a similar ilk to be brought on board and that wasn't possible when the business model was that of a «selling» club... does it really make sense that we could only make a cheeky bid for Suarez, or that we couldn't get Higuain over the line when he was being offered up for half the price he eventually went to Juve for, or that we've only paid any interest to strikers who were clearly not going to press their current teams to let them go to Arsenal like Benzema or Cavani... just part of the facade that finally came crashing down when Sanchez finally called their bluff... the fact remains that no one wants to win more than Sanchez, including Wenger, and although I don't agree with everything that he has done off the field, I would much rather have Alexis front and center than a manager who has clearly bought into the Kroenke model in large part due to the fact that his enormous ego suggests that only he could accomplish great things without breaking the bank... unfortunately that isn't possible anymore as the game has changed quite dramatically in the last 15 years, which has left a largely complacent and complicit Wenger on the outside looking in... so don't blame those players who demanded more and were left wanting... don't blame those fans who have tried desperately to raise awareness for several years when cracks began to appear... place the blame at the feet of those who were well aware all along of the potential pitfalls of just such a plan but continued to follow it even when it was no longer a financial necessity, like it ever really was...

«If — and it's a big if — that turns out to be the right avenue to go down, that could play into the models we use for our future climate predictions.»

The team can also use that satellite data to fine - tune their model's predictions for magma overpressure in the future.

The method combines a model for systems such as weather or climate with real - world data points to develop predictions about the future.

He hopes the model will be useful for future predictions along these lines, such as looking at pathways of disease progression.

But Young is concerned that the model's flexibility means it won't make specific enough predictions for future work to test it.

The scientists say that baseline data they collected and modeling predictions are important for comparative studies, especially if significant changes in amphibian health status or climatic conditions are encountered in the future.

«A challenge for the coming years is to use these kinds of climate models to be able to make predictions about populations and ecosystems in the future.

The paleoclimate data, which included mainly changes in the oxygen isotopes of the calcium carbonate deposits, were then compared to similar records from other caves, ice cores, and sediment records as well as model predictions for water availability in the Middle East and west central Asia today and into the future.

The kinder, gentler model from the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research in the United Kingdom estimated a wetter, warmer future: Rainfall may increase 20 percent to 25 percent, mean annual temperatures could increase 2 degrees Fahrenheit by 2030 and 4 degrees by 2100.

The extra data spanning many thousands of years that this study uncovers will go a long way to matching model projections with past observations, helping scientists identify the most accurate models for making predictions of future climate change.

For large animals, like hippo and buffalo, their sensitivity to change — especially with predictions of more frequent and prolonged drought — means they don't do well in any of the future scenarios modelled by the park's scientific teams.

The development and validation of new risk scores with sex - specific weighting of risk factors could be a promising tool for future prediction models.

This concept model not only previews a new design language for Infiniti, but also offers up predictions for how an innovative VC - Turbo powertrain and next - level autonomous drive technologies could be implemented in the future.

Each tool serves a different purpose: Mint is for budgeting, Personal Capital is for the investment side, Google Sheets is for tracking the history of my journey, and OnTrajectory models future growth predictions based on any number of factors.

You can find all sorts of predictions of expected future returns based on various factors, calculations, and models, but unfortunately, most of them point to a rate of return for both stocks and bonds in the next few years that is below historical averages.

A warning to the skeptics — there are very obvious trends for most of the parameters, which accord with climate model predictions for a hotter drier future.

But if the models don't show much change over the last 100 years, surely the predictions for the future indicate that this area will be hit hard?

For the future, data assimilation might help us to keep the state of a climate model closer to the real world's, allowing us to improve predictions on seasonal and decadal time scales.

(Paper abstract) Climate models may underestimate heat stored in ground General circulation models (GCMs), the primary tool for estimating the magnitude of future climate change, rely on realistic inputs to generate accurate predictions.

Similarly, it can be useful to benchmark climate models against the observed record to establish some sort of reasonable initial state for future predictions.

True — for now — but what the science shows is validation for a model that makes more dire predictions for the future and with increasing costs associated with delays to action.

I suspect that it looked OK in your view or you didn't check; «the paper i cited talks of the hiatus in global temperatures for the past 20 years or so, that the Little Ice Age was global in extent, and that climate models can not account for the observations we already have let alone make adequate predictions about what will happen in the future.

There are many who will not like this recent paper published in Nature Communications on principle as it talks of the hiatus in global temperatures for the past 20 years or so, that the Little Ice Age was global in extent, and that climate models can not account for the observations we already have let alone make adequate predictions about what will happen in the future.

Tian W. and M.P. Chipperfield, 2004: A New Coupled Chemistry - Climate Model for the Stratosphere: The Importance of Coupling for Future O3 - Climate Predictions Q.J. Roy.

Just as a hypothetical example: If climate scientist will tell me that recent pause in global warming is due to the effect of an inactive sun (which is the reality as reported by following) http://www.spaceweather.com and that they will go back and improve their models to account for this, then I would be more inclined to believe their other claims... Instead the IPCC doubles down on their predictions and claim the future effects will be worst than they originally thought?

«This research contributes to our knowledge of climate change and can inform models used for predictions of future climate change.»

The two - decade global - warming pause, which no late 1990s climate model foresaw, led the public to doubt Big Climate's confident predictions for the future.

With all the talk this week about future climate — the global warming imagined by IPCC crystal ball models, that is — the focus for many is rightly on the gulf between predictions and observations that have taken place so far.

First, the computer climate models on which predictions of rapid warming from enhanced atmospheric greenhouse gas concentration are based «run hot,» simulating two to three times the warming actually observed over relevant periods — during which non-anthropogenic causes probably accounted for some and could have accounted for all the observed warming — and therefore provide no rational basis for predicting future GAT.

@Marler: most interested people will take the extrapolations of his model into the future as «predictions», for all practical purposes.

That is, I think that you want to exempt your model from testing against future data (by declining to call your model values «predictions» etc), while at the same time claiming that the model values for the future are exceedingly important because that's what the future will be like if CO2 increases continue.

A true «prediction» can't be made because the result will depend on the future volcanic eruptions and other influences on albedo, but you can run the model for each of a couple dozen stochastic processes for the future volcanic activity.

With or without Dr. Pratt's agreement, I think that most interested people will take the extrapolations of his model into the future as «predictions», for all practical purposes.

Could models, which consistently err by several degrees in the 20th century, be trusted for their future predictions of decadal trends that are much lower than this error?

Yet some kind of climate model is indispensable to make future predictions of the climate system and IPCC has identified several reasons for respect in the climate models including the fact that models are getting better in predicting what monitoring evidence is actually observing around the world in regard to temperature, ice and snow cover, droughts and floods, and sea level rise among other things.

The conviction that climate model outputs are credible predictions for the future propagates beyond IPCC texts, often without mentioning their origin (for which we can not imagine anything else but climate models).

This has significant implications for the future and indicates that the IPCC climate models were wrong in their prediction of global temperatures soaring 1 °F per decade for the rest of the century.

However, to understand the large scale patterns in climate and their changes and drivers, climate models are not only useful, but increasingly necessary to make skillful predictions for the future.

To equate climate models with «bad» science must be understood to be an attempt to undermine any scientific justification for climate change policies because models are needed to make predictions about the future states of complex systems.

Within the confines of our work with RASM and CESM, we will: (i) quantify the added value of using regional models for downscaling arctic simulations from global models, (ii) address the impacts of high resolution, improved process representations and coupling between model components on predictions at seasonal to decadal time scales, (iii) identify the most important processes essential for inclusion in future high resolution GC / ESMs, e.g. ACME, using CESM as a test bed, and (iv) better quantify the relationship between skill and uncertainty in the Arctic Region for high fidelity models.

For a useful critique of model - starting - points which bear no relation to the real - world, see: D. Koutsoyiannis et al (2008) «On the credibility of climate predictions» in Hydrological Sciences 53 (4) August 2008 671-684, who conclude that the GCM models defy normal assessments of validity and should not be relied upon to predict future climate change.

These new sea ice proxy records are needed (1) to fully prove the scenarios of a succession from an extended ice shelf to polynya / open - water conditions (cf., Fig. 6), (2) to reconstruct in more detail the changes in sea ice cover for early, middle and late LIG intervals characterized by very different external forcings and related internal feedback mechanisms, and (3) to allow a more fundamental proxy data / modeling comparison that results in model improvements and better reproduction of the LIG climatic evolution and prediction of future climatic scenarios20, 21,22,23, 64.

If such models are inaccurate only 10 years into the future, how can they be accurate for longer - term predictions?

The UK Met Office's Hadley Centre, responsible for future climate predictions, says it incorporates solar variation and ocean cycles into its climate models, and that they are nothing new.

Computer models are the essential tool for prediction of future climate.

2) CAGW movement type models never reconstruct any lengthy past history accurately without creative and unique adjustment of aerosol values used as a fudge factor; that is why models of widely varying sensitivities supposedly all accurately reconstruct the past (different made - up assumed historical values used for each) but fail in future prediction, like they didn't predict how global average temperatures have been flat to declining over the past 15 years.

More complex examples (General Circulation Models) attempt to represent everything — clouds, air movement, rain, shrinking ice, ocean heat, as well as the interaction between all these things, which in effect define climate — as well as use archive information to model climates from the past, in order to make predictions for the future.

As long as we are unable to give a sound explanation to this recent GW episode, predictions for the future based on computer models (incredibly intelligent though these may be) will sound rather unreliable to me.