I agree that the the samller the effective heat capacity, the more rapidly will
the model reach equilibrium, but I do not understand how that lead to conclude «and the closer TCR will be to ECS».
The smaller the effective heat capacity, the more rapidly will
the model reach equilibrium, and the closer TCR will be to ECS.
In models, the ocean heat uptake is not quite well represented in transient simulations while in long term simulations (assuming that
model reaches equilibrium), ocean heat uptake may be well represented.
Not exact matches
The Enhanced GH Effects
model for adding GHGs FAILS to account for the gases
reaching equilibrium temperature per the gas law, and then refusing to accept more energy absorption.
The approximately 20 - year lag (between atmospheric CO2 concentration change and
reaching equilibrium temperature) is an emerging property (just like sensitivity) of the global climate system in the GCM
models used in the paper I linked to above, if I understood it correctly.
Not only do you («you» as in Victor and not the general you, because I presume there are people who actually
model these things and may know the answer) not know how large the
equilibrium response would be, but you don't know if the boundary proposed by your argument (cognate to the
equilibrium response) had been
reached over that period.
(It is to be noted that the same
models predict a significant delay until
equilibrium is
reached, due to the large heat capacity of the Southern ocean.
Climate and terrestrial variables (LAI, temperature, precipitation)
reach equilibrium after approximately 20 years of
model spin up.
Show me the empirical data, based on real - time physical observations or reproducible experimentation (NOT climate
model runs), which support the premise that GH warming requires decades or even centuries to
reach «
equilibrium».
The effects of 2xCO2 can not be measured, as you appear to state *, since we can't know that the
equilibrium has been
reached because we don't and will never fully understand the earth system (which certainly isn't described fully by the
model FG used).
So fairly easy to find what happens if say solar is S W / m ^ 2 and DLR is X W / m ^ 2 + / - Y. Well — a bit painful because the
model has to be run for long enough to
reach equilibrium..
For the IPCC experiments then the
models are run with fixed 1860 conditions for a spin - up (ideally until they
reach a steady
equilibrium).