Model projections refer to predictions made by mathematical or computer models to estimate future outcomes. These projections are based on certain assumptions and calculations using available data. They help us understand what might happen in the future and make informed decisions, like predicting climate change or economic growth. However, it's important to remember that
model projections are not certain and can vary depending on the accuracy of the data and assumptions used in the model.
Full definition
Previous
climate model projections of climate change accounted for external forcing from natural and anthropogenic sources but did not attempt to predict internally generated natural variability.
Several media outlets are reporting that new research shows climate
model projections of rainfall extremes may be «flawed» or «wrong».
As the basis for the chapter to follow, we provide summaries of the scaled - down global climate
model projections for each of these climate variables below.
Climate
model projections suggest that by year 2100, both intense drought and flooding may increase in frequency by at least 50 percent.
Model projections show that climate change will impact water resources availability and will increase water temperatures in many regions of the world.
... virtually all climate -
model projections indicate that warmer springs and summers will occur over the region in coming decades.
However, when
comparing model projections to observed temperatures over just a decade or two, the short - term noise can play a significant role.
Do you think knowledge of «absolute truth» global average temperature would help to evaluate
which model projections are closer to reality?
His reading of climate
model projections also doesn't mention the persistent uncertainty about how much warming a given rise in greenhouse gas concentrations could produce.
Model projections conducted by other studies expect much higher carbon release rates — from 100 to 900 times greater — for its release during the upcoming 90 years.
Given the uncertainty in climate projections, there can be surprises that may cause more dramatic disruptions than anticipated from the most
probable model projections.
Do
model projections tend to show us areas that will see more storm activity over the coming century as global temperatures warm?
The
IPCC model projections of future warming based on the varios SRES and human emissions only (both GHG warming and aerosol cooling, but no natural influences) are shown in Figure 6.
The paper is, as it says, all about increasing skill: making better projections of future warming with narrower ranges by
constraining model projections with observations.
Given the fact that observations have continued to move away from
model projections based on a sensitivity of 4.2 C per doubling of CO2 (Scenario B), to what extent can we rule out, or at least consider as highly unlikely, sensitivities of 4.5 C or higher?
The IPCC
modeled its projections over different scenarios — business as usual, minor increases in voluntary action to curb emissions, major economic transformation to clean energy, and so on.
Using
modelled projections on temperature and rainfall, the study's results could also be further aggravated by unpredictable factors such as crop pests, severe droughts and water shortages.
The extra data spanning many thousands of years that this study uncovers will go a long way to
matching model projections with past observations, helping scientists identify the most accurate models for making predictions of future climate change.
Figure 3: Observed global temperatures since 1980 compared to IPCC
AR4 model projections for the business - as - usual A1B scenario.
Phrases with «model projections»