Two comments — One, the 2001
model predictions thus far have turned out to be quite accurate when compared to real world climate changes.
Two comments — One, the 2001
model predictions thus far have turned out to be quite accurate when compared to real world climate changes.
Not exact matches
Most of the time, Occam's Razor is a conservative tool, cutting out crazy, complicated constructions and assuring that hypotheses are grounded in the science of the day,
thus yielding «normal» science:
models of explanation and
prediction.
The researchers believe this
model better reflects the complexities of social species — in comparison to other
models that do not consider the social organization of populations — and
thus allows field biologist to test specific
predictions about the effects of sociality.
Thus, Ellis»
model of time retains enough of the block universe to match with relativity's
predictions, but without needing to take Einstein's drastic last step of assuming that the fourth dimension is solidified into the infinite future.
Thus, this
prediction model can not account for 55 % of the causes of these scores!!
In here DK shows that even if we know and understand fully the dynamics of a system we can not predict in the longterm via deterministic
models and
thus design and decision - making can not depend on such
predictions.
The IPCC / AR4 failed to discuss this requirement, and
thus, misled the impacts and policy communities on what is the current state of multi-decadal climate
prediction modeling.
Projections of these changes of risk using
models in which changes in the background climate are incorporated, and applied using
models that do a fair job at the short time scale (like high resolution weather
prediction, or hydrological discharge, or...) is
thus a viable procedure, and does yield added value.
Or maybe, «As shown in Figures 1.4 and 1.5, since the end of the 1992 Pinatubo volcano,
models have predicted a steady upward trend in global average temperatures, but the observed series have been comparatively trendless, and
thus the range of
model warming
predictions since the early 1990s can be seen to have been biased towards more warming than was subsequently observed.»
For example, hydrological drought is closely related to human activities, such as irrigation,
thus accurate
prediction necessitates the
modeling of human activities.
=== > Fifth, we know that the $ billion $ super computer climate
models used by these same scientists are fatally flawed,
thus absolutely worthless regarding future global and regional climate
predictions...
The data will also help validate the wind
predictions derived from computer
models, which have
thus far relied on extremely limited real - world information.
``... the credibility of these computer
model predictions took a significant hit in June 2007 when Dr. Jim Renwick, a top UN IPCC scientist, admitted that climate
models do not account for half the variability in nature and
thus are not reliable.
Computational restrictions have
thus far restricted the uncertainty space explored in
model simulations, so uncertainty in climate
predictions may well increase even as computational power increases.
Thus,
predictions of future trajectories of pH in coastal ecosystems are still highly uncertain even though
model predictions can provide reliable
predictions for the future trajectories of open - ocean pH and, thereby, the open - ocean end - member affecting coastal pH. Moreover, we argue that even the expectation that the component of coastal pH change associated with OA from anthropogenic CO2 will follow the same pattern as that in the open ocean is not necessarily supported.
Thus, using various kinds of climate
model ensembles including both MMEs and SMEs, we may expect to reduce uncertainties in climate
prediction in the future.
These
models can now simulate the last hundred years quite well, and
thus are useful for broadscale
predictions of the future.»
They find that the tropical hotspot does exist, that the
models predictions of this tropic hotspot in the tropical tropospheric trends
thus fit.