Sentences with phrase «model simulations give»

The most recent climate model simulations give a range of results for changes in global average temperature.

Better atmospheric model simulations give planners the tools to forecast the probability of extreme weather and climate events.

This can involve «perfect model» experiments (where you test to see whether you can predict the evolution of a model simulation given only what we know about the real world), or hindcasts (as used by K08), and only where there is demonstrated skill is there any point in making a prediction for the real world.

Not exact matches

The simulation model gives Arsenal a 61.3 % to win and they are defending 1.9 expected points in this match.

In this study, the authors describe a computer model that can be used to calculate the probability that the presence of two Zika cases in a given area will lead to an epidemic, based on real - time simulations of all the counties in the state of Texas.

The small - scale processes giving rise to thunderstorms make their direct simulation in climate models impossible given current computing power.

Appropriators in the Senate, meanwhile, endorsed plans for a center dedicated to the modeling and simulation of nuclear reactors, and gave qualified support to two more: A hub to make fuels directly from sunlight and another on energy - efficient buildings.

Yet, this model of the quake does not match up well with the information from the ocean floor sensors — incorporating that data into future computer simulations should give a better picture of what actually happened during the massive tectonic event.

J. T. Wang, an engineer at GM and a lead technical adviser to the GHBMC, speculates that the virtual - body model may eventually run fast enough to create real - time simulations that enable vehicles with such systems to give a more specific picture of the crash scene.

Likewise, while models can not represent the climate system perfectly (thus the uncertainly in how much the Earth will warm for a given amount of emissions), climate simulations are checked and re-checked against real - world observations and are an established tool in understanding the atmosphere.

Validation of its high - fidelity model and the predictive accuracy of its new simulation methods are giving GE the ability to better integrate simulation directly into its product design cycle.

One of the key parameters in these simulation models are absolute cross sections, which give the probability of interaction between a single LEE and a target molecule.

Janka's group recently won a five - year, $ 4 million grant to give the 3 - D model higher resolution and to push the simulation «backward in time, and also forward, linking the model to observed supernova remnants,» he says.

Because this number of vehicles exceeds the present rush hour figure and the software can run the simulation five times faster than real life, researchers believe that given real roadside data, the model will produce accurate forecasts.

The model in question didn't give a particularly good simulation of the present - day climate, but one could say the same about every model if one was picky enough...

Points illustrate the mean probability that a tiger population of given starting size will decline to extinction over 1,000 model simulations both with canine distemper virus (CDV) infection (black dots) and a control scenario without CDV (open diamonds).

Our Study Island standards mastery products also give students access to virtual labs and dynamic simulations that model real - world systems.

Recommended Strategies: Intrinsic Provide constructive and consistent feedback Give choices, focus on interests Vary teaching styles to accommodate learning styles Provide for active and experiential learning (e.g., role plays, simulations, case studies, projects, internships) Use bibliotherapy and biographies Use mentorships and role models Adopt an education that is multicultural — culturally relevant and personally meaningful, an education that provides insight and self - understanding Have nurturing, affirming classrooms

Nor will the handling model: not the most realistic simulation in racing games, but a very entertaining and physically convincing «simcade» hybrid, with just the right amount of give in the grip and a wealth of feedback delivered through the hands, eyes and ears.

The ASCII - based fantasy management game with a simulation model so detailed it gives rise to thousands of emergent stories, Dwarf Fortress is unlike anything else, provided you're prepared to get to grips with its unfriendly interface.

The fact that a wide range of different models (including ours) give a reasonably good simulation of the past millennium with this forcing was already shown in the IPCC AR4, see Figs. 6.13 and 6.14.

I'll give an example using the MPI - ESM - P model simulation of the past millennium.

Surprisingly, an average over these simulations gives a better match to climatological observations than any single model.

Projections for the these variables are given for different model simulations of climate scenarios.

About models and solar forcing GCM's give some rather good simulation of past temperatures.

In our internal development process, this was fixed and, combined with a few more tweaks in the ocean model, gives a better simulation of ocean climatology.

P.S., apropos «Running multiple simulations with a climate model is always going to give results that have some inherent scatter...»

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0628.1 In our discussion exploring the (very minor) differences in results when using different datasets we said: - «Dataset creation approaches that infill missing data areas may give overconfidence to climate changes in regions where there are no direct measurements, when compared with model simulations that have data in those regions.»

It is defined from an even more idealised simulation (abrupt4xCO2) than either the 1 % CO2 experiment, and in almost every model gives an underestimate of the equilibrium value.

We can derive the underlying trend related to external forcings from the GCMs — for each model, the underlying trend can be derived from the ensemble mean (averaging over the different phases of ENSO in each simulation), and looking at the spread in the ensemble mean trend across models gives information about the uncertainties in the model response (the «structural» uncertainty) and also about the forcing uncertainty — since models will (in practice) have slightly different realisations of the (uncertain) net forcing (principally related to aerosols).

Chris E Forest June 26, 2012 at 10:41 am Reply In working with large climate model datasets, data archiving was not feasible given resources available in 2003 when simulations were run to produce the data in Forest et al. (2006).

In working with large climate model datasets, data archiving was not feasible given resources available in 2003 when simulations were run to produce the data in Forest et al. (2006).

So the two estimates (with and without solar forcing) give me a range of 0.7 C to 1.4 C for the 2xCO2 climate sensitivity, based on actually observed CO2 and temperature records, rather than model simulations and assumptions.

Close agreement of observed temperature change with simulations for the most realistic climate forcing (scenario B) is accidental, given the large unforced variability in both model and real world.

«If your model can not simulate these kinds of features then it won't give you a realistic simulation of primary production,» says Dr Feng.

Hence it seems that the large coupled global climate model simulations are given the predominant weighting in the assessment.

Well the take away message seems that given the large range of paleoclimate reconstructions, you can cherry pick them to agree ok with your model simulations.

In this way, we can obtain the expected range of projected climate trends using the interannual statistics of the observed NAO record in combination with the model's radiatively - forced response (given by the ensemble - mean of the 40 simulations).

For the majority of this paper, we run one simulation for each selected emission pathway, using the parameters that were previously found to give the best agreement with observations and more complex models.

It is worth noting that the average interannual characteristics of the model's NAO and associated SAT and P impacts do not change appreciably between the pre-industrial period (as given by the coupled control simulation: recall Fig. 6a, c) and the historical (Fig. 5a, c) or future (2016 — 2045: Figs.

Just looking at the AR4 and early AR5 simulations, it looks as if the different climate models give a wide range of answers.

Given the existence of many other climate models, one of the most important tests was the comparison of C - ROADS output to the output of disaggregated simulations from the SRES database (e.g., MAGICC) given a range of emissions input scenaGiven the existence of many other climate models, one of the most important tests was the comparison of C - ROADS output to the output of disaggregated simulations from the SRES database (e.g., MAGICC) given a range of emissions input scenagiven a range of emissions input scenarios.

But in a given model you can often find ways of altering the model's climate sensitivity through the sub-grid convection and cloud schemes that affect cloud feedback, but you have to tread carefully because the cloud simulation exerts a powerful control on the atmospheric circulation, top - of - atmosphere (TOA) and surface radiative flux patterns, the tropical precipitation distribution, etc..

Climate model simulations, when compared with 21st century observations seem to be running too hot, giving creedence to the lower observation - based sensitivity values.

I saw on klimazwiebel that Ed Hawkins pointed out that not all the CMIP5 models were used in the simulation; from the numbers he gave (43 models?)

It occurs to me to wonder whether this error in the GISS - E2 - R ocean mixing parameterisation, which gave rise to AMOC instability in the Pliocene simulation, might possibly account for the model's behaviour in LU run 1.

Finally, the researchers examined collections of model simulations with and without human emissions factored in to understand to what degree human emissions were responsible for a given impact, by comparing these simulations against observed trends.

That is because, unlike for most IPCC model - based estimates, each available model - simulation — rather than each model — is given an equal weighting.

It is true that the model replications of past conditions are not perfect, which is to be expected given the chaotic variations of the climate about its now - changing baseline; however, the ensemble of model simulations has been tested against previously observed perturbations to climate (such as the response to volcanic eruptions) and overall they correspond well with what is observed to occur.

It even is principally possible that, for a given 15 - year time period, the temperature trend of one simulation with a model ended up in the «best» composite for this time period, and the temperature trend of another simulation with the same model ended up in the «worst» composite of the same time period.