Sentences with phrase «model realisation»

If the error for different models is random with zero mean, then sampling theory shows that this model average will yield a better estimate of the signal than any single model realisation.

This is not a very strong statement though, and more work could perhaps be done to construct a better forecast using the underlying trends in the models and statistical models for the ENSO and internal variability components inferred from observations, rather than purely from model realisations.

Not exact matches

The revival of group selection is a result of better models and experimental studies showing it is indeed possible, as well as the realisation by biologists that today's individuals are yesterday's groups.

A full realisation of the medical potential of stem cells for human health will likely depend on a reinforcement of, and development of a whole continuum of studies ranging from those in vivo using model organisms, to cell - based therapies in the clinic.

Created utilising many of the same techniques as applied in the development of Aston Martin production sports cars — hand sketches and 3D modelling, followed by full realisation in the virtual world — DP - 100 provides an exceptional level of detail with a fully functioning suspension system and state - of - the - art electronics.

First, I applied the method to a business model which is suited to that method (easy to understand, moated businesses, with a dominant market position and strong long - term growth prospects derived from both business volume growth as well as realisation growth).

Except value stocks are often mired in bad management, bad business models, bad industries & dreadful capital allocation — with little hope of compounding their intrinsic value — the best we can hope for is a realisation of intrinsic value.

Since 2011, Melgaard and Snøhetta have exchanged architectural drawings, models and documents as they work towards the realisation of a purpose - built house, where Melgaard will live and work in Oslo, Norway.

I did so, and in so doing pointed out a number of problems in the M&N paper (comparing the ensemble mean of the GCM simulations with a single realisation from the real world, and ignoring the fact that the single GCM realisations showed very similar levels of «contamination», misunderstandings of the relationships between model versions, continued use of a flawed experimental design etc.).

[Response: The model ensemble is supposed to be a collection of possible realisations given the appropriate forcing.

That defines the likelihood that one realisation (i.e. the real world) is conceivably drawn from the distribution defined by the models.

With «mean climate», surely the model ensemble mean is meant, however the «real data» to base the tuning on by definition is restricted to the single realisation of Earth's climate (including cloud cover caused by, for instance, multi-decadal oscillations instead of AGW feedback).

Recently I have been looking at the climate models collected in the CMIP3 archive which have been analysed and assessed in IPCC and it is very interesting to see how the forced changes — i.e. the changes driven the external factors such as greenhouse gases, tropospheric aerosols, solar forcing and stratospheric volcanic aerosols drive the forced response in the models (which you can see by averaging out several simulations of the same model with the same forcing)-- differ from the internal variability, such as associated with variations of the North Atlantic and the ENSO etc, which you can see by looking at individual realisations of a particular model and how it differs from the ensemble mean.

We can derive the underlying trend related to external forcings from the GCMs — for each model, the underlying trend can be derived from the ensemble mean (averaging over the different phases of ENSO in each simulation), and looking at the spread in the ensemble mean trend across models gives information about the uncertainties in the model response (the «structural» uncertainty) and also about the forcing uncertainty — since models will (in practice) have slightly different realisations of the (uncertain) net forcing (principally related to aerosols).

In addition to developing the technical and economical concept, we supervise the realisation phase and offer different financing and partnering models.

I think Tomas underestimates by quite a bit the numbers of scientists who are coming to a realisation of chaos in both climate and models.

an analysis of the full suite of CMIP5 historical simulations (augmented for the period 2006 - 2012 by RCP4.5 simulations, Section 9.3.2) reveals that 111 out of 114 realisations show a GMST trend over 1998 - 2012 that is higher than the entire HadCRUT4 trend ensemble... During the 15 - year period beginning in 1998, the ensemble of HadCRUT4 GMST trends lies below almost all model - simulated trends whereas during the 15 - year period ending in 1998, it lies above 93 out of 114 modelled trends.

Note that the model future temperature realisation in the last plot has a near decade - long «pause» in the 2030s.

Obtain future stochastic projections by extending the trend (e.g. by extrapolation) and adding back random «realisations» of the noise model («Monte Carlo simulation»).

They took a small number of long station records and compared them to co-located grid points in single realisations of a few models and correlate their annual and longer term means.

The answer to their effective question — are very local single realisations of weather coherent across observations and models?

The ensemble average over the three realisations, also shown in the diagram, is an estimate of the model s forced climate change where some of this natural variability has been averaged out.

For independent realisations, the natural variability noise is reduced by the ensemble averaging (averaging to zero for a large enough ensemble) so that -LCB- T -RCB- is an improved estimate of the model s forced climate change Tf.

To continue relating some of the issues of «fault» within the «Terrestrial Greenhouse based Climate models», apart from the obvious discrepancies of the included materials behavior to those actually presented, there is the further exasperations from the realisation of the «double» inclusion of kinetic energy within the calculations».

, and since he knows that individual realisations of the GISS model come up with fits to the «socio - economic» variables as good as he has calculated in the real world, the practical significance of these continued variations is zero.

Dr. Curry argued on the feedback thread that single model runs (what I would refer to as realisations) were not informative due to the fact that a single run could look very different due to natural variability.

With the rising number of female lawyers, together with cloud based technology and a growing realisation that the rainmakers in a law firm should be properly rewarded for their contributions, the traditional model of a law firm is looking more and more archaic in a more commercial age.