Sentences with phrase «model projections of»

For reference, we project replacement rates for future retirees using MINT model projections of future earnings, marital patterns, savings and wealth accumulation, and other factors.

2007/03/26: Science: Model Projections of an Imminent Transition to a More Arid Climate in Southwestern North America by Richard Seager et al..

Lower map shows model projections of the change in storage by 2100 as a result of nitrogen and phosphorus limits, under a high emissions scenario (RCP8.5).

An alternative approach uses simple climate model projections of global warming under stabilisation to scale AOGCM patterns of climate change assuming unmitigated emissions, and then uses the resulting scenarios to assess regional impacts (e.g., Bakkenes et al., 2006).

PLUMES (funded by the Academy of Finland), «Pathways linking uncertainties in model projections of climate and its effects», consortium partner leader, 2014 — 2018

2007/04/17: GRL: Increased tropical Atlantic wind shear in model projections of global warming by Gabriel A. Vecchi & Brian J. Soden

Figure 1 shows the 2007 IPCC Report model projections of changes in precipitation for the decade from 2090 — 2099 compared to the pattern for 1980 — 1999.

None of these could have been caused by an increase in atmospheric CO2, Model projections of warming during recent decades have greatly exceeded what has been observed, The modelling community has openly acknowledged that the ability of existing models to simulate past climates is due to numerous arbitrary tuning adjustments, Observations show no statistically valid trends in flooding or drought, and no meaningful acceleration whatsoever of pre-existing long term sea level rise (about 6 inches per century) worldwide, Current carbon dioxide levels, around 400 parts per million are still very small compared to the averages over geological history, when thousands of parts per million prevailed, and when life flourished on land and in the oceans.

In a 2012 study, Williams and his colleagues looked at past tree ring samples from the Southwest in the context of both past droughts and climate model projections of VPD.

New climate model projections of the world's coral reefs reveal which reefs will be hit first by annual coral bleaching, an event that poses the gravest threat to one of the Earth's most important ecosystems.

Thus changing the offset has the potential to change more than just whether they appear to agree, this change appears to invalidate a major explanation and basis for confidence in model projections of AR4.

Yet, model projections of future global warming vary, because of differing estimates of population growth, economic activity, greenhouse gas emission rates, changes in atmospheric particulate concentrations and their effects, and also because of uncertainties in climate models.

For example, to assess confidence in model projections of the Australian climate, the metrics would need to include some measures of the quality of ENSO simulation because the Australian climate depends much on this variability (see Section 11.

More moderate versions of this theory rely primarily on climate model projections of sea ice and acknowledge a significant amount of noise from interannual variability.

Overpeck is part of a research team that is using statistical techniques to narrow down divergent model projections of how much average water flow in the Colorado River will decrease by 2050.

Model projections of an imminent transition to a more arid climate in southwestern North America

Therefore, we can use the covariation of TLC reflection with temperature obtained from observations of the present climate to constrain model projections of ECS.

of the present climate to constrain model projections of ECS.

[8] R. Seager et al., «Model projections of an imminent transition to a more arid climate in southwestern North America,» Science, vol.

1)... to argue that the observed global mean temperature anomalies of the past decade falsifies the model projections of global mean temperature change, as contrarians have been fond of claiming, is clearly wrong.

But what with evidence somewhat lacking on positive CO2 feed backs, the present temperature plateau continuing, model projections of warming way out with observation, the analogy appears a bit, well, Ehrlichean, seems to me.And then there's the bleeding of economies by costs of CO2 reduction measures and subsidizing ineffectual, (evidence indicates even un-environmental) renewable energy policies, no gain for lotsa» pain.

This is an important façade for the IPCC to keep up, for without the overheated climate model projections of future climate change, the issue would be a lot less politically interesting (and government money could be used for other things... or simply not taken from taxpayers in the first place).

Without the exaggerated alarm conjured from overly pessimistic climate model projections of climate change from carbon dioxide emissions, fossil fuels — coal, oil, gas — would regain their image as the celebrated agents of prosperity that they are, rather than being labeled as pernicious agents of our destruction.

Model projections of the IPCC SRES scenarios give a global mean sea - level rise of 0.09 to 0.88 m by 2100, with sea level rising at rates circa 2 to 4 times faster than those of the present day (EEA, 2004b; Meehl et al., 2007).

And again: I don't think that real - world adaptation measures are solely based on model projections of future climate, nor that the only role of climate predictions is to support adaptation design.

Based on the rather vast uncertainties in aerosol forcing, and the substantial discrepancies between model projections of ocean heat uptake and measured heat uptake (ARGO), it strikes me as bizarre that the IPCC insists on excluding the possibility of quite low sensitivity, when there is a wealth of evidence for fairly low sensitivity.

This is quite different from model projections of globally averaged anomalies from a very large number of stations.

(3) Satellite temperature data says that climate models are warming too fast in the troposphere, therefore model projections of precipitation change are systematically biased.

Their work encompasses a range of problems and time scales: from five - day model predictions of hurricane track and intensity, to understanding the causes of changes in extremes over the past century, to building new climate prediction models for seamless predictions out to the next several years, to earth system model projections of human - caused changes in various extremes (heat waves, hurricanes, droughts, etc.) over the coming century.

The IPCC model projections of future warming based on the varios SRES and human emissions only (both GHG warming and aerosol cooling, but no natural influences) are shown in Figure 6.

See Figure 3 at this link which shows a comparison of model projections of the evolution of Arctic sea ice with the observations overlaid (updated from Stroeve et al., 2007).

When these past megadroughts are compared side - by - side with computer model projections of the 21st century, both the moderate and business - as - usual emissions scenarios are drier, and the risk of droughts lasting 30 years or longer increases significantly.

This is unexpected from recent theoretical prediction and model projections of the 21st century.

J. Yin, M.E. Schlesinger, and R.J. Stouffer, «Model projections of rapid sea - level rise on the northeast coast of the United States», Nature Geosci, vol.

At Jim Hansen's now famous congressional testimony given in the hot summer of 1988, he showed GISS model projections of continued global warming assuming further increases in human produced greenhouse gases.

In the original post, Pielke quoted liberally from Weart before concluding: «So a warming Antarctica and a cooling Antarctica are both «consistent with» model projections of global warming.»

A section of the piece on an emerging disconnect between climate model projections of warming and observations makes it clear that climate modelers have plenty of work to do.

Such a tendency is observed with other variables and is consistent with model projections of a warmer planet.

You speak of heat going into the oceans, but didn't the last IPCC report show model projections of ocean heat content vs observations, and there was no extra heat in the oceans?

We don't compare observations with the same time period in the models (i.e. the same start and stop dates), but to all model projections of the same time length (i.e. 60 - month to 180 - month) trends from the projected data from 2001 - 2020 (from the A1B run)(the trends of a particular length are calculated successively, in one month steps from 2001 to 2020).

The impacts I listed above are not based on computer model projections of what things will look like in 100 years, they are things that the average person can see and witness right now.

p.s. To compare to Vahrenholt's forecast, here's a comparison of earlier model projections of global temperature for the IPCC (prediction with the CMIP3 model ensemble used in the 4th IPCC assessment report, published in 2007) with the actual changes in temperature (the four colored curves).

Using several federal databases, the authors examine the current context and model projections of future trends under several different assumptions about factors influencing supply and demand, including new entrants, re-entrants, projected hires, and attrition rates.

The analysis of processes contributing to climate feedbacks in models and recent studies based on large ensembles of models suggest that in the future it may be possible to use observations to narrow the current spread in model projections of climate change.

You speak of heat going into the oceans, but didn't the last IPCC report show model projections of ocean heat content vs observations, and there was no extra heat in the oceans?

Several media outlets are reporting that new research shows climate model projections of rainfall extremes may be «flawed» or «wrong».

Previous climate model projections of climate change accounted for external forcing from natural and anthropogenic sources but did not attempt to predict internally generated natural variability.

Understanding how well climate models represent these processes will help reduce uncertainties in the model projections of the effects of global warming on the world's water cycle.

«What's up next is to examine the model projections of the future and see what they imply about what might be in store as far as further increases in extreme weather are concerned.»

They brought up that they are skeptical of the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) reports and of any model projections of climate change.